Cuba, The Never-Ending Crisis

Three determining factors shape the scenario for 2026: institutional deterioration, external isolation, and political stagnation

The epidemiological crisis exposed a healthcare system trapped between material deterioration and public distrust. / EFE/ Yander Zamora

14ymedio bigger14ymedio, Havana, January 1, 2026 –In 2025, Cuba reached December exhausted, with the feeling of having lived through a year too long for so little breath. The epidemiological crisis laid bare a healthcare system trapped between material deterioration and public distrust. Hospitals collapsed in the midst of the arbovirus epidemic, and the lack of medicines revealed that the country can no longer feign self-sufficiency or moral authority in the management of public health. Where there was once propaganda of medical prowess, today there are only wards without doctors and patients who must find supplies on their own.

Nor could tourism —once an economic lifeline—provide any relief. The sustained drop in visitors dragged down jobs, reduced income, and left hotel rooms empty.

On the political front, continuity has been the regime’s main line of defense, in a context marked by the exile of activists and, simultaneously, the deportation by the US of migrants linked to the government. Repression remained high, especially against the informal currency market and the digital news site El Toque, which has become a scapegoat for an economy increasingly dependent on the dollar.

The exodus of athletes continued, reflecting a country that is losing talent at the same rate as the decline of sports.

The exodus of athletes continued, reflecting a country losing talent at the same rate as the decline of sports, and, most dramatically, baseball. The blackouts, with several successive collapses of the national power grid, were more than just long hours without electricity each day: they became the everyday metaphor for a political project that doesn’t illuminate, only spreads darkness around it. Not even the new photovoltaic parks managed to alleviate the electricity crisis.

On the international stage, Havana faced increasing isolation and palpable nervousness in the face of Washington’s encirclement of Nicolás Maduro ‘s regime, one of its last remaining external pillars of support. Signals emanating from Caracas foreshadow turbulence and potential outcomes that could leave the Cuban leadership without one of its most strategic allies.

Hurricane Melissa added a natural disaster to a year already marked by the erosion of institutions, unable to assist those affected, and the exponential growth of poverty, fueled by rampant inflation that primarily impacts food prices. Protests over the lack of electricity and water became an increasingly direct expression of popular discontent. Meanwhile, the military conglomerate Gaesa consolidated its economic and financial control by opening dollar stores selling food and basic goods.

Without a reformist roadmap, the population views the future like someone staring at the sea on a dark night: they cannot make out the shore, but they know it exists.

By 2026, the outlook appears even bleaker. Without a reformist roadmap, the population views the future like someone staring at the sea on a dark night: they can’t make out the shore, but they know it exists.

However, Cuban society has reached this point with something it previously lacked: a widespread awareness of its own strength, tested in the streets by the banging of pots and pans and cries of “Freedom!” This is not naive optimism, but rather an understanding that even in the longest nights there are cracks through which light can seep. And these cracks, opened by ordinary people, can mark the beginning of a change that no longer depends solely on those in power.

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