The regime knows that if it brutally represses a social explosion, it will be handing the powerful neighbor the excuse to intervene on a silver platter.

14ymedio, Miami, Ariel Hidalgo, February 28, 2026 – According to what we have seen in Venezuela since the capture of Maduro until now, almost two months later, and what followed afterward: the rise of Delcy Rodríguez to the Presidency with Washington’s approval, a slow-motion release of political prisoners without guarantees they will not be jailed again, as well as the persistence of dictatorial structures, like a form of madurismo without Maduro, and the control of that country’s oil by President Trump (not for nothing did he publish his photograph as president of Venezuela), it seems to us like an image of what could happen in Cuba, also taking into account what has been reaching us so far about a supposed cabinet made up of figures from the regime.
I do not want to be a spoilsport and I am sure that Cuba’s freedom is closer than ever, but people should not blindly trust the promises of representatives of a foreign power. Is that the only alternative? The uprising of 11 July 2021 [’11J’] was not organized by anyone, neither by dissidents, nor by the CIA, nor by Cubans in Miami, and yet it shook the foundations of power. Did it fail?
We can lament the repression and the imprisonments with draconian sentences, but the massive demonstrations in dozens of cities constituted a political victory, because they were the beginning of a process that leads to another revolution, a word many people do not like but whose meaning is very simple: radical change. Ask yourselves when the last radical changes happened in Cuba. It has been a long time. Nothing changes; they only make reforms that lead nowhere in order to maintain a system that everyone already knows—even they themselves—is a failure. However, they do nothing to change it and improve the living conditions of the people. continue reading
The 11 July uprising was not organized by anyone, neither by dissidents, nor by the CIA, nor by Cubans in Miami, and yet it shook the foundations of power.
Why? Because they fear the people, because those demonstrations not only shook the foundations of the regime but also the conscience of many people who until then could not conceive that something like that could happen, and above all because they know what a pre-revolutionary process is. In the 1950s that process lasted five and a half years from the attack on Moncada until the dictator fled. Although such processes do not last the same amount of time, they generally differ by a few months more or a few months less. And this one has already been going on for a little less than five years.
What will its outcome be? That will depend on the decisions the governmental cabinet makes before that probable social explosion. They know that if that explosion occurs and they repress it brutally, they will be handing the powerful neighbor the excuse for intervention on a silver platter. Then it would be smarter to avoid it.
How? By detaining dissidents or preventing them from leaving their homes? We have already said that it is not dissidents who provoke it, but that they are spontaneous, provoked rather by the leadership itself with its mistaken policies. They cannot station guards outside the homes of millions of people. By cutting the internet? They cannot keep it suspended indefinitely. And since no one can foresee when that explosion will occur, the first spark will be inevitable, wherever it may be, and there will be no time to cut the internet and prevent the news from spreading throughout the country in just seconds.
Therefore, the only solution to avoid it is to change policy in such an evident way that everyone becomes convinced that this time it is not about formal changes meant to change nothing, but about going to the essence of the problems: freeing all political prisoners and engaging in dialogue, not with the external enemy but with the dissidents, who have already become spokespersons for the people. If they cannot stop the new revolution that threatens them from below, join it from above.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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