Translating Cuba

the constitutional order and taking control of the country. The collective punishment applied to us Cubans will not diminish the full exercise of sovereignty nor creativity in the face of the blockade and the energy siege. Any aggression from imperialism will clash with the irreducible will of the Cuban people in defense of the independence of the Homeland.”

The foreign minister – the space also matters – attended Díaz-Canel’s appearance on Friday with a shadow seated behind him: that of Raúl Rodríguez Castro, El Cangrejo, the grandson of Raúl Castro tasked by his grandfather with monitoring political personnel, who occupied a seat behind the minister of foreign affairs both at the president’s meeting with the rest of his cabinet and at the subsequent press conference.

Díaz-Canel and Rodríguez are the only ones who have come out to confront the U.S. at this crucial moment in the negotiations, while the prime minister, Manuel Marrero, remains silent, and although nothing is written, it may be a clue for those who see that there is already nothing left to lose. Both concluded their respective posts yesterday with a “Cuba stands firm,” but the truth is that the regime is at the limit in two key aspects at this moment: popular support and the capacity to face an aggression by force.

Evidence of the first is seen every day in the streets of the Island. When night falls, pots clang; when the sun rises, graffiti appears: “Down with the dictatorship” “Díaz Canel singao [motherfucker].” The blackouts exceeding 30 consecutive hours; the shortage of drinking water, the use of charcoal for cooking, and the improvised garbage dumps on every corner have eroded any trace, if any remained, of sovereign pride. Those who convincingly call to resist are conspicuously absent, while those who demand, publicly or privately, that something happen now, whatever it may be, are plentiful.

But even if there were hands to defend the regime, the means are more than deficient. Not only because it faces one of the largest and best-armed armies in the world, but because it could not even resist a modest one. This Wednesday, the Spanish sports newspaper – yes, sports – AS publishes an exhaustive special on the precariousness of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) that lays the situation bare.

According to the article, the Air Force barely maintains about twenty aircraft in flying condition and frequently resorts to dismantling old units for spare parts, while the Navy is limited to a coastal fleet of about 33 vessels without ocean-going capacity. As for defense capabilities, the Island has S-125 Pechora systems, Soviet missiles from the 1950s updated last year by Belarus, along with 144 launchers as its best asset, since the rest is standard artillery and there are no drones. “In a war of drones and satellites, the Island is still fighting with its grandparents’ binoculars,” the text says.

“In a war of drones and satellites, the Island is still fighting with its grandparents’ binoculars,” the text says

The ground weapons –around 300 tanks– are described by the writer as “a rolling Soviet museum that anywhere else in the world would be scrap, but in Cuba is the backbone of defense.” As with the aircraft, parts are cannibalized to keep them running.

The best asset is personnel, which in principle amounts to 50,000 active soldiers, 39,000 in reserve, and 90,000 paramilitaries, including Territorial Troops and Defense Committees. It is the only option to attempt to resist a land invasion, but as the article warns, “the theoretical mobilization capacity exceeds one million people. Feeding, moving, and sustaining that million is another story.” In addition, among the many striking lines scattered throughout the text, it adds: “Cuba would not last even one night against a drone and satellite attack.”

The epic of resistance that Díaz-Canel has once again resorted to, in contrast to the pragmatism with which the Castros conduct negotiations, clashes with reality. Although it may also be that this is precisely the last role he has been assigned.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

that allows residents abroad to be partners or owners of small and medium-sized private enterprises.” The regulation was approved by Parliament in July 2024 but has never come into force.

“There is no current legislation published in the Official Gazette that allows residents abroad to be partners or owners of small and medium-sized private enterprises.”

“Even if both legal obstacles were resolved and assuming basic guarantees were adopted—legal stability, currency exchange facilities, and protection against expropriation—additional guarantees would be needed for foreign investment and small business modalities,” Monreal adds. In his view, this implies creating an independent and accessible dispute resolution mechanism (strengthened or hybrid national arbitration), a guarantee fund or insurance against political risks, and direct access to foreign trade and international banking.

This would entail, it is suggested, the creation of one or several Chambers of Commerce for private actors, transparency in authorization processes, a digital one-stop shop for emigrant partners, and commitments of non-retroactivity with a long grace period. “Without a legal framework with basic and additional guarantees that builds trust, many emigrants will prefer to continue sending remittances instead of investing directly, but that type of guarantee does not appear to be on the radar. One should not sell the bear’s skin before catching it,” he concludes.

His is not the only voice pointing out how premature the announcements are on their own. Ricardo Torres, author of Cuba Economic Review, told EFE that if Havana’s “intention” is to “send a signal, then it’s not bad.” However, from a technical standpoint, he says the proposals outlined are partial, incremental, insufficient, late, and heavily bureaucratic.

“None of these measures will change the state of affairs,” he adds. In his opinion, in addition to opening the economy and “creating institutions and regulatory capacity,” “a very strong signal would need to be sent that the paradigm has changed,” which would even imply changes in political leadership for reasons of “credibility.” On the table, according to several U.S. media outlets, is the departure of Miguel Díaz-Canel, demanded by the U.S., which, however, is not asking anything regarding the Castro family, according to sources from The New York Times and USA Today.

Tamarys Bahamonde, a Cuban professor at the City University of New York, has also weighed in, stating that Cuba does not need stopgaps but “medium- and long-term” policies to “resolve or correct the multiple crises” it faces. “Cuba now needs transformations so deep that speaking only of reforms is very limited. Cuba needs real changes in the economic, social, and political spheres,” she emphasizes.

In her opinion, these needs require “solid investors” capable of waiting for medium- or long-term returns, and she calls on the White House to begin lifting sanctions. “The experience of Venezuela and Iran has taught us that Washington’s objective is not democratization and regime change but economic-financial expansion and control,” she underscores.

“The experience of Venezuela and Iran has taught us that Washington’s objective is not democratization and regime change but economic-financial expansion and control.”

In her view, there is a clear loser: the people are bearing the full pressure of this tug-of-war. “They do not deserve this; they are the ones suffering,” she states.

The Spanish agency EFE also spoke with economist Pavel Vidal, a professor at the Pontifical Xavierian University in Cali, Colombia, and head of the Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances (Omfi). “The Cuban economy requires a broad stabilization and liberalization program that includes a new strategy of international integration, allowing it to generate exports to pay its debts and begin investing in a productive infrastructure that is practically in ruins,” he emphasizes. He adds that “much more is needed to show willingness for change and to build trust,” especially since the effects are minimal if sanctions are not eased and the oil blockade is not lifted.

Miguel Alejandro Hayes, of the Institute for Research on the Caribbean Basin, believes the reforms are not ambitious enough for Washington’s expectations, as they amount to little more than a “tactical readjustment” given the circumstances.

“The current model and its managers have demonstrated a structural inability to generate the resources needed to overcome the current situation,” he states. In his view, it is necessary to secure “international financing” and implement “a macroeconomic stabilization plan grounded in the restoration of infrastructure,” a key element for enabling large-scale sustainable growth.

The consulting firm Auge, which on its Telegram channel sees the new measure as a “clear” opportunity has been more positive with the uncertainty. “There is a flow of capital and knowledge outside the Island seeking to land in productive projects within the country. For the Cuban private sector, this means potential access to financing and strategic partners,” they state.

However, they also stress that “the challenge is implementation: having the measure published is not the same as having the investment carried out. Viability depends on proper migration classification, obtaining specific licenses, and legal structuring to protect both parties. It is not just about measures but about knowing how to take advantage of them in the context of each business. The theory, which is not yet directly written into regulations, requires well-guided practice.” The consulting firm has not missed the opportunity and offers its experience and analysis to Cubans both inside and outside the Island.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

Most reports on social media indicate that the earthquake was felt very strongly in areas near the epicenter, as well as in neighboring Santiago de Cuba, although no serious damage is known, and some residents reported having connectivity through Nauta Hogar and some electricity. “I was exhausted; the bed shook, and the noise woke me up. It’s the biggest earthquake I’ve felt in my life,” one user said. “The tremor was extremely strong; the movements were felt continuously. The electrical cables swayed like a kite. It sounded like a train moving forward dragging houses. Neighbors went out into the streets, others were sleeping and didn’t even notice. We’re waiting for aftershocks; damage is unknown; only comments and experiences remain,” added another.

In Santiago, where the tremor was also strongly felt, a microsystem remains in place using the Santiago Este and Pavón engines to supply healthcare centers.

If the good news of the night was the startup of the 10 de Octubre thermoelectric plant in Nuevitas, Camagüey, whose Unit 6 began contributing about 80 megawatts (MW) to the system after receiving external power, by morning, Unit 8 in Mariel, Unit 3 at Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, and the Antonio Guiteras plant were in the startup process, with the latter ready to begin ignition.

“Power may come and go in circuits that have already been restored while the system stabilizes,” authorities in Camagüey warned last night.

In Sancti Spíritus, according to sources from 14ymedio, security was at its highest last night, with surveillance at institutional buildings and mobilization at workplaces due to the risk of spontaneous demonstrations, although some employees resisted complying with the requirement. At this time, 71,221 customers have service, although authorities warn: “It is important to note that some circuits were restored and then affected again, although they did not include vital services,” all in an effort to balance the system.

In Matanzas, progress was theoretically broader, with 21% of the population – nearly 67,000 users – having service, including some areas of Cárdenas and the historic center of the provincial capital. Authorities there announced the sale of prepared food, water distribution via tanker trucks, and the “use of amateur radio systems to maintain communication between municipalities.”

In Villa Clara, there are 48 MW available at this time, and all municipalities have some electricity, except Corralillo and Ranchuelo. Hospitals in Santa Clara, Sagua la Grande, Caibarién, and Placetas have power, as do the Palmarito and Minerva-Ochoíta water systems, which are operational. The provincial electric company warned, however, that there will be no rotation of circuits until the major thermoelectric plants are synchronized.

In Las Tunas, reconnection occurred at 1 a.m., with 25 MW available at dawn. The official press emphasized that “for the first time in months, the fuel oil (Delicias) and diesel (Las Tunas) plants were synchronized simultaneously,” sending power toward Holguín to support the startup of the Felton thermoelectric plant.

In Holguín, where this plant is located, the connection was achieved after 6 a.m., with service in several circuits and illuminated areas in Mayarí, Nipe, Báguano, and Banes.

As happened during the last disconnection of the SEN, which left two-thirds of the Island in darkness two weeks ago, the lack of oil is complicating the initial startup of all systems, although most of the population can no longer distinguish between a general outage and a scheduled blackout due to shortages. “This can’t be endured anymore. Please, all of you leave, because none of you fulfill the responsibility of guaranteeing basic services to the people,” cried a woman from Guanabacoa on social media.

The causes of this outage are, this time, more unclear than usual. The general director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, Lázaro Guerra, told state television that the causes are under investigation and that “all system parameters are being analyzed” to identify what happened.

“So far, all parameters are normal,” he added, and noted that “no issues were reported in the generating units that were in service at the time of the blackout.”

Translated by Regina Anavy

______________________

COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

precisely those microsystems or “microislands” to serve specific areas.

Shortly after 3:30 in the afternoon, UNE reported that “microsystems in several territories” were beginning to operate, and twenty minutes later, they assured that the Energás plant, operated with the Canadian company Sherritt in Boca de Jaruco, already had “a generating unit in service.”

As is usual in similar situations, the authorities said that “the restoration will be done gradually as conditions in the National Electric System allow.”

The Mesa Redonda [Round Table] program announced that the interview with Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga would take place at 7:00 pm

The prolonged power outages since the most recent partial system failure, which have lasted more than three days in some areas, have reignited the flames of indignation across the island, which awoke this Monday after its tenth consecutive night of pot-banging protests. The climax of these protests occurred last Friday in Morón (Ciego de Ávila), where dozens of residents took to the streets chanting “Freedom.”

The march traveled through different areas of the city to the rhythm of banging pots and pans, reached a police unit and ended in front of the headquarters of the Communist Party of Cuba, where the protesters stormed the building, threw furniture and banners into the street and lit a bonfire in the middle of the public road.

Several people have been arrested for what the regime considers “acts of vandalism,” and security forces have been deployed across the country with the order of “zero impunity.”

The Mesa Redonda program announced that the interview with the Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga , announced last Friday by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, will take place at 7:00 pm, an unusual time, likely due to the total power outage. It is expected that during the interview, the Vice Minister, who is also the great-nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro, will provide details about what he already confirmed to NBC News: that Cubans abroad, including those residing in the United States, will be able to invest in private businesses on the island.

Translated by Regina Anavy

______________________

COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.