Faced With an Increase in Production and Broken Power Plants, Cuba Could Be Exporting National Oil

The Russian oil tanker ’Akademik Gubkin,’ sanctioned by the United States / Marine Traffic / Genggiz Tokgoz

14ymedio bigger14ymedio, 16 February 2025, Madrid — The Pozo Varadero 1012, located near Boca de Camarioca, Matanzas, and inaugurated by the Cuba Petroleum Union (Cupet) and the Chinese company Gran Muralla last March, already produces 350,000 metric tonnes daily. The data was released by the official journalist José Miguel Solís this Saturday from the information provided by officials of the Center Oil Drilling and Extraction Company in a meeting of the Ministry of Energy and Mines.

In a Facebook post, Solís says that this was possible “as a result of the implementation of incentive measures and greater availability of tank vehicles.” The production of hydrocarbons in Cuba, he said, grew in 2024 by 11% compared to the previous year, and the projections for this year “indicate the possibility of continued drilling in the so-called heavy crude oil strip, a region of promising horizons in terms of gas and crude.”

Dozens of comments immediately filled Solís’ post, among which a recurring question sneaks in: why, if oil production increases, are there blackouts and fuel shortages in the country? The official journalist hastens to note that national crude oil, with a high sulfur content, goes to the thermal power plants (CTEs), such as the Guiteras, and to cement factories. For vehicles and the Turkish patanas — floating power plants — and generators, refined oil is used, which has to be imported.

“And where is the oil from the thermoelectric plants that are shut down for breakage and maintenance?”

But another user then introduces an objection: “And where is the oil from the thermoelectric plants that are shut down for breakage and maintenance?” The question is not trivial and is asked by specialists such as Jorge Piñón, who worked for more than 30 years in the international oil industry and estimates that this surplus may be being sold outside the Island.

Already last December, in fact, the Australian oil company Melbana Energy, which has had permits from the regime to explore the Island’s deposits for a decade, announced that in 2025 it would export Cuban crude oil for the first time.

“More than half of Cuba’s CTEs that run on national crude oil are out of service, and the rest operate at an average of 60% of their installed capacity. Where does Cuba’s production of heavy crude oil go that is not being consumed as a result of this situation?” he wonders. Piñón shares that same reflection with this newspaper, and he calculates a total production of national oil on the Island of about 38,000 barrels per day (about 5,428 tonnes), more than a million barrels per month (almost 143,000 tonnes). Clarifying that he does not have an answer, the Cuban consultant living in Texas exposes a series of arguments that reinforce the hypothesis of export.

One of them is that despite the decrease in demand for its main customer – the Cuban power plants – the Government is aware that “closing an oil production well is not an option.” The Island’s shallow-water oil wells, Piñón explains, are “mature” fields, which have been producing for more than thirty years. “Closing a mature oil well in production carries the risk of significantly reduced production when it restarts, and it will potentially never return to its previous flow,” he says. “Changes in pressure in the deposit and the accumulation of deposits inside the well as a result of prolonged inactivity increase the chances of permanent damage and the need for expensive repairs to restart production.”

Singapore, continues Piñón, would be the best destination for Cuban crude oil 

Another argument is that Cuba’s storage capacity for crude oil is limited, especially since the fire at the Matanzas Supertanker Base in August 2022, in which the country lost “one million barrels of storage capacity.” The destroyed storage tanks are under reconstruction but far from being in operation soon.

Taking this into account, Piñón thinks that either “some of the Cuban-flagged tankers are temporarily being used as floating storage tanks,” or Cuba is exporting part of its heavy oil production “under the radar,” or both.

In this regard, the expert says: “The Russian-flagged oil tanker Akademik Gubkin, allegedly bound for Cuba and sanctioned by the United States, which transports more than 650,000 barrels of Russian crude oil, could be a timely candidate for a return trip exporting Cuban heavy crude.” Singapore, continues Piñón, “would be the best destination for Cuban crude oil.”

According to the specialist, Singapore has “a prominent oil storage and mixing industry, considered one of the world’s main centers for oil trade and refining, mainly due to its strategic location in Southeast Asia, its deep-sea port facilities and its solid infrastructure that allows efficient storage and mixing of various petroleum products to export them to the Asian market in general, with companies that actively mix different sources of oil, including the cheapest Russian oil, to create mixed products for sale worldwide.”

Translated by Regina Anavy

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