ECLAC and Cuba Siglo XXI also describe a shocking panorama and the regime’s rejection of any change
14ymedio, Madrid, November 23, 2025 — As if they refused to take the antidote that would prevent death when bitten by a poisonous insect, the Cuban government continues its forward flight blindly with a reissued “program to correct distortions and boost the economy.” The plan, presented on Thursday in the official press and on the Round Table TV program, came out the same week that the accounts of all foreign companies were frozen and three devastating documents were published about the situation of the island: an article in the prestigious weekly The Economist, a new report of Cuba Siglo XXI and the latest data from the Economic Commission for America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
These three go in the same direction, summarized by The Economist from its headline: Cuba is heading for disaster, unless its regime changes drastically. For the British environment, which usually does not devote much space to the island, given the poor economic, energy, health and demographic conditions of the country, it is fully summarized in its long text: “A convulsion is coming.”
“It is difficult to understand how ordinary Cubans survive today,” the weekly begins, because “basic necessities cost much more than the official average monthly salary of 6,506 pesos (equivalent to 14.46 dollars at the informal exchange rate, which is what is used).”
The Economist’s portrayal of everyday sufferings is recognizable to any citizen of the island: “Under a suffocating heat, electricity is cut off in most places for at least four hours a day, and in some areas almost all the time. Fans and air conditioners are usually turned off. Water is also missing in many places, so drinking, cooking and washing, not to mention showering or even using the toilet, are often impossible.”
“Under a suffocating heat, electricity is cut off in most places for at least four hours a day, and in some areas almost all the time”
The data provided by the specialized media are known, such as that 89% of families live in extreme poverty, that public transport has “practically” disappeared, that “millions of Cubans” depend on remittances or that a quarter of the population has left the island. But put in black and white, they are impressive for an international audience.
Particularly eloquent are two graphs on migration included in the article by the independent demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos: next to the figures of Cubans who left their country are those of Cubans who entered the United States, which are, year by year, inversely proportional, like an inverted mirror.
The main focus of the text is economic data, including the collapse in tourism, high inflation, devaluation of the peso and the fact that output is at its lowest in more than a century, resulting in an 11% contraction since 2019, a number recognized by the Government itself.
The latest ECLAC report, made public last Wednesday by the Cuban economist resident in Spain, Pedro Monreal, points out that the island appears as “one of the three countries with no growth in the value of projected exports of goods (worse than Haiti but better than Venezuela). For this expert, “the reduction in the estimated value of exports of goods from Cuba in 2025 would be explained by the poor sugar yield and the fall in the price of nickel.”
“Because of Cuba’s high import dependence, the contraction in imports must have a negative impact on economic growth”
Monreal also highlights the results of the first half of 2025, which indicate a simultaneous reduction in exports and imports, the negative balance of trade in goods (exports-imports) and the fact that the government does not report its data on trade in services. And he states: “Due to the high import dependence of Cuba, the contraction in imports must have had a negative impact on economic growth.”
“The only ray of hope is the rise of private enterprise,” states The Economist, which then warns of the constraints faced by small entrepreneurs. “The Government seems unable to decide whether to simply tolerate private activity or encourage it,” notes the article. The owners of private firms, it continues, “are constantly frustrated by the government’s lack of clarity in interpreting the law and its persistent mistrust of free enterprise.”
They quote an interviewed businesswoman, Marta Deus, who runs a tax consultant and distribution company, Mandao, (with 200,000 users): “Everything is done in circles. There is no clarity. Nobody knows the rules. We expect a change. But it seems that the government lives in another world.”
The fundamental reason for the regime’s reluctance is the fear that the system will collapse if the private sector expands. “They see private enterprise as a nest of worms that will infiltrate, destabilize the country and end up driving out the Party,” says another interviewee. And a third: “When you see the first McDonald’s in the Plaza Vieja, you will know that the Revolution is finished.”
The text of The Economist, which regrets that “no Mikhail Gorbachev” is still visible within the regime, as there was in the Soviet Union, and that the opposition is “weak and fragmented,” concludes with the words of a taxi driver: “This system is so bad that it is irreparable. The only thing you can do is get rid of it and start from scratch.”
The military conglomerate is “the real power in Cuba and has led the country to the worst financial crisis of its history”
It is the same conclusion reached, in other words and by other means, by Emilio Morales in his most recent report for the organization Cuba Siglo 21, published last Wednesday. “The only way to abort this financial crisis that has practically paralyzed the country and plunged the population into extreme poverty is to eliminate the system of governance that created it,” he writes.
For Morales, the fault lies with the Grupo de Administración Empresarial (Gaesa). The military conglomerate is “the real power in Cuba and has led the country to the worst financial crisis of its history.”
The expert recalls various data such as the shortage of dollars, the general fall in national production and the increase in external debt, explaining them around an idea: “The government headed by Miguel Díaz-Canel does not in practice have control over the country’s finances. The Central Bank of Cuba, which is the institution that should govern the management of the nation’s finances, is completely subordinate and subject to the interests of Gaesa.”
A proof of this -which Morales does not mention- is the trial carried out against the former Minister of Economy and right hand of Díaz-Canel, Alejandro Gil Fernández, accused of spying for the CIA and other serious crimes of corruption.
In any case, and given the new measures it is publicizing these days, the regime will continue on the wrong track. Although the official claims that “the Government Program is made up of 10 general objectives, 106 specific objectives, 342 actions and 264 indicators and targets, all closely interrelated,” it does not really offer anything new.
First, they attribute the economic disaster to “the effects of permanent aggressions resulting from the economic blockade and internal inadequacies.” The tone of words expressed by officials continues with controls on private businesses: The “distortion in relations between economic actors today impedes the fundamental role of the State enterprise,” declared Jorge Luis Broche Lorenzo, head of the Economic and Productive Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party (PCC). Another example is the campaign against El Toque, accused of being in the service of the US to devalue the national currency.
As for the energy crisis, far from proposing an innovative approach, they return to the “classics” of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), with the words of Broche Lorenzo: “Let us remember that Lenin was clear on this: communism in those conditions is translated as the power of the soviets plus the electrification of the country. If our electrical system is not reactivated to the level required by economic management, it will take work to move forward in the process of socialist construction.”
Translated by Regina Anavy
____________
COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.