The island’s current number of residents stands at 8.62 million, a loss of almost 1.8 million in one year

EFE (via 14ymedio), Havana, July 9, 2024 — Cuba’s population fell 18% between 2022 and 2023, due mainly due to migration, and now stands 8.62 million people according to an independent, soon-to-be released demographic study to which EFE had access.
The figure is based on the number of Cubans arriving in the United States between October 2021 and April 2024, a total of 738,680 people according to information released by U.S. officials. This includes those entering the country through visas, family reunification (the so-called “humanitarian parole” program) and irregular means.
The figure is based on the number of Cubans arriving in the United States between October 2021 and April 2024, a total of 738,680 people
This figure was used to extrapolate the total number of Cuban migrants, taking into account the percentage of Cubans traveling to the United States relative to the total number of people who leave the country for other destinations. Based on historical precedents, the author estimates this to be 33% for 2022 and 2023.
That would amount to 1.79 million people in one year, an unprecedented number in recent Cuban history.
By comparison, previous large waves of emigration following the Cuban revolution — these include the initial wave (the so-called freedom flights), the Mariel boat lift and the rafter crisis — produced a total of 620,000 people leaving the island according to various estimates.
When mortality rates are taken into account — in 2022 as in 2023, there were many more deaths on the island than births — the author comes up with a population figure of 8.62 million people.
Albizu-Campos calculates a different number of inhabitants than the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), whose reports indicated 11.11 million were living in the country as of December 31, 2021.
The author believes this number to be “fictitious” based on his own calculations, which relied on the 2013 and 2023 electoral rolls as a point of reference. In his opinion, the figure should be 10.48 million.
“Hundreds of thousands of people, often with the financial support of family members overseas, notably in the United States, have accepted the challenge. They have joined the uncontrollable flow of migrants trying to escape poverty, political intolerance or both,” says Albizu-Campos.
“Hundreds of thousands of people. . . have joined the uncontrollable flow of migrants trying to escape poverty, political intolerance or both
Official figures do little to shed light on the recent migratory phenomenon because the government does not currrently consider someone to be an emigrant until he or she has been out of the country for at least twenty-four months.
The country’s ongoing economic crisis has also caused the 2022 population census to be postponed The pandemic and the fuel crisis are other reasons the government has cited for successively delaying the date.
The deputy director of ONEI, Juan Carlos Alfonso, claimed in a recent interview with EFE that his department is committed to carried out the census in 2025. He acknowledged that they have emigration estimates but that ONEI has not published them.
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