Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island increase oil volatility and threaten more global inflation.
EFE (via 14ymedio), Madrid, March 14, 2026 – The war being waged by the United States and Israel against Iran since February 28 has driven the price of oil up by 37% in just two weeks, with a barrel around 100 dollars and a 64% increase so far this year.
Since the outbreak of the war, the price of Brent crude, the benchmark in Europe, has fluctuated continuously depending on the evolution of tensions in the Middle East and various statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about the duration of the conflict.
Last Monday, Brent climbed 30% and reached 119.50 dollars, which caused stock markets to plunge. However, that same day Trump stated that the war with Iran was practically over and crude began to fall, reaching 90 dollars.
The volatility that day allowed Brent to record, first, the largest increase in its history, of 26.7 dollars, and later also the largest intraday drop.
On Tuesday, Brent continued to retreat and plunged 11.28%, to 87.80 dollars, still influenced by Trump’s claim that the war would be brief.
The volatility allowed Brent to record, first, the largest increase in its history, of 26.7 dollars, and later also the largest intraday drop
These lows did not last long because a day later, on Wednesday, oil rose again by more than 5% and the barrel approached 93 dollars, despite the fact that the International Energy Agency had announced the release of 400 million barrels, the largest reserve intervention in history.
In the early hours of Thursday, the barrel reached 101.59 dollars, a rise that moderated throughout the morning but gained strength again after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed, pushing crude back to 101 dollars.
Alongside Brent, West Texas crude, the benchmark in the United States, has also recorded strong fluctuations and is currently trading around 97 dollars.
Middle Eastern crude exports, which normally depend on the Strait of Hormuz, are approximately 16 million barrels per day.
A prolonged conflict in Iran with extended disruptions in Hormuz would push Brent to 120 dollars
Analysts at XTB have analyzed several possible scenarios for Brent, estimating a 50% chance that it will move around 100–110 dollars in a scenario of containment in Iran, while a ceasefire or political agreement, with a 25% probability, could bring crude down to 80 dollars.
The most unlikely scenario, a prolonged conflict in Iran with the risk of longer disruptions in Hormuz, would place Brent above 120 dollars per barrel.
The near-total slowdown of maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to test the resilience of the global economy, with the risk of slower growth accompanied by higher inflation.
UBP’s Director of Information Systems and its Head of Advisory and Asset Allocation, Michael Lok and Nicolás Laroche, respectively, have highlighted that Europe and Asia are more affected by the conflict in Iran because they are net energy importers, in contrast to the United States, which is a net exporter and the largest oil producer in the world.
The Iranian Army said it will destroy “all oil, economic and energy infrastructure related to the United States” if there is aggression against its own energy facilities
The Iranian Army said this Saturday that it will destroy “all oil, economic and energy infrastructure related to the United States” in the Middle East if there is aggression against its own energy facilities, following the U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, the heart of the Islamic Republic’s oil industry.
“If there is an attack on the oil, economic and energy infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as we have already warned, all oil, economic and energy infrastructure belonging to oil companies in the region that have U.S. shares or cooperate with the United States will be destroyed and turned into a pile of ashes,” said a spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.
The statement, in response to “the declarations of the aggressive and terrorist president of the United States,” came after U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that his armed forces carried out one of the “most powerful” bombings in the history of the Middle East against “military targets” on Kharg Island, where 90% of the oil the country exports to the world is stored.
Trump said he had chosen “not to destroy the island’s oil infrastructure,” a decision he may reconsider if the blockade in the Persian Gulf continues.
“If Iran, or anyone else, does anything that interferes with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” he warned on his Truth Social account.
Kharg, located 25 kilometers off the Iranian coast, is described as a vital point for Iran because it concentrates the country’s main oil terminal and is the largest crude loading point for oil tankers.
According to local media, the island is also known for having large oil storage tanks used to distribute crude to the international market.
Translated by Regina Anavy
______________________
COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.