The dollar went on a wild run in June, climbing from 600 to 700 pesos before falling back to 660 this Friday.
14ymedio, Madrid, June 26, 2026 / The informal foreign currency market is going through turbulent times. Just three days ago, the dollar hit 700 Cuban pesos [CUP], crossing a new psychological threshold and triggering an immediate rise in prices of goods denominated in national currency. The celebrations among currency traders were short-lived: within hours, a sharp drop was recorded, followed by several more, bringing the exchange rate down to 660 CUP this Friday.
It is not the first time the currency market has acted like a yo-yo in response to the extreme volatility of supply and demand in an economy devastated by crisis and producing almost nothing. The energy crisis and the absence of any prospect of improvement have contributed to accelerating the fall of the national currency while simultaneously generating sharp recovery movements driven by cautious behavior on the part of currency buyers.
“A few days ago, when it was rising fast, I had a hard time making exchanges, because the MSMEs [Micro, Small, Medium Enterprises] had put buying on hold,” a Havana-based seller told 14ymedio. “Along with the dollar’s rise in recent days, food and other products also went up. Now I’m seeing they say it’s come down – I hope essential goods come down a bit too,” he added, trying to find a silver lining in his trade.
“The bad thing about this is that now the dollar falls and prices stay where they were when it was at 700.”
Most people are skeptical. “The bad thing about this is that now the dollar falls and prices stay where they were when it was at 700,” one social media user commented. Speculation is keeping the conversation very much alive. Some argue that the speed of the drop is due to the 176 economic reform measures announced by the Government. Others mock the very idea that the regime’s proposals could have any effect. “Nobody invests their money without guarantees. There can be 15,000 measures for change, but if you don’t change the law where it needs to be changed nobody comes. Nobody is going to put their money somewhere where the judge is also a party to the case,” another user replied.
Just 24 days ago, the dollar reached what was then seen as an unthinkable record: 600 CUP. Looking back even further — though not that far — it is easy to confirm the relentless depreciation of the national currency. On May 2, one dollar was exchanging for 535 CUP.
US economist Steve Hanke, who frequently updates informal inflation rates and currency depreciation figures for various countries, placed the Cuban peso three days ago as the third most devalued currency in the world at present, having lost 45% of its value over the past year. Although the ranking is volatile — as recently as June 16, the CUP was in fourth place — a persistent presence in the top five has been maintained for some time. On that same day, the expert noted that inflation reached an annualized rate of 84.5%, the third highest rate of price increases in the world. “Socialism and Uncle Sam’s sanctions have proved to be a lethal cocktail,” the expert stated.
“Socialism and Uncle Sam’s sanctions have proved to be a lethal cocktail.”
The official market, meanwhile, continues to operate in its parallel world, today buying the dollar at 585 — a price at which few, if any, are willing to part with a currency that has become far too precious.
In December 2025, the Government launched a floating rate in an attempt to compete with the informal market rate, which had established itself through sheer economic reality among the population. After years of open war with El Toque for publishing an exchange rate far higher than the State’s, the official buying and selling price was set at 410 pesos to the dollar — in addition to the other existing rates of 24 pesos, for state enterprises, and 120, for entities capable of generating foreign currency. Beyond being an attempt to recapture the lost currency market, the regime was trying to contain inflation that continues to climb, albeit more slowly than in 2023 and 2024 — not because the economy has improved, but due to widespread poverty and the scarcity of goods at affordable prices.
At the time the initial rate was approved, the authorities noted that it was not going to please anyone, and so it proved — the US dollar was trading on the informal market for around 440 pesos, a far closer relationship than the current one. The regime’s efforts to contain monetary instability have proved futile, as economists had already warned. To achieve that, they noted, five factors difficult to bring about on the Island would need to be in place, starting with a better macroeconomic environment that today is much further away than it was just a year and a half ago.
Translated by GH.
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