The ‘Miami Herald’ poll also indicates that exiles oppose the deportation of law-abiding migrants.
14ymedio, Madrid, April 17, 2026 / Support for a US military intervention in Cuba is even higher today among Cubans who arrived in the US after 2000 (88%) than among those who went into exile between the 1960s and 1970s (80%). This is one of the findings of a survey conducted by the Miami Herald in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties in Florida, the results of which were published this Thursday. This figure, specifically, suggests that the hardening of positions is not only linked to the memory of the initial exile, but also to more recent experiences in Cuba.
Some 79% of those surveyed – 800 people, both Cubans and Americans with dual nationality or ancestry on the Island – are in favor of “some kind of military intervention,” almost the same percentage that rejects any negotiation that does not involve a regime change.
Specifically, 78% oppose agreements that would allow the current political system to continue in exchange for economic reforms, while 77% express dissatisfaction with any improvement in living conditions that is not accompanied by a transition to democracy. Similarly, 68% reject talks that could strengthen the Cuban government, even if these talks contribute to alleviating the country’s crisis.
Some 38% support an “intervention that combines regime change with addressing the humanitarian crisis” on the island
Of those who support intervention, 36% favor direct action to overthrow the regime, while 38% back an intervention that combines regime change with addressing the humanitarian crisis on the island. Only a minority rejects any kind of armed action.
Such a level of support has surprised even the analysts interviewed by the Miami Herald. Fernand Amandi, president of Bendixen & Amandi International and one of those responsible for the study, compares the current moment to the context of the Bay of Pigs invasion—whose 65th anniversary is this Friday—when Cuban exiles attempted to overthrow Fidel Castro’s government with US support.
According to Amandi, the community’s message is clear: there is a “green light” for the Donald Trump Administration to take stronger, even military, measures against the Cuban regime.
Regarding the distribution of responsibility, 73% of those surveyed attribute the island’s economic and humanitarian situation to the regime, not to US sanctions. This perception reinforces support for pressure tactics, such as limiting energy supplies, which also enjoys the backing of two-thirds of those surveyed.
In terms of ties with Cuba, however, the survey indicates a gradual weakening. Seventy-six percent of respondents have not traveled to the island in recent years, and 59 percent do not send remittances or aid to family members. Factors such as the economic crisis, immigration restrictions, and family reunification in the United States appear to have reduced these ties, the Herald estimates .
Even among Democratic voters there is considerable rejection of negotiations without political changes.
Likewise, interest in returning to or investing in Cuba is limited. Some 76% rule out returning to live on the island even in a scenario of democratic reforms, and only 2% would invest while the current government remains in power.
The survey also introduces a relevant nuance regarding immigration. Despite its hardline stance against the Cuban government and its support for the U.S. government, the community largely supports legal immigration: 81% support allowing Cubans to enter the U.S.; 76% want to resume suspended immigration procedures; and 68% oppose deporting those who comply with the law. These figures suggest a clear distinction between policy toward the Cuban regime and the treatment of migrants.
At the political level, the poll shows strong support for the Trump administration and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s handling of Cuba. The majority of respondents identified as Republican (57%), compared to 17% Democrats and 22% independents. However, even among Democratic voters, there is considerable opposition to negotiations without political changes, although this group is distinguished by its majority opposition to military intervention.
This, precisely, is one of the points highlighted by Cuban congressman Carlos Miguel Pérez Reyes, who has lashed out on social media against the Herald poll. “The poll itself reports a very politically biased composition,” he criticized, adding that the 800 people involved in the study comprise “a very, very specific geographic and political universe.” According to the Communist Party legislator, “that poll doesn’t represent Cubans residing in the United States, much less the American people.”
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