Inflation figures, 1.5% in April and 14.7% year-on-year, reflect the disappearance of drugs, which are now acquired almost entirely on the black market at high prices.
The shortage of essential medicines has reached such levels that it is almost necessary to “invent” the cost of products to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Cuba. In its April price report, published this Thursday by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), an imputation rate of 91.5% had to be applied in the Health category, a record high since this report began being compiled.
Imputation is a tool used in statistics when the technicians compiling the data cannot find a particular product on the market—whether due to scarcity or unavailability. In this situation, the surveyors make an estimate to ensure the continuity of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This practice is standardized and necessary to maintain the data chain, but it also reveals where there are gaps, whether they are significant, whether they persist over time, and their evolution, among other indicators.
The table for this month shows, as usual, that most sectors remain reasonably stable – with imputations between 0% and 2% – with the exception of the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector, where a 5.25% adjustment was necessary. High imputations in this segment are common in the ONEI CPI reports due to shortages of many food products. For example, a very high rate of 25% was recorded in November 2024.
The shortage was already evident as far back as December 2021, when a 50% charge had to be applied.
However, nothing compares to the catastrophe suffered by the Health division, a segment where prices don’t usually rise. The real reason isn’t so much whether they do or not, but their mere absence. The shortage was already evident as far back as December 2021, when a 50% imputation had to be applied. Looking at the trend, almost randomly, one can see how the situation has worsened dramatically. In March 2022, the rate rose to 56.6%, by August 2023 it was already at 66%, and in September 2024 it reached 85%. Just two months later (November 2024) it reached an unprecedented peak of 90.9%, but it stabilized in 2025.
It isn’t that the situation is not much better, as imputations hovered around 85% throughout last year, but that this March they reached 88.7%, and the absolute record was set in April. This figure indicates that almost all products must be “estimated” because there’s no way to measure them, revealing that Cubans are acquiring virtually all their medicines and medical supplies on the black market. The situation has been entrenched for more than five years, but the shortage has reached unsustainable levels that, according to experts, only appear in contexts of hyperinflation and extreme scarcity.
Moreover, inflation levels are rising again after the restraint shown for many months last year. This month, prices rose 1.5% overall, although some sectors stand out, such as transportation at 2.7%. And this doesn’t even take into account the brutal price hikes seen on the street, where gasoline can be found for 5,000 pesos per liter. “Just yesterday, my sister had to go to a family celebration here, about 20 blocks away. We had to make three trips, and the driver charged us 12,000 pesos for each one,” a resident of Luyanó told this newspaper.
The food sector is also rising again and is 21% more expensive than in April 2025, as are restaurants and hotels.
In April, intercity buses and taxis saw price increases of between 10% and 13%, and while the rise in urban transport was more moderate, taxis, at 8.4%, experienced the smallest price hike. This sector, which has been suffering the consequences of fuel shortages for years, is 17% more expensive since January and 21% more expensive compared to prices a year ago, with the resulting consequences for a population for whom transportation is essential.
The food sector is also rising again, and is 21% more expensive than in April 2025, as are restaurants and hotels—which includes takeaway food—which have increased by 24% year-on-year. Although most of the highlighted food items showed price decreases this month, others, such as milk, taro, and mutton, increased by almost 5% in some cases.
Overall, inflation has risen 7.18% so far this year and 14.7% year-on-year, according to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). For months now, prices from private vendors have accounted for 83% of the database due to shortages in state-run markets. Meanwhile, American economist Steve Hanke published his own estimate this Friday, which projects inflation at 29% by 2025, placing Cuba 40th in his ranking of the world’s poorest countries. Just a few weeks ago, he placed annual inflation at 44%, while the Cuban peso has depreciated 30% against the dollar, the fifth worst performance for any currency in the world.
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