The US president tightens oil sanctions and rules out a humanitarian crisis

14ymedio, Havana, February 1, 2025 — US President Donald Trump asserted this Saturday that Cuba will ultimately seek a “deal” with Washington following the tightening of sanctions against countries that supply oil to the island, and affirmed that this process would allow the country to “be free again.” The declarations, made aboard Air Force One, confirm a strategy of direct pressure on a regime incapable of sustaining its energy system without external aid
“There doesn’t have to be a humanitarian crisis,” Trump said when asked about the warning from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who cautioned about the social impact of cutting off supplies. “I think they’ll probably come to us and want to make a deal. So Cuba will be free again,” the president added, convinced that the gravity of the situation and common sense will force Havana to the negotiating table.
Trump went further in describing the country’s current state. “Cuba is going to collapse pretty soon. Cuba is really a nation that is very close to collapse,” he stated, an assessment that aligns with daily reality: prolonged blackouts, paralyzed transportation, shut-down industries, and hospitals operating at their limits. However, the Cuban government persists with the rhetoric of “heroism” and the “besieged plaza.” President Miguel Díaz-Canel speaks of peace and dialogue, but “without concessions.”
“Cuba lived for many years off large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela… but not anymore.”
On Thursday, the White House formalized its offensive by signing an executive order imposing tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. The measure seeks to cut off the regime’s last remaining energy supply channels and increase the political and economic cost for its allies. Trump made it clear that this was not a symbolic continue reading
In that same message, the president emphasized the structural dependence of Castroism. “Cuba lived for many years off large quantities of oil and money from Venezuela… but not anymore,” he stated. The national economy was never self-sufficient and was sustained, first, by Soviet subsidies and, later, by Venezuelan support.
Trump insisted that the island is in a “very bad” situation because that flow of resources has been interrupted. The collapse of the Chavista model and international pressure on Caracas have drastically reduced the shipment of subsidized crude oil, exposing the fragility of the Cuban energy system .
The opacity of the Cuban government makes it impossible to know whether it is willing to negotiate or whether, once again, it will choose to cling to the rhetoric of resistance.
The US president also referred to Mexico, stating that Sheinbaum was “very good” and that he asked her to stop sending oil to Cuba. Although the Mexican government has insisted that its aid is based on “humanitarian” reasons, it has acknowledged diplomatic contacts with Washington and the search for “alternatives” to support the Cuban people without exposing itself to sanctions.
From Havana, Díaz-Canel called the measure “fascist” and denounced an alleged attempt to provoke a deliberate crisis. But this tactic sounds worn out once again. After more than six decades of invoking the “blockade” as the automatic explanation for all its failures, the regime has robbed the word of its power and credibility. Like the boy who cried wolf, now that the net is finally closing in, the alarm no longer has any international impact.
Blackouts have become the most evident symbol of the system’s failure. During peak demand, more than half the country is plunged into darkness. The government manages the shortages with “scheduled” power cuts that paralyze daily life and deepen social discontent, while continuing to blame the embargo for all the country’s problems and avoiding accountability for its own mismanagement.
Trump’s strategy is to use economic pressure to force a change in the regime’s behavior. The Cuban government’s opacity makes it impossible to know whether it is willing to negotiate or whether, once again, it will cling to the rhetoric of resistance, shifting the cost of the crisis onto the population rather than relinquish power or introduce real reforms.
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