Fuel shortages and breakdowns at power plants are pushing Cuba’s electrical system to its most critical level.
Neither the optimistic tone nor the attempts at calm by Bernardo Espinosa—the state-run journalist in charge of presenting the daily blackout report—manage to conceal the magnitude of the crisis. This Saturday, Cuba will face power outages throughout the day, simultaneously affecting up to 63% of the country at peak demand, the highest percentage recorded so far.
Although the island has suffered massive blackouts and abrupt system failures on other occasions, the figure announced by the state-owned company Unión Eléctrica (UNE) marks a record within the framework of scheduled outages. It is the second highest figure documented so far in January, as just ten days ago a 62% outage was predicted. It is also the worst figure since 2022, when official data on power outages began to be systematically published.
Far from an unforeseen collapse, the Government acknowledges that more than half of the country will be disconnected in a planned manner, an implicit admission that the energy system is losing the capacity every day to sustain basic demand and rationing schemes are no longer sufficient.
Since mid-2024, Cuba has been experiencing an energy crisis exacerbated by frequent breakdowns at its aging thermoelectric power plants and a lack of foreign currency to import the fuel needed for its distributed generation facilities. In recent weeks, this situation has been further complicated by the loss of Venezuela as its main source of energy supplies and by pressure on Mexico, which has further limited the authorities’ room for maneuver.
The figure announced by the state-owned company Unión Eléctrica marks a record within the scheme of scheduled outages.
For Saturday’s peak hours – the late afternoon and evening – the UNE (National Union of Electricity Companies) estimates a generation capacity of just 1,160 megawatts (MW), compared to a peak demand estimated at 3,040 MW. The deficit, the gap between available and required energy, will reach 1,880 MW, while the planned outages, that is, the amount that will be deliberately disconnected from the system, will reach 1,910 MW.
Behind these figures lies an exhausted thermoelectric system. Eight of the 16 operational generating units remain out of service due to breakdowns or maintenance. This source of generation, under normal conditions, provides around 40% of the country’s energy mix, so every failure has an immediate impact on supply.
Espinosa insisted that the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant would only be out of service for an estimated 96 hours. However, engineer Félix Estrada, director of the National Load Dispatch Center, was much less certain that the work would be completed within the announced timeframe, a caution that reflects the accumulated experience of delays and missed deadlines.
Meanwhile, the UNE has stopped publishing a key piece of data in its daily reports: the number of distributed generation plants—the generators—that are not operating due to a lack of fuel or lubricants. This omission makes it impossible to accurately measure the impact of the loss of Venezuelan oil, although the other indicators point to a sustained increase in the number of idled generators, reaching record levels.
The energy sector has suffered from decades of underfunding, lack of maintenance and absence of structural investment, all within a system controlled by the State since 1959, without transparency or accountability.
The increasingly widespread and frequently scheduled power outages are having a devastating effect on the economy, which has contracted by more than 15% since 2020, according to official figures. Power outages have also been a key factor in the social protests of recent years, directly impacting daily life, food production, and the functioning of essential services.
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