Category: Translator: Regina Anavy

administration—from which it was removed by the next president, Joe Biden—and “relisted” at the beginning of Trump’s second term. This refers to relations with the leadership of the National Liberation Army (ELN) during talks with the Colombian government in which Havana served as mediator, though without mentioning it explicitly. “Any past interaction that involved individuals later designated as terrorists occurred solely in limited humanitarian contexts, linked to internationally recognized peace processes, at the request of their respective governments, and in a fully transparent manner,” the statement says.

Guerrilla leaders have moved between Venezuela and Cuba, the country that hosted the talks between 2018 and 2019, the year they were frozen. Colombia then urged the United States to include Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism for refusing to extradite members of the guerrilla group who were on its territory. The talks had stalled after a guerrilla attack on the Police Academy in Bogotá in January 2019, in which 23 people were killed and nearly a hundred injured.

None of this is mentioned in the statement, which maintains a consistently defensive tone: “Cuba does not host foreign military or intelligence bases and rejects the characterization of being a threat to the security of the United States. Nor has it supported any hostile activity against that country, nor will it allow its territory to be used against another nation.”

At the same time, the text highlights a “willingness to maintain respectful and reciprocal dialogue” with its northern neighbor, something Trump said on Saturday was already taking place and reaffirmed on Sunday. Thus, the Foreign Ministry states that Cuba “is willing to reactivate and expand bilateral cooperation with the United States to address shared transnational threats, without ever renouncing the defense of its sovereignty and independence.”

The tone softens even further in the final paragraphs, which underscore a proposal to “renew technical cooperation with the United States in areas that include the fight against terrorism, the prevention of money laundering, the fight against drug trafficking, cybersecurity, human trafficking, and financial crimes,” and assert that both nations “benefit from constructive engagement, cooperation in accordance with the law, and peaceful coexistence.”

According to independent journalist Carlos Cabrera, Cuba and the United States are negotiating in Mexico

Last Friday, the regime’s attitude was very different. In remarks widely disseminated by Cubadebate and later turned into an official statement, Díaz-Canel responded to U.S. pressure by saying: “The president of the Empire is behaving like a Hitler, with a criminal policy of contempt that aims to take over the world.” The official text revived the old Castro-era slogan, stating that “the decision is one: homeland or death.”

According to independent journalist Carlos Cabrera, Cuba and the United States are negotiating in Mexico. Citing a source “close to the government of Claudia Sheinbaum,” he said that the first talks concluded early Saturday morning, with “a preliminary agreement to begin a transition to democracy, pending final approval by the White House.”

According to the same source, General Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro, is participating in the talks and “conveyed to a senior CIA official the willingness of the Castro authorities to begin the democratization of Cuba, in exchange for ‘an amnesty’ for his father and other senior Castro officials.”

Similarly, Cabrera claims that a senior official at the Ministry of Justice revealed that the agency is working on “a process for the release of political prisoners, starting Wednesday, February 4,” which he described as a “gesture of goodwill, unilateral and sovereign” by the regime. The same was stated by a “senior officer” of the Ministry of the Interior, who announced the “imminent release, this week” of political prisoners, though he “refused to go into details.”

In a report published last week, The Wall Street Journal revealed that the Trump administration was seeking a figure within the Cuban regime with whom it could negotiate a democratic transition, similar to what it is doing in Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, with Delcy Rodríguez.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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in civilian clothes.

“The illegitimate Cuban regime must immediately cease its repressive acts of sending individuals to interfere with the diplomatic work of the Chargé d’Affaires”

Sánchez and her husband were on their way to a meeting at Hammer’s residence. They had been invited to the start of the celebrations for the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence. At the same time, other political activists and opposition figures such as Boris González, Berta Soler, Ángel Moya, Manuel Cuesta Morúa, Marthadela Tamayo, Camila Acosta, Ángel Santiesteban, and Dagoberto Valdés were forced to remain inside their homes, without any judicial order.

Between Havana and Washington there has been an increase in hostile rhetoric following the removal of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from their residence in Caracas, where they were sleeping surrounded by a guard of Cuban military personnel, 32 of whom were killed in the capture operation. Authorities on the island have spent four consecutive Saturdays calling for military exercises in anticipation of a possible similar action by the United States.

Such hostility, however, contrasts with the tour the head of the U.S. diplomatic mission has been making through central Cuba, where he is generally warmly received by residents. On the U.S. Embassy’s social media, Hammer said with a smile that “they yelled a few insults” at him and that he believes they came from people who “belong to ‘a certain party’ ” and who “do not represent the Cuban people.”

In the statement, Hammer films himself with a mobile phone from a rooftop and says he is in the city of Trinidad, traveling around the island, “getting to know more everyday Cubans,” with whom he has “been talking about their aspirations for a better Cuba.”

The U.S. Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs warned this Sunday on X that “the illegitimate Cuban regime must immediately cease its repressive acts of sending individuals to interfere with the diplomatic work of Chargé d’Affaires Hammer and members of the Embassy team. Our diplomats will continue meeting with the Cuban people, despite the regime’s failed tactics of intimidation.”

Translated by Regina Anavy

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borrowed coats or multiple layers of clothing just to be able to sleep. In the poorest neighborhoods, dampness settles into mattresses and furniture, worsening respiratory problems and rheumatism that rarely find relief in an understocked health care system.

Among the risks accompanying these weather conditions are flooded basements, contamination of potable water cisterns, and uncovered sewer openings: hidden traps that have already proved deadly in previous floods. The day is also more difficult for those who depend on informal work or daily transportation to survive. Rain and flooded streets reduce the circulation of buses and shared taxis (almendrones), raise transportation costs, and force many to walk long distances in downpours, with the resulting loss of time and income.

For many, however, the greatest fear is not during the hours of rain or wind, but in the days that follow, when the sun returns and the accumulated moisture begins to seep out of aging walls that can no longer withstand decades of neglect and lack of maintenance. In Havana, the subsequent heat acts as a silent trigger that softens walls, opens cracks, and accelerates the deterioration of structures that have been at the limit for years. Partial or total collapses usually occur then, far from the drama of the storm, but with more serious and lasting consequences.

This permanent risk turns each cold front into a deferred threat for thousands of families living in shored-up buildings, tenements, and subdivided houses. Many sleep in fear of not hearing in time the creak of a wall or the collapse of a balcony. In a city where structural collapse has become normalized, the greatest threat does not come from outside, but from within the walls themselves.

Translated by Regina Anavy
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For thousands of households, obtaining a 10-kilogram cylinder has become an obstacle course

The tanker then headed to Cienfuegos and entered the port with the same draft with which it had departed. It carried no LPG. The voyage, followed with anticipation for days by specialists and citizens alike, ended up being yet another demonstration that Cuba’s energy system operates day to day, without a safety net.

The Cienfuegos terminal concentrates key infrastructure for LPG storage and redistribution for the western part of the country. From there, provinces that have gone months without regular service are supplied. The lack of gas not only deprives families of an essential household fuel, but also forces them to improvise with firewood, charcoal, or intermittent electricity for cooking, fueling ongoing social and public health deterioration.

In 2025, the authorities themselves acknowledged near-total suspensions of gas sales due to depleted inventories. Each unloading allowed only a few days of sales before the small cylinders, the balitas, disappeared again. For thousands of households, obtaining a 10-kilogram cylinder has become an obstacle course with no guarantee of success.

In January 2026, a gas cylinder was resold for between 10,000 and 30,000 pesos

That is why every movement of the Emilia is tracked down to the minute. The ship has spent long periods anchored or inactive, behavior that some experts attribute less to technical failures than to financial constraints. Cuba purchases LPG through spot operations, without stable contracts, and depends on regional intermediaries willing to assume risks. The shortage of foreign currency, a history of nonpayment, and now the tightening of the sanctions make it increasingly difficult to close deals, even in the short term.

From Cienfuegos, when product is available, LPG is redistributed to provinces that are months behind. Then the lines reappear, appointment slots are exhausted within hours, and the informal market drives prices up. In January 2026, a gas cylinder was resold for between 10,000 and 30,000 pesos, several times a state worker’s monthly salary. The official price exists only for those who manage to reach the service window.

The Emilia episode also fits into a broader context of energy contraction. As early as 2025, fuel imports to Cuba fell significantly, affecting both electricity generation and household consumption. With less fuel for distributed generation plants, blackouts intensify and gas becomes a critical substitute. Shortages of one increase demand for the other, closing a vicious circle.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

“We have to know the scope, because we also don’t want to put our country at risk in terms of tariffs,” said Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum

However, Sheinbaum said she wants to know the scope of the announced measure so as not to “put Mexico at risk,” and therefore instructed the foreign minister, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, to establish immediate communication with the U.S. State Department.

The recent threat by U.S. President Donald Trump comes amid negotiations over the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump has threatened to pull his country out and negotiate bilateral agreements, as he has already done with some nations.

“We have to know the scope, because we also don’t want to put our country at risk in terms of tariffs,” the president said at her usual morning press conference, this time from Tijuana, Baja California.

Sheinbaum insisted that Mexico “will always seek the diplomatic route” and called, “first, for the self-determination of peoples and, second, to avoid a humanitarian crisis for the Cuban people.”

For the moment, there does not appear to be a plan within the Cuban government, whose only available mechanism for now is rhetoric. “Having to resort to so much abuse against Cuba is the greatest recognition by the U.S. executioners of their own defeat. Long live Cuba and down with the criminal siege of the U.S. We will resist, we will defend the peace we conquered through struggle. We will live and we will prevail!” wrote the deputy head of the Cuban mission in Mexico, Johana Tablada, in a tone similar to her minister’s tweets.

Going even further was the president of the state news agency Prensa Latina, Jorge Legañoa, who was the very first voice of officialdom to speak out on Cuban television, in a special news broadcast. “What is being sought? What is being sought is a genocide of the Cuban people, and if it materializes through tariffs, the effect would be to paralyze electricity generation, transportation, industrial production, agricultural production, the availability of health services, the water supply… in short, all spheres of life, asphyxiation by the U.S. government.”

Legañoa denied one by one all the accusations contained in the executive order signed by Donald Trump this Thursday. “Cuba is not a threat to national security and never has been,” he maintained. He then rejected claims that there are Russian or Chinese facilities on the Island, that there is cooperation with terrorism, and that political opponents are persecuted and tortured. He also accused the U.S. of harboring terrorists, citing the late Luis Posada Carriles as an example.

The journalist described the new measure as “an act of aggression” and called on the international community to choose whether or not to join that blockade policy. “We ask ourselves whether the world will be governed by the use of force to impose the will of one state over another and compel a third to join in,” he reflected.

“We ask ourselves whether the world will be governed by the use of force to impose the will of one state over another and compel a third to join in”

Legañoa stressed that no country can survive without fossil energy and accused the U.S., after seven decades of failing to do so, of trying to bring down a “legitimate system of full sovereignty, social justice, and the promotion of peace and solidarity with the rest of the world. Let us not be deceived by another blow from the empire,” he concluded.

Legañoa’s appeal to other countries has found its first response in China, which this Friday condemned the measure, considering that it violates Cuba’s sovereignty and deprives its population of the right to development. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a press conference that Beijing “firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security,” and opposes “external interference” and “actions and even inhumane practices that deprive the Cuban people of their right to survival and development.” He also reiterated support for lifting the embargo and any pressure policy.

Nevertheless, the response does not differ from statements made in previous days or from those China once made regarding Maduro’s Venezuela. This Tuesday, Guo used very similar language when the new executive order was not yet known. “We urge the U.S. side to stop depriving the Cuban people of their right to survival and development, to end the blockade and the sanctions against Cuba,” he said, adding that China will continue to support the Island “within its capabilities.”

Attention is now turning to Russia, which in 2026 supplied about 6,000 barrels of fuel per day, according to the University of Texas Energy Institute. For the moment, the Kremlin has not spoken, although Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, did address a related issue: the chances that the U.S. could achieve political change on the Island similar to what it achieved in Caracas. “In Venezuela, without a doubt, a betrayal took place. It is something spoken about quite openly. A part of the senior officials, in fact, betrayed the president,” Nebenzya said in statements to Russian television. He added: “That little trick won’t work in Cuba.”

“In Venezuela, without a doubt, a betrayal took place. That little trick won’t work in Cuba”

Another focal point is Mexico, Cuba’s main crude supplier after Venezuela. This Thursday, before Trump’s measure was announced, the U.S. president spoke with his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum, in what he described as a “very productive” conversation on border issues and drug trafficking. “Mexico has a wonderful and very intelligent leader. They should be very happy with that!” the president remarked.

Sheinbaum, for her part, has spent several days carefully navigating the issue with the press, which has persistently asked about the cancellation of a Pemex crude shipment that was supposed to arrive in Cuba at the end of January. The Mexican president maintained that it was a “sovereign” decision by the state company and that crude would continue to be sent depending on the company’s decisions or, failing that, on a government decision for “humanitarian reasons.” In 2025, between 6,000 and 12,000 barrels per day arrived on the Island from Mexico, depending on estimates. Although two weeks ago the U.S. Secretary of Energy said he would not pressure Mexico to suspend those exports, Trump’s latest statements point in the opposite direction.

“It seems it won’t be able to survive. Cuba won’t be able to survive,” the U.S. president said last night. When asked whether he is trying to “strangle” Cuba, he replied that the word is “very harsh,” but insisted that the Island is “a failed nation.”

“You have to feel sorry for Cuba because they have treated people very badly. We have many Cuban Americans who were treated very badly and would like to return,” he said to close the matter.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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changing course to a much more northerly destination: Denmark, where it is expected to arrive on February 4, according to Vessel Finder.

Sheinbaum shed little light on the matter, even when asked directly. “Are you denying that the oil shipment was suspended or is about to be suspended?” a reporter asked. “It is a sovereign decision and is taken at the moment it is deemed necessary,” she insisted. The president nevertheless denounced the U.S. blockade preventing Venezuelan crude from reaching Cuba, which “has generated a supply problem,” she said.

“Mexico has always been supportive and Mexico will continue to be supportive. So the decision of when it is sent, how it is sent, is a sovereign decision and depends on what Pemex determines, based on contracts or, in any case, on a government decision of a humanitarian nature to send it under certain circumstances,” she concluded.

Speculation continued in the country on Tuesday. Some analysts maintain that shipments are being halted out of fear of U.S. reprisals, although the U.S. Secretary of Energy said they would not ask Mexico to take such a step. Others believe it may simply be due to supply problems, and a third group argues that if the explanation were technical, it would have been made public.

On Tuesday, the Ticket system indicated the restocking of 8 of the 24 gas stations in eastern Havana

The last tanker to arrive in Cuba from Mexico was the Ocean Mariner, on January 9, carrying 86,000 barrels of crude, which Havana’s Ñico López refinery is currently processing to supply fuel to the capital’s gas stations. On Tuesday, the Ticket system indicated the restocking of 8 of the 24 gas stations in eastern Havana, all of which had been closed just the day before. Meanwhile, in the western area, only 6 of the 14 stations were operating.

In the past year, according to Mexican outlet Animal Político, Mexico sent Cuba oil worth $556 million, although it is still unknown how or who paid for it or whether it was a barter or a donation, the latter being the only option denied by Pemex.

According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), over the 31-year period from January 1993 to September 2024, oil exports to Cuba totaled $841.9 million. By contrast, in just 13 months of the Sheinbaum administration (October 2024 to November 2025), Cuba received Mexican crude worth more than $1.1 billion.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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Santiago de Cuba, two of the five eastern regions hardest hit by Melissa.

The shipments have included rice, beans, cooking oil, sugar, water purification tablets, pots, kitchen utensils, blankets, and flashlights.

The donation has become another point of friction between the governments of both countries. When U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in October the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Cuban people to prevent it from being controlled by Cuban authorities, the regime criticized him for attempting to bypass official channels in what it called a form of “political opportunism.”

The Catholic Church offered itself as a neutral channel to distribute the aid, a proposal that some saw as a solution, while others argued that the institution is too closely linked to the authorities.

When the first shipment arrived, Cuban authorities complained that, after so much time, they had learned of the cargo’s arrival through the Church rather than through official communication from the United States. Nevertheless, they said they would accept the aid, as it was a donation from the American people as taxpayers through their taxes.

On Wednesday, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) announced a new donation, also aimed at those affected by the hurricane, with a total value of €1.2 million. In a press release reviewing the coordinated response following Melissa, the organization added that “additional resources have been mobilized thanks to contributions from three international donors.”

Most of the funding comes from the European Union through its humanitarian aid agency (European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations—ECHO), with €700,000 approved for the rehabilitation of affected health institutions, strengthening epidemiological surveillance, and the acquisition of medicines, diagnostic supplies, vector-control equipment, and resources to ensure safe water and restore the functional capacity of services.

In addition, the Government of Korea has contributed $300,000 for generators, emergency kits, and hygiene supplies aimed at restoring essential services and preventing infectious diseases. Finally, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints provided $300,000 for the purchase of emergency supplies, rapid tests for communicable diseases, and equipment for vector-control actions.

“During the last quarter of 2025, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) supported the country’s response to the damage caused by Hurricane Melissa, in a context also marked by a simultaneous outbreak of dengue and chikungunya. To respond to Melissa, more than 11 tons of essential medical supplies were sent from PAHO’s Strategic Reserve in Panama; several field assessment visits were conducted, and work was carried out with different partners to expand the reach of the aid. Three months after the event, recovery actions supported by partners continue to be implemented, and this will remain the case over the next six months,” the statement adds.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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trade, and investments,” the president said on social media.

Later, at her morning press conference, Sheinbaum explicitly stated that she did not speak with Trump about Cuba, but that she could facilitate negotiations between the two countries. “Obviously, if Mexico were to become a vehicle for communication between the United States and Cuba, both sides would have to agree, evidently,” she said, hours after the American president had demanded that Havana sit down to negotiate and even claimed that they already were, something denied by the Cuban side.

The Mexican president has since insisted that cooperation with Cuba is historic and will continue, but this Friday Reuters published a report based on statements from three high-level sources who said the Mexican government is evaluating whether to maintain, reduce, or suspend crude supplies to the Island out of fear of retaliation. “There is real fear of antagonizing Trump just when Mexico needs room to negotiate with Washington,” one official told the agency. The report coincided with Politico publishing that the White House is considering invoking the Helms-Burton Act to “impose a total blockade on oil imports made by Cuba.”

Mexican officials said there has been a growing presence of U.S. Navy drones over the Gulf of Mexico, following routes similar to those of tanker ships carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba. “It’s impossible not to read that as a message,” one source admitted.

The cancellation of the January shipment, in any case, predates those reports, but the context is unmistakable. The last Pemex crude shipment to reach Cuba was aboard the Ocean Mariner on January 9, with around 85,000 barrels of fuel from Veracruz.

In 2023, exports totaled about 16,000 barrels per day of oil and derivatives (worth roughly $300 million). In 2024, cooperation increased to 20,100 barrels per day, 20% more (although derivatives fell by 18%), with an estimated total value of $600 million.

Between January and September 2025, Mexico supplied Cuba through Pemex subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar with around 19,200 barrels per day, according to official documents: 17,200 barrels of crude and 2,000 of derivatives. University of Texas expert Jorge Piñón estimates that in the first 13 months of the Sheinbaum administration, from October 2024 to November 2025, the average was 8,700 barrels per day.

Pemex is currently the largest oil supplier in the absence of Venezuelan crude, since contributions from Russia, Iran, and Algeria have been very limited, at least until now. Even so, Cuba, which needs at least 110,000 barrels per day and produces only 40,000 of heavy crude (usable only for thermal power plants) is in a severe energy crisis, and blackouts are beginning to exceed 40 uninterrupted hours in several provinces.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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The difficulties in getting the milling machinery running at Enidio Díaz Machado are a chronicle of a death foretold. A year ago, the province of Granma “officially” celebrated the start of the 2024–2025 sugar harvest, but “technical problems stopped the machines” just two hours after work began.

The causes have not changed since then. The harvest, which was supposed to begin in December 2024, could not start due to “shortages of lubricants and fuels” for the machinery. Several weeks passed trying to solve the “technical failures and shortcomings,” and when cane milling finally began, it ran only from 5:00 to 7:00 a.m. and at barely 70% of capacity.

The condition of the mills is one of the reasons milling nationwide is minimal. It should be recalled that in 1959 Cuba had 161 sugar mills in private hands that produced 5.6 million tons of sugar that year. The plants were kept in shape during the decades of Soviet subsidies, yielding the best sugar production figures between the 1970s and 1980s—more than 8.5 million tons—though never reaching the Fidelist utopia of “the 10 million.”

In 1959, Cuba had 161 mills in private hands that produced 5.6 million tons of sugar that year

Traditionally, Cuba consumed 700,000 tons and exported the rest, but with current production the picture has changed radically: it has now been forced to import much of the sugar it needs for its population and has been unable to fulfill export contracts. There is an even more serious symptom: since at least 2020, every harvest on the Island has been labeled the worst of the last 100 years. For example, the 2021–2022 harvest closed with 473,720 of the projected 911,000 tons. The following season it fell to 350,000 tons, well below the 400,000 required for domestic consumption.

A year later, the 2023–2024 harvest was practically the death of Cuban sugar, with production of barely 160,000 tons, while the most recent one, according to data compiled by the EFE news agency and published by this newspaper, barely reached 147,652 tons.

All of this led to the Island paying the United States $14.9 million for sugar last year alone, while in 2024 it spent $11.1 million, according to figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in addition to importing significant quantities from France and Brazil.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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the strategic relationship between Havana and Caracas.

The report, signed by Edward Roberts Campbell, chief prosecutor of the Directorate for Combating Corruption and Illegalities, states that the former minister allegedly provided classified data to “an unidentified agent, but presumably belonging to the CIA,” thereby compromising “Venezuelan national security.” The leaked information reportedly included bilateral economic transactions, oil agreements, financial triangulation schemes, the deployment of Cuban medical brigades, and even details of Cuban support in cybersecurity and counterintelligence to Nicolás Maduro’s regime.

The indictment goes even further, including alleged personal data on Maduro himself, his family, his residence, assets inside and outside Venezuela including in Cuba, and details of the security ring made up of Cuban military personnel from the Ministry of the Interior and the Revolutionary Armed Forces. All of this was presented as an operation intended to “undermine Venezuelan sovereignty and overthrow its legitimate president.”

The emphasis on Venezuela and on an alleged “internal traitor” aligns with the narrative of confrontation with Washington

Nevertheless, the very development of the case leaves gaps that are difficult to ignore. According to testimony consulted by 14ymedio, in August 2022 it was planned that Díaz-Canel himself would meet with Maduro, but State Security recommended that Gil go instead, due to the “high level of trust” placed in him. The meeting took place at the Miraflores Palace and was widely publicized by the official press of both countries.

The subsequent chronology is even more contradictory. If, as official programs maintain, Gil had been under investigation since at least 2020, it is hard to explain why in 2022 and 2023 he was authorized to travel at the highest level, accompanying Díaz-Canel on a tour of China, Algeria, Russia, and Turkey, and being designated Cuba’s sole representative to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

A source with access to the prosecution’s case admits that they do not know whether the allegations related to Venezuela were proven with conclusive evidence during the trial. “I cannot say that it was demonstrated that Gil delivered sensitive information to the CIA, nor that those facts supported the life sentence,” the source notes.

The international context adds another layer of interpretation. The emphasis on Venezuela and on an alleged “internal traitor” coincides with the narrative of confrontation with Washington under the administration of Donald Trump, which has opted to tighten pressure on the allies of Caracas and Havana.

Thus, the trial of Alejandro Gil not only seals the downfall of the most powerful official purged in at least 15 years, but also exposes the internal tensions of a system that, in the face of economic collapse and international isolation, appears to need visible culprits. If Gil was a spy, he was one with inexplicable freedom; and if he was not, his sentence illustrates how far power can go when it decides to protect those who operate at the highest levels.

Translated by Regina Anavy

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COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.

of that stance. “There is a real fear of antagonizing Trump just when Mexico needs room to negotiate with Washington,” another official told the agency.

The cost of defying Trump could be too high at a moment of maximum bilateral tension.

That room is crucial. Mexico is seeking to renegotiate aspects of the USMCA trade agreement with the United States and Canada, while also trying to convince Washington that it is acting decisively against drug cartels. In that context, the oil reaching Cuba has become an uncomfortable issue. Trump has been explicit: in a message posted on his Truth Social network on January 11, he said there would be “no more oil or money for Cuba.” For several members of the Mexican cabinet, those words are a direct warning.

According to Reuters, the issue was even raised during a recent phone call between Trump and Sheinbaum. Two sources indicated that the U.S. president asked directly about crude shipments and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico. Sheinbaum’s response was to insist on the humanitarian nature of the oil and the legality of the health agreement. Trump, the sources add, did not explicitly demand a suspension, but made his displeasure clear.

Officials consulted by Reuters expressed concern about the growing presence of U.S. Navy drones over the Gulf of Mexico. Flight-tracking data, circulated by local media, show at least a dozen Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drone missions over the Bay of Campeche, following routes similar to those of tankers carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba. “It’s impossible not to read that as a message,” one source admitted.

At the same time, Trump has intensified his rhetoric against Mexico, claiming the country is “run by the cartels” and suggesting the possibility of ground attacks. Sheinbaum has offered greater judicial cooperation, including the extradition of nearly a hundred kingpins, but has also drawn a red line against any unilateral military action. “The fear is that a decision about Cuba could get mixed up with the security and sovereignty issue,” another official explained to Reuters.

Within the Mexican government, the debate is far from settled. Some voices argue that maintaining the supply is a moral obligation and an investment in regional stability. “Cutting off oil could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in Cuba and trigger mass migration toward Mexico,” one source warned. Others, by contrast, caution that the cost of defying Trump could be too high at a moment of maximum bilateral tension.

The regime clings to its economic and political model while the White House insists that Cuba “is failing of its own volition.”

Data show that the volume sent to Cuba does not affect Mexico’s industry. Between January and September of last year, Pemex exported to the Island about 17,200 barrels per day of crude and 2,000 barrels of refined products, worth roughly $400 million. “It’s little oil for Mexico, but vital for Cuba,” Sheinbaum summarized this week in defending that solidarity, adding that it “does not have to disappear.”

The fuel shortage not only paralyzes private transport but has also dried up the informal market, a traditional pressure valve in times of crisis. “My neighbor sells gasoline. I just asked him and he says he doesn’t have any. I ask how much it costs and where I can get it. He tells me it’s pointless; there isn’t any even on the street,” the driver tells 14ymedio, resigned to a scarcity that no longer allows shortcuts.

The lack of electricity has turned bakeries with generators into some of the few regular food supply points. “You should see what the bakeries are like at night. It’s the only thing there is to eat, and only because they have generators,” he explains. Bread, often stale and rationed, has become the last guarantee against blackouts and shortages.

In Cuban neighborhoods, waiting is not measured in barrels or millions of dollars, but in hours spent in lines, nights without light, and increasingly empty tables. The regime clings to its economic and political model while the White House insists that Cuba “is falling by its own choice” and maintains that the country should “reach an agreement before it’s too late.”

Translated by Regina Anavy

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