- The digital outlet Axios cites a State Department source: with the heat, irritation will grow and people will take to the streets
- “The president does not want troops on the ground for more than 48 hours”
14ymedio, Madrid, May 28, 2026 — The leaks from the U.S. State Department to Axios that so irritate Havana continue unabated. The latest installment, published this Thursday, again speaks of an open-ended scenario in which all options are being considered. Apparently, President Donald Trump trusts that the regime will slowly stew in its own juices, a fairly literal metaphor considering negotiators are talking about a summer in which heat itself will become another suffocating factor that could push the population to explode.
“We do not want to end the regime just yet. There is a method to this, in stages,” one of the sources said. The Administration expects a collapse in the coming months through a strategy the official describes as “accelerationist,” although that definition weakens when he explains that the pressure will be applied “in slow motion.” “Trump wants to exhaust every tool at his disposal. But at this moment, he does not have as many as before,” the source added, maintaining that the president is in no hurry and is focused on Iran, an issue that becomes more complicated the closer it seems to a resolution.
“We have a broad range of resources, especially regarding sanctions and their enforcement. And more measures are coming,” the source said, without clarifying which additional sectors might be affected.
“We have a broad range of resources, especially regarding sanctions and their enforcement. And more measures are coming”
One of the most enigmatic statements the sources gave Axios was the suggestion that there could indeed be someone within the regime capable of steering a transition, although the operation has not yet been approved. “The problem is not that there is no Delcy in Cuba. There could be people with a similar profile. But Trump has not yet given the green light to formally get involved,” one official maintained.
According to these sources, there are two other issues that distinguish Cuba from Venezuela. Washington believes that an operation to capture Raúl Castro — criminally charged in the U.S. a week ago for the shootdown of the Brothers to the Rescue planes — similar to the one carried out against Nicolás Maduro would be useless because Raúl Castro already carried out a transition 30 years ago “toward a less authoritarian regime,” and nothing would change. From the official’s remarks, it is understood that the U.S. problem with Cuba is the current system’s economic “incompetence,” without mentioning political aspects.
The other issue is that the embargo is subject to legislative control, meaning the presidency has more limited room to maneuver. “This prevents Trump from normalizing relations with a new government through executive order, as he did in Venezuela, where sanctions were imposed by the U.S. executive branch,” the sources reflected, adding that the interests of Cuban-American representatives play a role here. “They hold hardline positions on Cuba that reflect the conservative exile community in South Florida.”
Removing Venezuelan support has been key to the U.S. strategy, they added. The rest has continued through additional sanctions, and summer, they hope, will do its part. “It’s going to be hot. People won’t have electricity. Food will spoil without refrigeration. People will be more irritated. They may take to the streets. And then what will happen? I do not see the president doing nothing if there is repression,” one source said.
But another of those consulted disagrees. “The president does not want troops on the ground for more than 48 hours. It is a brewing quagmire. This could get complicated.”
Be that as it may, all plans are on the table, as Politico insisted this Wednesday in an article stating that “strategically positioned assets are laying the groundwork for military action, from capturing Havana’s leadership, similar to what was done with Nicolás Maduro, to a series of precision strikes.” “Everything is on the table, but there is no planned or imminent invasion,” they confirmed to Axios. “When the president gives the order, we will be ready for anything.”
“We will talk with them, work on it; we want something good for the Cuban people and, hopefully, there will be a good outcome for them. There has to be”
Amid this situation, the carrot-and-stick strategy remains alive. The U.S. secretary said this Wednesday that he trusts negotiations will succeed. “We will talk with them, work on it; we want something good for the Cuban people and, hopefully, there will be a good outcome for them. There has to be,” Rubio said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House chaired by Trump.
That strategy can also be seen in the offer of $100 million in humanitarian aid that Rubio offered Havana last week and which it accepted. Like the aid sent after Hurricane Melissa, it will be channeled through the Catholic Church. “If we had wanted to accelerate the collapse, we would not have sent any aid,” a senior government official told Axios. This is, he said, a “campaign to show people that they can have a better life if the regime gets out of their way.”
“The political situation is complex on both sides [of the Florida Straits],” another official concluded. “But we have time. They do not.”
Translated by Regina Anavy
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