García Granda predicts only 2.6 million international travelers to Cuba by 2025, after five years of failed forecasts
14ymedio, Madrid, 17 December 2024 — As has already happened with the sugar industry, the Government presented on Monday a projection of declining tourism. The strategy – premeditated or not – consists of underestimating the annual forecasts, even if in the end the results are even worse than the official forecasts. For 2025, the authorities of the sector are forecasting 2.6 million tourists, 18% more than than the 2.2 million they announced, Minister Juan Carlos García Granda said before the National Assembly.
Let’s review the sequence. Excluding 2020, when the pandemic forced the closure of airspace in much of the world, Cuba projected a recovery of tourism for 2021, when 2.2 million international visitors should have arrived. The figure was modest if you take into account that in 2019 – the last year before Covid – 2.4 million people visited the Island, but evaluating the pandemic was expected to be complex, and it was estimated that Cuba would receive only half as many as two years ago. Only 573,944 tourists arrived, 61% less than official forecasts.
The desire to travel and the savings achieved in the pandemic strongly reactivated the sector, and García Granda was encouraged enough to say that by 2022, 2.5 million international travelers would arrive on the Island. Manuel Marrero, who before being prime minister was the strongman of Tourism in Cuba, warned in May that Cuba would have to wait one more year for the improvement, but no one listened to him until, almost at the end of 2022, the ambitious forecast was reduced to 1.7 million, and the total reached 1,614,087 foreign visitors.
The desire to travel and the savings achieved in the pandemic strongly reactivated the sector, and García Granda was encouraged enough to say that by 2022, 2.5 million tourists would arrive
For 2023, an optimistic forecast was made again: the goal was 3.5 million tourists. But the monthly data made it clear that it was not going to be reached, and the final figure remained at 2.4 million. Despite the fact that the data were very far from the projections, at least they improved, but 2024 has been a disaster.
The latest available data, for the month of October, indicated that 1,844,917 tourists had arrived. The forecast at the beginning of the year was to achieve 3.2 million for the 12 months, lowered to 2.7 million this September. Yesterday, García Granda – in an unexpected twist – spoke of a forecast that had never been cited in public. “It was proposed to reach 4.3 million visitors taking into account the frequency of international flights entering the country. This was only fulfilled by 62%,” he said, according to Cubadebate, although the accounts indicate that it would be 51 percent.
The official press finally admits that 2024 represented “a decrease compared to the previous year and for the first time since the pandemic,” something that the independent press and economists have warned about since at least April, when the data began to worsen with respect to the same month of the previous year.
García Granda said on Monday that it is necessary to “perfect a closed financing scheme and ensure compliance with standards throughout the country’s tourism system. This is essential for the recovery of the sector. We must present a decent tourist product, which stimulates demand,” he said, ignoring that the problems of tourism are not of the sector itself, but of the country.
In a scenario of shortages affecting even the best hotels, the authorities have made it easier not only for Meliá to have an import company to obtain what it cannot get on the Island, but also Vima, the Galician food company, would have privileges. “It was approved for Vima and Meliá to have import companies and carry out wholesale trade, so they can supply the tourist facilities directly,” the minister said on Monday.
As if he wanted to hide from the criticism of the exaggerated investment in hotels made by the regime, García Granda stressed that this year “no new investments have occurred, only works that are already in progress”
As if he wanted to hide from the criticism of the regime’s exaggerated investment in hotels, García Granda stressed that this year “no new investments have occurred, only works that are already in progress.” Be that as it may, the official data speak of an economic imbalance towards the tourism sector. Between January and September, 64,973.3 million pesos (2,707 million dollars, at the official exchange rate for the State) were invested in the sector, 4.6 times more than the sum for Agriculture, Education and Health. In view of the results, it is indisputable that resources are being directed unproductively.
The minister also mentioned the impact of the high cost of aviation fuel on tourism. Two weeks ago, the Island was about to plunge into chaos after having to suspend and modify air routes due to lack of fuel. The alert could have been canceled just a day later by managing to finance a load and guarantee the A-1 Jet until at least January, but the scenario does not engender confidence in the airlines. A week ago, the German airline Condor announced that it has been suspending summer routes since May, the first time since 1990.
García Granda also mentioned that emigration and the lack of jobs tourism generates does not help to raise the sector, as well as the blackouts and meteorological disasters. But he also cited a novel factor: growing insecurity is having an effect. “Since the beginning of 2024, there has been a downward trend in Cuba’s security perception index,” he admitted. Warnings by some of the main Canadian and European providers of tourism increased as problems grew in Cuba, with notices to clients about shortages of food and fuel, diseases and blackouts.
“When there are resources, rice and grain are prioritized, but currently there is no funding”
In the same session of Parliament, Minister of Internal Trade Betsy Díaz Velázquez together with Tamara Valido Benítez, explained the problems with the “basic family basket.” Generalities and empty words abounded, such as “the population longs to hear possible solutions,” “high prices are daily concerns,” “attention to the population’s approach is an indicator of efficiency,” and so on.
The only concrete information that slipped in was the absolute lack of funding to guarantee a basic basket that has already been killed punctually every year, without being buried. “Every day we evaluate how to incorporate food, what is imported and donated, and also how to distribute it. When there are resources, rice and grain are prioritized, but currently there is no financing,” the minister said. “We must get all forms of management incorporated,” although many that are already private are starting to close because of the ban on importing and because they refuse to sell to the State.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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