In addition to facing legal obstacles on the Island and in the U.S., it will be necessary to create guarantee mechanisms for potential investors.
14ymedio, March 17, 2026 – MADRID / The ball is in the U.S.’ court about whether it will respond or not to the changes announced this Monday by Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva, in several interviews with U.S. media and the Island’s official outlets. As the Minister of Foreign Investment and Foreign Trade himself has admitted, the announcements will come to nothing if Washington does not make a move, since embargo legislation prevents it. “The United States blockade is, without a doubt, an element that affects the development of these transformations,” the official stated.
“For Cuban residents in the U.S., the proclamation of an official Cuban measure is not enough. The approval of that government would be essential, along with the modification of restrictions on investments in Cuba, without requiring a specific license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac),” economist Pedro Monreal, based in Madrid, said on his X account.
The expert highlights a factor on the Cuban side that creates an inexplicable gap. The expansion of the private sector through emigrant investment “is based on a legal limbo,” he recalls, since “there is no current legislation published in the Official Gazette that allows residents abroad to be partners or owners of small and medium-sized private enterprises.” The regulation was approved by Parliament in July 2024 but has never come into force.
“There is no current legislation published in the Official Gazette that allows residents abroad to be partners or owners of small and medium-sized private enterprises.”
“Even if both legal obstacles were resolved and assuming basic guarantees were adopted—legal stability, currency exchange facilities, and protection against expropriation—additional guarantees would be needed for foreign investment and small business modalities,” Monreal adds. In his view, this implies creating an independent and accessible dispute resolution mechanism (strengthened or hybrid national arbitration), a guarantee fund or insurance against political risks, and direct access to foreign trade and international banking.
This would entail, it is suggested, the creation of one or several Chambers of Commerce for private actors, transparency in authorization processes, a digital one-stop shop for emigrant partners, and commitments of non-retroactivity with a long grace period. “Without a legal framework with basic and additional guarantees that builds trust, many emigrants will prefer to continue sending remittances instead of investing directly, but that type of guarantee does not appear to be on the radar. One should not sell the bear’s skin before catching it,” he concludes.
His is not the only voice pointing out how premature the announcements are on their own. Ricardo Torres, author of Cuba Economic Review, told EFE that if Havana’s “intention” is to “send a signal, then it’s not bad.” However, from a technical standpoint, he says the proposals outlined are partial, incremental, insufficient, late, and heavily bureaucratic.
“None of these measures will change the state of affairs,” he adds. In his opinion, in addition to opening the economy and “creating institutions and regulatory capacity,” “a very strong signal would need to be sent that the paradigm has changed,” which would even imply changes in political leadership for reasons of “credibility.” On the table, according to several U.S. media outlets, is the departure of Miguel Díaz-Canel, demanded by the U.S., which, however, is not asking anything regarding the Castro family, according to sources from The New York Times and USA Today.
Tamarys Bahamonde, a Cuban professor at the City University of New York, has also weighed in, stating that Cuba does not need stopgaps but “medium- and long-term” policies to “resolve or correct the multiple crises” it faces. “Cuba now needs transformations so deep that speaking only of reforms is very limited. Cuba needs real changes in the economic, social, and political spheres,” she emphasizes.
In her opinion, these needs require “solid investors” capable of waiting for medium- or long-term returns, and she calls on the White House to begin lifting sanctions. “The experience of Venezuela and Iran has taught us that Washington’s objective is not democratization and regime change but economic-financial expansion and control,” she underscores.
“The experience of Venezuela and Iran has taught us that Washington’s objective is not democratization and regime change but economic-financial expansion and control.”
In her view, there is a clear loser: the people are bearing the full pressure of this tug-of-war. “They do not deserve this; they are the ones suffering,” she states.
The Spanish agency EFE also spoke with economist Pavel Vidal, a professor at the Pontifical Xavierian University in Cali, Colombia, and head of the Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finances (Omfi). “The Cuban economy requires a broad stabilization and liberalization program that includes a new strategy of international integration, allowing it to generate exports to pay its debts and begin investing in a productive infrastructure that is practically in ruins,” he emphasizes. He adds that “much more is needed to show willingness for change and to build trust,” especially since the effects are minimal if sanctions are not eased and the oil blockade is not lifted.
Miguel Alejandro Hayes, of the Institute for Research on the Caribbean Basin, believes the reforms are not ambitious enough for Washington’s expectations, as they amount to little more than a “tactical readjustment” given the circumstances.
“The current model and its managers have demonstrated a structural inability to generate the resources needed to overcome the current situation,” he states. In his view, it is necessary to secure “international financing” and implement “a macroeconomic stabilization plan grounded in the restoration of infrastructure,” a key element for enabling large-scale sustainable growth.
The consulting firm Auge, which on its Telegram channel sees the new measure as a “clear” opportunity has been more positive with the uncertainty. “There is a flow of capital and knowledge outside the Island seeking to land in productive projects within the country. For the Cuban private sector, this means potential access to financing and strategic partners,” they state.
However, they also stress that “the challenge is implementation: having the measure published is not the same as having the investment carried out. Viability depends on proper migration classification, obtaining specific licenses, and legal structuring to protect both parties. It is not just about measures but about knowing how to take advantage of them in the context of each business. The theory, which is not yet directly written into regulations, requires well-guided practice.” The consulting firm has not missed the opportunity and offers its experience and analysis to Cubans both inside and outside the Island.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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