Category: Elias Amor Bravo

There is no point in incorporating into the regime’s discourse that 2022 has been a hard year, or that the situation has been complex since the second half of 2019. That complexity, which is much more serious than Díaz-Canel says, has to do with tasks of his sole responsibility: reduction of Venezuela’s oil supplies, application of the Ordering Task* and productive paralysis in the face of galloping inflation. Do you want more?

Marrero, however, was optimistic and pointed out in his speech that urban agriculture is the key to the implementation of the Law on Food Sovereignty and Food and Nutrition Security. In his opinion, “it is appropriate that government, political, business and technical actions are designed in all localities, which allow the potential of urban agriculture to be used in the production of food for the population.” It’s not surprising that Díaz Canel publicly has shown reservations towards that Law and what it claims to do. He knows the score.

The previous message should already sound false to the readers of this blog. It is none other than the strategic line of the 2023 economy plan of decentralization to local corporations of state competence. One of them — what a coincidence — is the whole shebang of urban agriculture. Up a creek without a paddle, and seeing that in 35 years little or nothing has been achieved, the communists in 2023 want 1,117,000 of courtyards and plots to increase by the work and grace of the local governments, although it’s necessary to transform “to more efficient forms of economic and productive management, the strengthening and dignity of food production units, and a greater incorporation.” A clear recognition of the low or non-efficiency of urban agriculture.

According to official data, the program is based on the permanent cultivation of 31,234 acres (0.2% of the total farmland), an insignificant amount of the land available for the program (about 4.9 million acres) in the Cuban economy, which in turn conditions any increase in production to the proper application of intensive techniques, combined with principles of agroecology and food sovereignty. Of these, 5,649 acres will be in organics, 7,579 acres in intensive orchards, 1,001 semi-protected acres, 12,894 acres in technified plots and 867 acres of rustic houses.

In addition, other subprograms such as crops and animals have been integrated into the urban agriculture program, so that “in these 35 years, 11 subprograms have been developed, including 5 for animal breeding, and 5 for crops. The most significant impacts are in increasing the amount of areas and in performance.” But the end result has been quite poor, if you take into account the supply that has reached the consumer markets.

The main strengths of urban agriculture, in light of what the authorities have said, are in the production of seeds, which allows the replacement of imports for six crops (kidney beans, lettuce, cucumber, okra, Swiss chard and radish), advances in agroecological culture with intercalation, crop rotation and pest control with biological and natural products. There is also the  development of bioproducts from different natural extracts with a local impact, the elaboration of rustic catch traps, planting of living barriers and the use of lime hydrate, with a favorable impact on agriculture ecosystems.

Some local experiences were also addressed. Approximately 355,800 tons of vegetables have been produced in Havana’s yards in 2022, less than 1% of the total. The task is to produce in such a way that “there can’t be one inch of land that is not planted.”

In Sancti Spíritus, there are eight UEB Urban Farms, where all the representatives of the popular councils and members of the mass organizations work directly and are part of the 290 that exist in the province. There has been an increase of 660 patios compared to last year.

In Santiago de Cuba, family patios reached 92,516, and there were 20 organoponic gardens in 2022, up from 18 in 2021.

In the speech, Marrero finally had words of special recognition fornthe main promoter of the system: Raúl Castro, and distinguished workers and provinces in this period were also mentioned. In conclusion, the Federation of Cuban Women also paid tribute to the best producers in the country. Another announcement, undoubtedly important, was that on the occasion of the 35th anniversary of the program, “and because of its laudable performance during these years, the Central de Trabajadores de Cuba instituted December 27 as Worker’s Day of Urban, Suburban and Family Agriculture.” Almost nothing for something that has not served — far from it — to feed the population.

Translated by Regina Anavy

Related articles:

Organoponics and Food Self-sufficiency in Cuba

Without Water There Won’t be Squash in Urban Gardens

Another ‘Great Achievement’ of the Revolution: Havana Turned Into an Urban Garden

Fidel Castro’s 13 Most Notorious Failures

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So forgetting what happened this year, the economic affairs committee said that the projections of the Ministry of Economy and Planning for 2023 are better, which does not coincide with the latest Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) forecast that lowers growth in 2022, and foresees growth from 2% to 1.8% in 2023. Someone is not right.

Díaz-Canel later stated that the two main problems he identifies in the economy, inflation and a low supply of national currency, can be overcome with creative resistance. But at the same time he announced “a path that brings sacrifices,” which implies for the Cuban people more uncertainty and economic unrest than there is  currently. A disgrace.

And at this point an analysis was carried out that, it’s hard to believe, defied the regime. According to Díaz-Canel, there are some companies that raised prices “against the purchasing power of the population, after moving from an environment of 1×1 to 1×24, while others have increased expenses without raising prices, due to a political commitment.” How curious. Companies that raise prices do so against the population. Those who do not, assume a “commitment” to the people and of course, that, according to Díaz-Canel, “causes losses in their labour force, which has no incentive  for profits.” Is that creative resistance or are we talking about something else?

Does the Cuban communist leader really believe that the Marxist-Leninist economy that he directs puts forward this type of behavior? Are companies that raise prices bad? Are those who don’t do it good? How far does the political commitment to those companies go? And how far does creative endurance go?

Along with this simple business scenario of good and bad, which Cuban communism likes to create, it is pointed out that there is “an excess of liquidity, but concentrated in few hands. For example, there are state-owned companies that, just because of the 1×24 exchange, generated high levels of profit.” Magic or simply manipulation of information? Where is the monetary policy that fulfills its functions? What would Mrs. Wilson do?*

The truth is that the exchange rate of the ordering task** for monetary unification was what caused more than half of the socialist state companies to go into bankruptcy and experience losses, a situation that many have not managed to reverse. Yes. Those who were “good” and did not raise prices ended up entering a crisis. Creative resistance didn’t work here either.

Díaz-Canel also said that even when there are expensive things (minimizing a problem that affects most goods and services) “a group of people can buy them because certain sectors accumulate money asymmetrically.” And he asked: “How do you solve this?” The communist leader’s recipe is clear: “producing more so that there is more supply, but currency is needed for the purchase of inputs.” And then, why are those inputs not produced nationally by Cuban companies? They do not need to be state companies; they can be private or associated with an international investor. Doesn’t Díaz-Canel realize that the solution to the problem is to change what he just defended? Why isn’t creative resistance used here?

He recognized in his analysis that “the people most affected are in the budgeted sector and among retirees and pensioners,” and this is true, because inflation hits the most vulnerable sectors the hardest, for which government spending cannot be stretched further. There is no margin.

Unfortunately, the estimated figures for the closure of the 2022 plan and the one planned for 2023, as well as the progress of the provisions approved to address the crisis, remained for the next plenary session of the Assembly, so we will have to be attentive to them. They won’t be good.

In the agri-food commission there was also an opportunity to assess the concept of creative resistance. The result of the verification of the Acopio System of Companies*** was evaluated. The report explained that “among the main causes of losses, the non-compliance with the hiring that supports the economy plan, inefficiencies in marketing, high financial expenses with interest, the inefficient management of collections and payments, and the delay in the application of the labour availability process stand out. The eternal situation of lack of control and disorganization contrasts with the iron ideological intervention of the economy. Creative resistance still doesn’t work.

The balance of the agricultural sector is regrettable. Cuba has to prepare for a bad, a very bad, year. The report highlighted the breach of contracts by suppliers, with losses of more than 38,000 tons of agricultural products, representing about 32 million pesos. No one cited the real reasons for these breaches, forced by the demotivation caused by trade debt, prices and lack of inputs, among other things. To this is added the chain of defaults, which at certification amounted to 604 million pesos in accounts receivable and payable.

At this point, the Minister of Agriculture, the main person responsible for this chaos, blamed Acopio “for not having taken enough advantage of Decree-Law 35, which aims to create flexibility in the marketing of products,” as if Acopio had nothing to do with the regime. Not content with transferring his management responsibilities to others, the minister “proposed that not only the Acopio System of Companies but also all the institutions are related to the process.”

He also warned that the Law of Promotion and Development of the Livestock Project, which will be fully debated in the coming days, “will not recover the sector on its own but with what the agencies and workers involved in this sector are able to implement.” In all these cases, you will see if creative resistance is of any use.

With regard to the sugar industry, “the importance in this sector of the collectives working organically with bosses who have extensive knowledge would directly benefit the socialist state enterprise.”

The next sugar campaign, defined as a “short harvest” by the president of Azcuba, “will guarantee domestic consumption with fewer sugar mills, with the purpose of gradually rescuing sugar production.” In reality, the state of the sugar sector after the restructuring decided by Fidel Castro at the beginning of the century is so regrettable that its resurrection is very complicated.

The improvement in the economy that the leaders foresee will happen because “the plan focuses on a new business model, in which there is financial planning, not only in sugar production, but also in the circular economy in a prioritized way, as well as in the model of science and innovation.”

Is this the path for Cuban sugar? The regime is simplifying a sector of great possibilities as an engine of the economy, betting on an “objective, flexible and although small harvest, with good practices, concentrating resources on fewer sugar mills to achieve greater efficiency.” From here the path to Insignificance  is short. Creative resistance, in sugar? What for?

Then the service commission analyzed the passenger transport activity, which has presented results very far from those needed in the last three years.

Recognizing that the sector functioned in 2022 below the 2019 levels, the minister of transport pointed out that among the priorities for 2023, “there are measures that act on the objective problems with greater control and rigor; working with the Ministry of Economy and Planning to continue recovering the availability of freely convertible currency and to begin gradually recovering  transport in the country.”

He also asked, together with the Ministry of Finance and Prices, to “advance in the ordering of prices, a task that must be completed before the beginning of 2023, and another action is to work better with human resources and cadres.” All of them are very important and outstanding measures to improve transport, of course, with the necessary creative resistance.

The serious situation of passenger transport and especially merchandise led Marrero to intervene at this point to emphasize that this sector “does not escape the situation of transit in the country, with the characteristic of being cross-sectional to all processes,” and referred to “the difficulties in the acquisition of materials such as fuel, tires and batteries for foreign exchange, and the need to look for alternatives. Creative resistance won’t reach this far.

In the same committee, the Minister of Internal Trade listed what he defined as “main trends that have an impact on the current behavior of the phenomena of corruption and illegalities.”

Among these trends he cited, “the theft of volumes of high-demand resources in wholesale and retail supply chains,” “the lack of demand in the protection and control of material, human and financial resources, by administrative structures,” and the “breaking of marketing standards, in a scenario of diversification of state and non-state economic actors, which generate negative criteria for the population.” Of course, creative resistance worked here as a means of facing the legal and control framework that regulates communist trade. For this it was worth Díaz Canel’s coined concept.

But the communists don’t give up, and at this point, the governor of Havana reported the work that is being carried out in the capital “to face the processes of corruption and illegalities, among them, in gastronomy and commerce, in addition to the collections and payments outside the terms established in the contract,” without wanting to recognize that this alleged corruption and the illegalities have their origin In the regulatory complexity of the model and the limited space that is granted to private activity.

Marrero said that “the confrontation with crime and illegality is a complaint of the population,” which is not entirely true, seeing the protests that occur when a merchant is penalized or a business closed and the merchandise confiscated. He added that “the fact that these demonstrations exist is intolerable,” while “the measures taken go against the harm done, no matter who the actor is  who is charged. It’s a task that requires the participation of all to achieve sustainable control over time and, as a result, that the available resources reach their final destination.” And with that, you can end up eliminating that creative resistance.

Translator’s Notes:

*Mrs. Wilson was married to a British spy. Her life is featured in a BBC series.

**The “Ordering Task” is a collection of measures that include eliminating the Cuban Convertible Peso (CUC), leaving the Cuban peso as the only national currency, raising prices, raising salaries (but not as much as prices), opening stores that take payment only in hard currency which must be in the form of specially issued pre-paid debit cards, and a broad range of other measures targeted to different elements of the Cuban economy. 

  ***Acopio is the Cuban state collection and distribution agency. It is a highly centralized entity intended to collect and distribute all agricultural production.  

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

So, even though this center must “develop sustainable value chains by obtaining new scientific results and bring innovation to the spaces and sectors of society where possible to achieve  sovereignty and food and nutritional security of the population,” the results are still far from being produced. For everything else, it is intended that “the generalization of the experiences of the center take place” assuming that its results, which have not yet taken place, will certainly be produced.

In short, a center and an act tailored to Marrero, to testify to his loyalty to Fidel Castro in times when the Castro regime is at a complex crossroads.

And here come the injustices.

Because in the same edition of Granma, there is other information that shows the enormous inequalities that exist on the Island. From the neatness of the moringa research center and the comfort of the Havana convention center, to the sad reality of the dirt floors that exist in numerous homes, especially in the rural municipalities of the interior of the country. Yes. You heard right. This is one of the challenges of housing policy in Cuba: the program for the eradication of dirt floors in the country. And they’ve been facing the challenge for 63 years and haven’t been able to do anything about it.

Now it turns out that the situation is aggravated, above all by the embargo/blockade, but also by the reduction in the production of various construction materials (including cement, sand aggregate and steel), which “has had notable effects on the program, along with structural changes and financial impacts that limit its application to numerous users.”

The information refers to the province of Granma, one of the most affected with 35,834 homes with dirt floors, a figure that may even be higher. Five years ago, it exceeded 53,000 in the territory. For this year, some 4,439 floors had been planned, of which only 1,462 had been completed by the beginning of December, a budget that does not exceed 50% of the integral financing that was initially foreseen. At this rate, not even in ten years will they solve the challenge.

To this is added the increased cost of the action to eliminate dirt floors in the last two years, exceeding 15,000 pesos; that is, the elimination of a floor in a house of about 538 square feet could be on the order of 25,000 pesos (about 138 dollars at the informal exchange rate).

Also, many of the homes are illegal and not recognized in the province’s housing fund, which limits the constructive actions on the terms indicated.

When the state organization fails, those affected try alternatives, but they are not sufficiently exploited either by the state entities, which can produce them, or by the customers themselves, through their own effort, so everything ends badly. The communists are still determined to direct and monitor the process, but it is getting worse and worse, and they are not able to efficiently take advantage of the natural resources of the municipalities, or provide local development programs that are useful. The limitations in the production of cement by the national industry condition any approach, and therefore, homes continue to have dirt floors. And the cost of repair is about 138 dollars.

What solutions do the communists offer? The furthest from reality, and all of them out of the state budget.

First, extending production to the territories, which goes against reaching the technical scale of production with larger series that would reduce unit costs to a minimum.

Second, producing alternatives to cement, such as trimmed marble or extenders, like LC3 cement and others obtained from lime and zeolite, with the aim of doubling the strength of the cement.

Third, the reality of the problem requires greater efficiency, control and agility in productive objectives. And this from the state is going to be very complicated.

From moringa research to rural homes with dirt floors. Two realities that clash in the communist economic model of the revolution, and that are presented before the eyes of society analysts as two examples of the poor coordination of the regime’s decisions under the state budgets.

Here you should ask yourself, what is the priority for a government that claims to be a defender of the poor? And then see what is really the priority. The hotel rooms? The moringa research center? The inequalities are scandalous.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

The Communists further explain that “to these negative elements are added the damage caused by the accidents at the Saratoga Hotel and the Matanzas Supertanker Base, the devastation of Hurricane Ian in the western provinces and the instability of the National Electricity System.”

And behind this scenario, according to the communists, appears “an aggravated situation of material deficiencies, which affects all the social and economic sectors of the country. Undersupply and inflation persist, with insufficient results in the measures adopted, which maintains a direct impact on the quality of life of the people.” No one, absolutely no one, is able to identify in this scenario of misery and poverty a self-reliance derived from the forced implementation of an economic model, the Marxist-Leninist, which is the origin of the improductivity and general inefficiency of the economy. We don’t even talk about this.

For communists, the only important thing is ideology. And instead of being interested in improving the economic conditions of the population, they warn that “the problems have been used opportunistically by the enemy, who increased the subversive and destabilizing plans, using a fierce media campaign as a spearhead, as part of a true fourth-generation or unconventional war.”

The discredit of the ruling political class in Cuba has to do with a growing detachment from society that considers that there is no measure, plan or initiative that goes well. But the communists claim that the fault lies with an alleged “external enemy” that has always been there, but that now, when the failure of the economic model is more evident, appears with more force. Don’t they realize that there’s something strange here?

The Political Bureau emphasizes above all “the intense work, extraordinary effort of the cadres, militants and, especially, of our people, trying to overcome every obstacle,” which is evidently a declaration of inefficiency, since despite that effort the goals are not achieved. But in addition, a declaration of ineffectiveness is made, because it is recognized that “not always have all the expected results been achieved,” and they announce that the solution is “unity”, the eternal communist unity that contemplates only a part of society, the communist one, as the only one able to solve problems. The rest of the options have no place in the political system. And along with unity, there  is talk of the “reserves,” which is never fully understood.

So in the face of a scenario like the current one, the communists insist that progress must be made in the improvement of the methods and styles of work of the Party; in particular, the exchanges with the population, in the workplaces, in the universities, with the militancy, of the municipalities, of the cadres, in the decisions adopted by the Political Bureau. That is, internal exchanges of communists with communists, which whitewashes any state of public opinion of the population and prevents knowing the reality. It’s like navigating a sea in fog and without a compass. Cuban communists have chosen this path for a long time, and so it goes, at least in terms of economic matters.

Alternatively, they are dedicated to controlling academia, science and research, projects in municipalities and activity in communities and society. They also want to project ideology towards health workers. There is not the slightest interest in producing more and doing it efficiently. This is the least of it.

For communists, it is a priority to “raise the responsibility and attitude of the militants, paying maximum attention to the state of militancy, and the growth and quality of new members.” They received a strong blow in the last municipal elections, with the lowest levels of participation in decades, and they fear what may happen in the general elections of 2023. The truth is that these trends will continue as long as the communists pull out all the stops and have the support of the leadership of the army to remain the only party in Cuba.

What happens is that without alternatives to the economic, social, political and ideological measures to those imposed for 63 years, there is no solution. It was seen with the Ordering Task, and they are on their way to maximum separation from the people. Young Cubans know that, much better than entering a Party that doesn’t know what to do, there is no comparison to leaving the country. That’s the reality.

Communists will remain focused on the fight against what they call crime, corruption, illegalities and social indisciplines, without wanting to recognize that these behaviors take place because of the existing economic model. And that the autonomy of the socialist state enterprise has become a mantra that is difficult to achieve, since no one believes in it anymore.

Only Guilarte de Nacimiento spoke in the communist conclave about inflation, the shortage of basic products and the increase in prices. A pity. The issue arose only at the end of the report and covertly, despite the fact that in October, year-on-year inflation was already almost 40%, the highest in the world. The loss of purchasing power of wages and pensions suffered by Cubans doesn’t allow comparison worldwide, and this is an inheritance of the communists, who demanded the implementation of the Ordering Task in their previous congress, despite all the warnings. The political bureau’s report did not take into account that the main threat to Cuban communists is what they have caused themselves: inflation. We will continue to talk about it.

*Translator’s note: The “Ordering Task” [Tarea ordenamiento] is a collection of measures that include eliminating the Cuban Convertible Peso (CUC), leaving the Cuban peso as the only national currency, raising prices, raising salaries (but not as much as prices), opening stores that take payment only in hard currency which must be in the form of specially issued pre-paid debit cards, and a broad range of other measures targeted to different elements of the Cuban economy. 

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

It should be remembered that this data had been included months earlier in a ECLAC forecast report, where the Cuban economy had one of the lowest growths in Latin America during 2022, and was headed for a scenario even more negative  in 2023, with a lower increase of 1.8%. The regime, given the evidence of its data that it rarely discloses to the state media, was forced to recognize that the growth of the economy was reduced by half, with the impact that this has on most activities and productive sectors.

What indicators does the communist regime use to accept its defeat in terms of economic growth planning? A few days ago, ONEI published the statistic, “Sale of goods and services at retail January to September 2022” that includes information regarding the preliminary behavior of some of the indicators associated with sales of goods and services to the population, in addition to total sales and domestic production to the domestic market in CUP. It could be interpreted as an indicator of spending, of the behavior of consumer demand, which in most economies, is a powerful indicator of their behavior.

The information is included in the following Table:

The data reveal that in the first nine months of 2022, compared to the same period of the previous year, total sales of goods and services reached a nominal or current growth of 125% to 163 billion pesos. Other spending concepts increased even more. Gastronomy 47.2% and services 37.5%. If we look at the breakdown between the state and non-state sectors, significant differences are observed. The highest growth took place in the gastronomy of the non-state sector, 307.8%.

These data could be indicating the behavior of a buoyant, powerful economy, with a sharp increase in family consumption spending, which is obviously not the case, if the reports and day-to-day news of Cubans are taken into account. Is it that statistics do not adequately reflect reality? What is the problem that causes economic data to indicate one thing and real experience another?

The culprit of these differences is the year-on-year inflation rate until September, 37.24%, and that gastronomy (hotels and restaurants) reached 44.3%. Inflation, as if it were a tax on the poorest, erodes the nominal incomes of workers and pensioners who are paid in Cuban pesos and reduces the growth of the nominal magnitudes of column 3 of the Table, once they deflate.

This correction of the current data by the evolution of prices, to obtain the real or constant data, is made because they more adequately reflect the behavior of the spending and demand indicators. When this task is performed, the data in column 4 of the Table arise and present notable differences with respect to the nominal values.

To begin with, total sales are in the red, -8.9%, indicating a notable contraction in spending demand that explains the remarkable weakness of the Cuban economy throughout the year, which breaks with any possible consumerist vision, forcing the regime to forget about the planned figure of 4% of GDP.

Sales in gastronomy must be deflated by their corresponding year-on-year inflation rate, and with it, the real variable grows by a modest 2%, which is explained by a stagnation in state gastronomy, 0%, while the non-state one increases by 182.6%. But its volume, 846 million pesos, is insignificant and barely represents 3% of the state one, 27,197.2 million pesos, Once again, economic totalitarianism pays a high price. If the regime allowed all gastronomy to be non-state, other data could have been obtained.

Finally, sales of services, corrected by average inflation, increased by only 0.2%, which in the case of non-states registered a decrease of -20.9% in the period under analysis.

These data, in particular real sales of goods and services, set off alarms and have to be incorporated into the forecast models of the economy in 2022. If they don’t improve in the last quarter of the year, which seems unlikely since inflation tends to increase, everything points to an intense reduction in the growth of the economy from real spending and demand, which is expected to be less than the current 2% and could even point to a certain recessive or stagnation period. The most intense real drop in spending occurred in retail trade in Cuban pesos, -18.6% for the economy as a whole, -18.4% in the state and up to -28.7% in the non-state.

Throughout 2022, Cubans have lost almost 20% of purchasing power in their retail stores when they pay in Cuban pesos. Poverty is a real fact.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

Díaz-Canel said that he has presented himself in China with an invitation from the only party, the Chinese communist, whose leader, Xi Jinping, the same character who publicly purged his predecessor during the 20th congress and who questioned the Prime Minister of Canada for disclosing content to the press in the G-20. President Xi is someone who doesn’t mess around. Again, the Cuban communist delegation arrived at the Beijing airport at an untimely hour and was received by a very low-level government official, Xie Feng, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Facing the caravan’s media, and for domestic consumption, Díaz Canel said that “it is a pleasure to be in the People’s Republic of China. For us it is an honor that we have been invited, as the first country in Latin America, to visit China, after the successful celebration of the 20th Congress,” insisting once again on the invitation, because the cost of the trip, for a budget like the Cuban one, begins to be scandalous. An independent audit of expenses would show that, apart from the invitation, there is a lot of expenditure in this entourage that is little or not at all justified for the Cuban people, whom they claim to serve, and who are hungry.

It was announced that during the visit there will be official talks with Xi Jinping, Li Zhanshu, President of the National People’s Assembly and Prime Minister Li Keqiang, as well as the signing of more than ten agreements between the parties.

The good relations between China and Cuba are part of the global strategy of the Asian giant to occupy positions of economic control in Latin America. China, in its objective of becoming the world’s leading power, has developed a global extractive model of income and resources in the countries where it is established, and through this mechanism it increases its economic power, grants aid for cooperation, permeates financial systems and occupies commercial positions in sectors of interest.

Its interest in politics is relative. Countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have witnessed that extractive invasion of China that has benefitted significantly from globalization. The strategy has worked well for the Asian giant. Producing low-cost goods worldwide by international companies installed in its territory, China has obtained substantial trade benefits that have increased its economic power. The rest is known.

And meanwhile, Díaz-Canel is talking about China as if it were an “ancient civilisation whose cultural and historical values have endured over time and constitute a heritage not only of China, but of all humanity”; or he’s recalling Che Gievara’s visit in 1960 to establish relations. And from all this he concludes that “this profile is the one that has captivated the Island despite the geographic distance.” This argument that can look pretty good in a second-class brochure, but it has very little to do with global geopolitics. Getting off the plane in Beijing, and wearing a black beret, Díaz-Canel, according to Granma, sent “the warmest congratulations to my counterpart Xi Jinping,” who at that time was sleeping soundly.

Another mistake by Díaz-Canel is to think that Cuba and China are today references for the construction of socialism. All you have to do is to take a walk around Beijing, or any of the great capitals that are filling up with skyscrapers, to verify the enormous distance between Chinese socialism and the communist destruction that exists in Cuba. Wanting to compare the two countries is an insult to intelligence, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Xi, with the character he has, commented on it.

Díaz-Canel has placed cooperation in the biotechnology sector as the main objective of the visit, but there must be more. In fact, China ranks second in the world as a commercial partner of the Island, a short distance from Venezuela, which is receding. Cuba’s exports to China reached 417 million dollars in 2021 (ONEI yearbook), 21% of the total, just behind Canada, which reached 613 million dollars. On the other hand, Cuba’s imports from China reached 972 million dollars, 11.5% of the total. In this case, China was behind Venezuela, with 1.245 billion dollars. This position of second trading partner of the Island is accompanied by a very unbalanced trade deficit of minus 555 million dollars that requires financing. On the other hand, in 2021 only 799 tourists from China came to Cuba, after reaching 49,000 in 2018.

The Cuban communist regime’s commitment to China carries risks. Basically, because the Chinese don’t give anything for free. They always demand something in return, such as the part of the sugar harvest that corresponds to them and which Cuba cannot manage to deliver, due to the low levels of harvests in recent years. Or in the case of minerals, or tobacco, the Chinese have travelled to Cuba to look for resources to extract, but the landscape they find is well known: devastation and widespread poverty. In addition, the Chinese are not interested in tourism or services, which is what Díaz-Canel offers. The Chinese don’t give a fig about coincidences on the political level with the Cuban regime; they want something else.

The visit to the Asian giant has just begun. The entourage is already tired of so many thousands of miles. The bet is high, but the results are uncertain. It doesn’t seem that China will become the substitute for Venezuela. It will ask for something in return.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

The Chinese money is a double-edged sword, because it requires discipline, efficiency and effectiveness from the Cuban communist state — attributes that it lacks — in order to undertake projects of a certain magnitude with the guarantees provided. So the money will be there, in front of the eyes of Díaz-Canel and company, but its execution will be problematic if things do not change, and by a lot.

It’s like the Algerian power plant. Who is going to build it, with what technology and at what cost of time and money? The Chinese have put their cards on the table, and although they have granted money — this is undeniable — they have sent a message to the Cuban communists that the waste, adventure and the little campaigns to organise trouble in other countries are over. China is not Venezuela, nor does it want to be.

In that sense, one has the impression that the “legal instruments” that Granma talks about are designed, precisely, to adjust the accounts to Cuban partners, and that China plans to give money as the projects progress.

The question is, is the Cuban communist state ready to undertake all those investments and make it through? There are doubts.

In the Cuban economy there is everything. From planned and never-executed investments to investments with an advanced degree of execution, but which are pending some administrative work. And others that, when executed over very long periods, end up being allocated to different purposes than those for which they were planned. The Chinese know this situation and don’t believe in that model. Its economy advances along a different path in which the expected profitability of the projects is the determinant of investment, while the political criteria have gone to a better life.

So in the end, the only thing that will benefit the Havana regime is the donation of the 100 million dollars that Minister Gil talks about. For the moment he is the only one who has mentioned that figure, and the debt negotiations with China are reaching out-of-control dimensions, as this country becomes the second buyer and supplier of Cuba’s foreign trade.

The Chinese, who were sympathetic to the economic situation of the Island, want to collect or at least secure the payment, and there doesn’t seem to be good news there either. And for this they demand adequate plans for the ordering and restructuring of the debt, because otherwise, the credits associated with China’s investment projects in Cuba will be paralysed.

It’s the same as Díaz-Canel’s idea of attracting Chinese companies to invest directly in Cuba and that it not be all state aid. No matter how much political convergence exists between the two countries, these Chinese companies respond to management boards oriented by the perspective of profit, and they will not be willing to invest in ruinous businesses in Cuba. There are no data to justify it, but the low Chinese direct investment in Cuba since the adoption of Law 118 is amazing.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

At the Algerian international airport, Díaz-Canel, accompanied by his wife Lis Cuesta, was received by a second-level court, Aiman Benabderrahmane, the prime minister, and the ministers of Health and Culture, Abdelhak Saihi and Soraya Mouloudji. The president was not there.

Then, in an airport enclosure, there was a meeting between the delegation of Cuban communists and their Algerian hosts where they remembered Fidel Castro, who visited the African country on more than one occasion and where he maintained very good political relations with its leaders. With this fanfare, which came out of the blue, because they were stories of more than six decades ago when the world was different from the current one, Díaz-Canel intoned the main issue: bilateral ties, consolidating “good relations.” Translated into understandable language: money, money and money.

And, basically, because you can’t be wasting time, Díaz-Canel’s main objective seems to be to solve the serious crisis of the Cuban electroenergy sector and put an end to the blackouts that alter the conditions of production and life in the country.

The Cuban communist leader’s Twitter has been the source of information for his followers, and so in a message, he said that “after two years under the impact of COVID-19, we crossed the Atlantic again,” adding that the journey “responds to Cuba’s political and economic priorities, as well as to efforts to alleviate the effects of a post-pandemic crisis that overwhelms everyone, and, in our case, is exacerbated by the effects of the U.S. blockade.”

Before proceeding, it’s advisable to review the available data. At their first stop in Algeria, Díaz-Canel and Lis Cuesta, accompanied by an entourage that included Bruno Rodríguez, Alejandro Gil, Rodrigo Malmierca (who was also absent from FIHAV), José Angel Portal and the new guy, Vicente de la O Levy, minister of energy and mines, had no choice but to recognize that Cuba’s foreign trade with the African country is unbalanced and complicated.

Cuba’s exports amounted to $904 million while imports amounted to a figure of over $277 billion (2021, last available year). The balance sheet is very favorable to Algeria, and the foreign trade coverage rate is 0.32. Cuba’s annual deficit with the African country is more than $227 billion, so payment, for a bankrupt regime, can be problematic. Algeria occupies a prominent position on the list of creditors and is getting nervous. On the other hand, what can Cuba offer to this country? More doctors? Artists? Advisors of various branches? Technology maybe? It’s difficult and complicated. Algeria is on another wavelength, nor does it seem that it’s going to send tourists to the Island either.

It seems that the trip involves negotiating the payment of the accumulated debt, which can be much higher than billions of  dollars, observing the figures of recent years. The state press threw out balls and described the work agenda on Algerian soil with activities such as “the exchange of Díaz-Canel with his host counterpart,” (who did not receive him at the airport), “a meeting with collaborators of the Cuban medical brigade and members of the state mission of the Island” and a little tourism, with visits “to places of cultural and historical importance of this nation.”

It’s too early to assess the consequences of this trip. There is the impression that no more can be expected than a certain continuity and that the Algerians will continue to wait to collect what is due them. A few commitments may even be signed to muddle through, in the style of the aviary deal of the former Soviet CAME*. The relationship between the two countries doesn’t admit alternative scenarios. And get ready for the best in this journey, which has just begun.

*Translator’s note: CAME, the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, was an economic organization from 1941-1991 under the leadership of the Soviet Union that comprised the Eastern Bloc countries and other socialist states.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

The official note reports that in the Cojímar People’s Council two citizens were detected and arrested for the illegal sale of medicines; and in Guanabo the Police were led to an individual for illegal sale of shrimp. Finally, in an operation carried out at the Víbora Park People’s Council, in the municipality of Arroyo Naranjo, 116 cartons of eggs, 43 packs of detergent, 34 bath soaps, 29 packs of wet wipes and 23 packs of sanitary napkins were dealt with in a home-warehouse.

The official press wants to draw attention to all these “illegalities” without granting to those sanctioned the right to a defense. They are simply fined, which in many cases, amounts to a month’s income.

The logical thing is that many of these producers stop providing their services and, as a result, consumers will find stalls closed and less merchandise to buy. It’s the same story of the last 63 years, and in addition, the communist regime warns of it even in the constitution: in Cuba private enrichment is not allowed.

The informal market can arise to satisfy the social needs not met by the state, but at any time, the authorities can persecute, harass and eliminate it with a stroke of a pen and that’s it. There is no country in the world where it’s so risky to engage in a private economic activity. Yes, the communist regime says it is fighting against “illegalities” that harm the national economy. But this is not entirely true.

For example, add up the amount of those “illegalities” that appear in this article, and you will see that it doesn’t exceed 200,000 pesos [ed note: $8,000 US as of today’s exchange rate]. That may not even be the total figure. We are talking about a ridiculous amount by Western standards, which may not even cover the salaries of police, inspectors and snitches, but in Cuba, the sanctioned will have a very bad time. There is no doubt about it. And this is what is intended with this type of repressive action.

In addition, everything happens because, according to the communist economic model imposed on the country, certain activities are qualified as “illegal” by the government. Of course, these activities aren’t illegal elsewhere, but in Cuba the parameters are different, and it depends on how it looks.

A good example of the parameter of “illegalities” in this case, committed by the regime that punishes Havana sellers, is how, for example, the hotel exploitation system of Cuba works.

It turns out that the state press these days has reported that Blue Diamond Resorts, exclusively, will begin operations in Cayo Largo del Sur. The Canadian hotel company Blue Diamond Resorts together with its Cuban counterpart in the business, the Gran Caribe Group, whose shareholding is known for its links with the regime, announce that four of 11 renovated properties in Cayo Largo del Sur will open their doors on November 4. The hotels that welcome the renovated destination are Memories Cayo Largo, Starfish Cayo Largo, The Villas Linda Mar and Marina.

When was the bidding and awarding of this business carried out? Was there any kind of oversight or was it awarded by decree. We find ourselves suddenly tongue-tied at witnessing a first “illegality”: in recent months the regime had been planning to transfer the hotels, which supposedly belong to the people, as productive assets to this Canadian hotel group.

In addition, the award has been made according to the global interests of citizens around the world, since Cubans will find the prices beyond their reach when these resorts open. Second “illegality.” Cubans cannot enjoy tourism in their own country.

So with these two sonorous “illegalities,” easy to appeal in independent courts, the first doesn’t invite other international companies to participate; and the second, the objective difficulty that those who are paid their salaries and pensions in Cuban pesos would have to be able to stay in these resorts. However the communist regime pursues the illegalities of poverty, of the eternal “resolving a problem,” of unmet needs, specifically for the Havana merchants, accusing them of illegalities and destroying their small businesses.

On the other hand, the same communist regime, with high-caliber “illegalities,” has made Blue Diamond Resorts Cuba the fastest growing hotel management company in the country, leaving behind other companies that already operated with the favor of the regime.

In reality, when we talk about illegalities in Cuba, we access a whole universe of injustices that have their most evident example in the crony capitalism and illicit pacts that exist in the tourism system. There is no need to think too hard. Someone will have taken a cut from the Blue Diamond deal. From time to time. So yes, there are illegalities… and multimillionaires.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

What seems obvious is that these people occupied in the tasks of counterintelligence don’t produce food or manufacture products; their work is only reflected in being an instrument of the internal blockade, which is to report information to eliminate from the root any social initiative contrary to the objectives of the so-called “revolution.”

Raúl Castro’s letter confirmed the personal interest of the country’s ruling circle in the members of this body to continue to preserve, “with the professionalism and honesty that characterizes them, the security of the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the work of the Revolution.” Let’s say that if that supposed professionalism and honesty were dedicated to more productive and necessary things for the well-being of ordinary Cubans, this argument could be justified, but giving security to the revolution is now getting old, and the effort dedicated to this task is so enormous, that much of the country’s energy is lost in this activity, which counterintelligence performs masterfully.

And apparently not only Raúl Castro wants this organization to continue working and blocking the Cuban people. The speech of some leader of the new generations of officers recognized that, even though much work has been done, the challenges ahead are even greater. And he added, “for revolutionaries there is no rest; we have to be united and work to continue consolidating the gains achieved”: a message that reinforces that unproductive character of counterintelligence, based more on the confidence that the direction of the revolution places in it than on the use of the work of those thousands of people in pursuit of the social good of all Cubans.

The 60 years of existence of this organization have depended on alleged attack plans of the internal and external enemy. Beliefs that, based on being repeated over and over again, end up becoming dogma; in reality, those attacks have never occurred. What usually happens is that the regime, to block the people, identifies a legitimate social protest, such as 11J, as an attack on national sovereignty, and imprisons thousands of people, with long sentences for exercising a widely recognized right in all countries of the world. That is, internally blockading the population.

Are there privileges to be part of this organization? In a general sense, possibly, but it doesn’t seem that employees who engage in these activities have, except in very few cases, better living conditions than average. They have lived with a non-existent creed for 60 years and curiously prepare for an uncertain future, in which, once the nation chooses the path to freedom and democracy, the internal blockade exercised by counterintelligence will disappear forever.

It will disappear as in the famous film, “The Lives of Others,” in which the protagonist, a spy with East German counterintelligence, is faced with a new reality alien to the one he had lived in the period of dictatorship. Most likely, democracy in Cuba will make the entire history of counterintelligence disappear, the history of its “founders, heroes and martyrs,” because unlike what Granma says, we will not inherit anything from them, except a lot of suffering, repression, destroyed lives and internal blockade, and this, of course, at incomprehensible costs for any state.

And as it doesn’t appear that this will happen, the communist regime that governs the destinies of Cubans, the same one that created counterintelligence 60 years ago, will not assume the historical responsibility of transforming the organization so that it really serves the interests of the people and ceases to be an internal blockade. They won’t. Not even with that critical reflection or analysis of what Granma says they do. Many of these actions help to understand the internal blockade that Cuban communists deny, although it exists and is especially serious, above all at this time when the people begin to wake up and realize what is being lost.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

to comply. Then, with the passage of time, the dispute acquired other nuances until it reached the present time, 63 years later.

From this perspective, if the international community makes claims for the dispute to disappear, it’s because it ignores the background, or simply, it  has taken the side of the Cuban communists. The dispute is not a “crime against a neighboring nation, noble, solidarity, respectful, that has never attacked or will attack the US.” On the contrary, it is a defense of the interests of its citizens, who were aggrieved by that neighboring nation, and a firm commitment to freedom and democracy.

At the same time, Cuban communists stretch the rope of the blockade to the limit.

For example, they usually say that “the blockade causes Cuban children who suffer from the lack of a drug, the implantation of an organ, or the use of a reagent, for the ridiculous reason of having only 10% of American components.” Or when they say that “Cuba can’t buy food or has to look for it in distant markets, or simply do without because the banks where we must pay don’t accept Cuban financial transactions.”

False. It allows, precisely, the purchase of food of all kinds and medicines and medical equipment in the United States. The data support it. Purchases of these products exceed 200 million dollars a year. The only condition is that Cuba pay in cash. The truth is that with Cuba’s data on debt defaults, that requirement not only seems reasonable, but should be extended to all countries that trade with the Island. The United States does well to protect its exporters.

And of course, there are lies and more lies to distort reality. It’s not true that because of the blockade “the use of the US currency has had to be suspended because no necessary resource is allowed to be acquired with it, whatever it may be.” The dollar is used in Cuba today more than ever, and there is a stable demand that keeps the price high in informal markets, reflecting the deep imbalances of the economy.

Cubans demand dollars and will continue to do so, above the existing supply, because they are a safe haven, a trustworthy currency, and they increase purchasing power and facilitate access to all kinds of goods and services. The necessary traceability of those dollars is something very different, and here once again, if the regime doesn’t get Cuban dollars accepted in foreign banks, it is because the origin of them is unknown, and international payment standards must be complied with, which, for example, Fidel Castro despised. Taking Cuba off the list of terrorist countries can, in this case, even be reckless.

If relations between the United States and Cuba continue to be assessed through the framework of the dispute, there is only one party responsible: the Cuban communist regime. In the text it is very clear what has to be done and how to leave behind this situation that, on the other hand, has always existed and only becomes a threat in those moments when Cuba ceases to have some external partner willing to subsidize its economic and political adventures. In that sense, between 1959 and 1993 there was no talk of any embargo. Reason? The generous Soviet subsidies. Later, with the economic emergencies of the Special Period, the argument of the embargo arose, but when Chávez’s oil arrived, the tension calmed down again.  Until now, when Castroism is in the terminal phase and doesn’t know what to do.

It’s even possible that the dispute is in its final hours. However, there are those who think that it’s now more justified than ever. At the United Nations, Cuba wins every year in votes on this issue. David’s false fight against Goliath always has supporters. What there is no doubt about is that the sacrifice of the United States for giving continuity to a policy that began as a defense of the interests of its citizens and ended up being a wise strategy for the democratic, economic and social transformation of Cuba, will be rewarded when Cuba joins the set of democratic countries of the world. And that will be soon. And then, the dispute will be over.

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Editor’s note: This article was originally published on the Cubaeconomy blog and is reproduced with the author’s permission.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

In 2016, Brazil represented 2.8% of exports and 5.2% of Cuban imports. Five years later, the respective percentages were 0.11% and 2.8%, respectively, bringing along a trade deficit and increasingly reduced trade. There is little business for a country like Brazil, with more than 200 million inhabitants. Exports fell by 96%, imports by 48%.

Regarding tourism, out of the 35,000 Brazilians who arrived on the Island in 2016, there were 416 in 2021, in the midst of the pandemic. Unlike other tourism markets in Cuba, Brazil didn’t register the highest value in 2019, and in 2018, reaching 41,000 tourists, it was barely 0.87% of the total. Compared to the country’s population potential, tourism from Brazil to Cuba is insignificant.

And more data could be offered, all of them equally eloquent. The powerful Brazilian economy has little, scarce interest in what Cuba can offer, and also, Cuba’s purchasing potential is insignificant to sustain a stable framework of relations with Brazil. So between the two countries, the flows of capital and business leave much to be desired.

Can it happen that Lula changes the character of these tendencies? Of course, that’s what Díaz-Canel wants, but is Lula in a position to mortgage the future of Brazil to someone who doesn’t pay or who does it late and badly? What benefit can Lula obtain from the Cuban communist regime located at the antipodes of this national reconciliation project of which Lula speaks? What does Cuba have to offer Lula, besides doctors, spies, coaches, etc.?

Some advisor to Díaz-Canel should have listened to Lula’s victory speech in a little more detail, especially when he said that his victory is “for all women and men who love democracy and want freedom,” and then added clearly that “it’s not a victory for me or the PT (Workers’ Party).” Díaz-Canel’s opportunistic message of congratulations to Lula was along the opposite line, when he said, “but they could not prevent you from winning with the people’s vote. The Workers’ Party of Brazil returns; social justice will return.” This is just what Lula doesn’t want to hear, in search of that unity he talked about. With this type of leftist and radical approach, Cuba and Brazil will not go very far. Time will tell.

It’s evident that there is a clear difference between the speeches of the two leaders, and the impression is that Brazil will go it alone and not show a particular interest to the Cuban communist. It’s enough to listen to another of Lula’s speeches to realize his intention to govern for all. “This is a victory for all women and men who love democracy, who want freedom, who want culture, education, fraternity and equality.” In short, it’s a clear concern about “how to begin defining and repairing this country.” The messages of “decadent capitalism, the victory of socialism, the recovery of the ideas of Marx, Engels and the Communist Manifesto,” and other stupidities enunciated by Díaz-Canel at the meeting in Havana, were not even heard in Lula’s speech. He has learned his lesson. We’ll see how everything ends.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.