Spanish lawyer Hermenegildo Altozano, an expert on foreign investment in the Island, analyzes the future of tourism and the real estate sector, with the exile community playing a leading role.
14ymedio, Madrid, July 27, 2026 – In Cuba, “a hurricane has been unleashed, and what you have to do is take shelter.” That is how Spaniard Hermenegildo Altozano, one of the best-known advisers on foreign investment in the Island, describes the current situation of the tourism sector. The lawyer spoke just over a month ago with hotel consultant Ivar Yuste for a podcast that aired this Monday, and not only has it remained relevant, but following Meliá’s complete withdrawal, it has become even more timely.
During the program, the two experts analyze the past, present, and future of the economic sector with the greatest potential on the Island, which they believe is real estate even more than tourism itself. The role of the exile community and the Helms-Burton Act are also extensively discussed in a conversation that begins with what the interviewee considers the missed opportunity presented by Barack Obama’s administration. “It was a golden opportunity, but instead of opening the door to investment in real estate, which would have created highly widespread or highly granular investment throughout the Cuban economy and produced a broad multiplier effect with everything that later came with the private small and medium-sized enterprises, they practically thought they were the kings of the mambo and that the situation had become a privilege,” Altozano argues.
“They practically thought they were the kings of the mambo and that the situation had become a privilege”
Among the serious mistakes made by the regime, the specialist points to the “excessive concentration of hotel ownership in the hands of a single chain, Gaviota,” which belongs to the military conglomerate Gaesa. Added to that are the extraordinary measures adopted by Donald Trump’s current administration, which have left the Island operating, he says, “on a flatline.” Faced with what he describes as an abnormal rather than structural situation, the lawyer believes it is only logical that Spanish companies have sought to take cover.
Altozano largely dismisses the possibility that the Cuban Government will end up suing hotel chains over their departure, an option that was discussed weeks ago. In his view, each case would have to be analyzed individually, but it seems highly unlikely that the regime would pursue claims after having withheld money owed to many companies. “There are hotel chains that have not been receiving payments that belong to them for a long time. In other words, there have been appropriations of funds by Cuban operators that simply stopped paying,” he explains.
Those “financial corrals” violate existing agreements, making it difficult, he argues, to envision a wave of lawsuits. “On the one hand, you say, ‘No, you can’t leave,’ but at the same time you don’t pay me. So I bring you customers, work with tour operators, fill your hotels, generate foreign currency, and you don’t pay me. Then how can you be surprised that your industry is in free fall?” In addition, the expert criticizes the Cuban Communist Party for repeatedly announcing decisions that ultimately lead nowhere. “It has been very frustrating because you see guidelines being approved, countless economic reforms being announced, and in the end it was just like The Leopard: everything changes so that everything stays the same.”
Spanish hotel chains, he says, have also been harmed by a United States that likewise fails to provide the legal certainty it should. “I cannot rely on a consistent U.S. policy, because an investment takes a long time and requires capital. We could analyze every ailment from the standpoint of international law and all the violations of international law contained in U.S. policy toward Cuba. But the problem is that it’s irrelevant because they couldn’t care less. They literally smoke a cigar over all those considerations.”
Altozano does not hesitate to accuse Washington of also causing harm to the Cuban people through its policies while violating international law. “You cannot use economic coercion to bring about political change. The United Nations Charter tells you that,” he argues. He then cites a dialogue from the play A Man for All Seasons, in which one character says he would cut down every tree to find the devil, and Thomas More replies: “And what tree will you hide behind when the devil turns around and comes after you?” “So what argument will the United States use when it finds itself in a situation where it has to invoke international law?” he asks rhetorically.
“You cannot use economic coercion to bring about political change. The United Nations Charter tells you that”
The European Union (EU) also comes under criticism. The specialist accuses Brussels of looking the other way and failing to use its own legal tools to prevent the forced withdrawal of hotel chains. “Another thing I would like to point out is the absolute cowardice of the European Commission. They have said absolutely nothing,” he contends. The EU has neither invoked the Blocking Statute, which can render U.S. court decisions unenforceable within Europe, nor made use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument approved in 2023. “It seems that everything here is about not upsetting anyone, not doing anything that might cause offense.”
Looking to the future, Altozano offers an extensive analysis of one of his specialties: the Helms-Burton Act and the claims of Cuban exiles. In his view, tourism in Cuba will eventually be dominated by U.S. hotel chains and the capital of those who left the Island. “Over time there will first be a wave, an avalanche, or at least a strong appetite from Cuban Americans, which is perfectly understandable and logical because it is a way of recovering what was lost. As you know, one of the strongest incentives in economics is loss aversion,” he says.
According to Altozano, there are two types of claims. One consists of claims that are fully documented through property titles, making it relatively easy to reach agreements, “both in terms of monetizing those assets through mortgage-backed loans and through their transfer.” The other involves newly built assets on land that was previously publicly owned, where the situation is much more complicated because ownership has changed over time. The specialist believes that a comprehensive compensation agreement similar to those reached with Spain, France, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom could be possible, but above all, he believes many claims could ultimately be left unresolved in exchange for allowing former owners to benefit from the assets.
The specialist believes that a comprehensive compensation agreement similar to those reached with Spain, France, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom could be possible, but above all, he believes many claims could ultimately be left unresolved in exchange for allowing former owners to benefit from the assets
“I actually believe that Cuba’s solution will be real estate. It is what can immediately attract a great deal of investment. That is precisely why I would say this: if you are in Cuba, if you are in Miami, if you are of Cuban descent and have claims to assets, it would be best if those 6,000 claims were left untouched, that nothing happened to them.”
Convinced that those who emigrated more recently will return to the Island, Altozano highlights what he sees as Cubans’ natural entrepreneurial spirit, arguing that many will eventually become real estate developers in Cuba. “From my point of view, it seems quite obvious; it’s only 20 minutes away.” The specialist notes that the Island still has undeniable advantages that make it attractive, beginning with its beaches, which he considers unmatched compared with other Caribbean destinations, and continuing with its culture, history, and well-educated population. Although he acknowledges that recent years have brought severe deterioration in many areas, including public safety, he believes Cuba’s advantages remain beyond question.
As for how that future will come about, the expert admits he has no idea, although he doubts there will be any military intervention given the Island’s proximity to the U.S. coastline. “It seems that Cuba’s future will either be the bear hug or something friendlier.”
Translated by Regina Anavy
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