Havana’s Plaza de la Revolución municipality tops the list with 38.2%, followed by the province of Villa Clara with 30.2%, while Guantánamo is the youngest region, with 23.3% having reached old age
14ymedio, Madrid, October 21, 2026 / Cuba has the largest population over 60 on the entire continent, and the figures are advancing by leaps and bounds. This is revealed in the 2025 yearbook on demographic aging, published this Tuesday by the National Office of Statistics and Information [ONEI]. Older adults now account for 26.7% of the total population, an increase of exactly one point compared with 2024, when the figure stood at 25.7%.
Data from Cepal [ECLAC, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean] show that this is by far the highest figure in the continent’s statistics and classify the country as having “very accelerated” aging. Second on the list is Uruguay, with 21.8%, followed by Chile with 19.5% and Argentina with 17.2%. However, a quick look at the trajectory of its main competitors in the category is enough to see the difference.
In 2015, the population over 60 in Cuba was 19.4%, which means growth of 7.3 points in just ten years. Uruguay had 19.4% a decade ago and now has 21.8% (2.7 points), while Argentina went from 14.9% to 17% (2.1 more). Chile, the only one with faster growth, has gone from 15% to 19.5%, which represents 4.5 points over the whole decade.
Moreover, zooming in even further, it can be seen that in Cuba the acceleration has become extreme in the last five years, since 2021
Moreover, zooming in even further, it can be seen that in Cuba the acceleration has become extreme in the last five years, since 2021. While between the years 2014 and 2019 to 2021 aging remained between 18% and 21%, the big rise came in the last four years, with a jump of 5 points. The timing coincides with the combination of two factors that triggered the migration crisis on the island: the end of the pandemic – which opened doors that had been almost completely shut for two years – and the Island-wide protests of 11 July 2021, which brought thousands of people into the streets against the regime.
Frustration over the change that did not happen and the repression of the protesters were the last straw for thousands of people who left Cuba in search of a better future. Officially, the loss is estimated at 15%, more than 1.6 million people. Independent experts speak of 24%, 80% of them in the 15 to 59 age bracket, that is, people of working and childbearing age.
By province, Villa Clara takes first place, with 30.2% of adults over 60, but Havana follows closely, with 29.1%, even though it is one of the territories that benefits most from internal migration, gaining population that moves to the capital in search of work – which affects a younger segment.
Havana is currently home to 1,673,208 people, of whom 486,650 are over 60, almost a third of the total, which highlights the alarming problem in the care sector, along with other closely related ones such as health. By contrast, children under 14 number barely 251,527, confirming the low birth rate of the province, which also has the oldest municipality on the island: Plaza de la Revolución, with 38.2%.
At the opposite end are Guantánamo, the youngest, with 23.3% – and which in turn is home to the municipality with the fewest older people, 17.9% – along with Santiago de Cuba and Artemisa, both with 24.2%. In this case, although these provinces retain a high number of retirees who stay in these areas, poverty – which holds back migration – and higher fertility rates – which coincide with eastern Cuba – bring the average age down.
At the opposite end are Guantánamo, the youngest, with 23.3% – and which in turn is home to the municipality with the fewest older people, 17.9% – along with Santiago de Cuba and Artemisa, both with 24.2%
In its introduction, the ONEI points out that births are also at extremely low levels, with just 68,064 births and a total fertility rate of only 1.29 children per woman, the lowest figure in history. The report notes that, given the progressive aging of its population, Cuba faces the challenge of “reorienting its economic model toward demographic sustainability, promoting inclusive employment, technological innovation and policies that integrate older adults into the economy.”
In a long interview with this newspaper, demographer Juan Carlos Albizu* warned of the risks of not making changes to deal with the island’s demographic crisis, including reform of the pension system. “If what has to change hasn’t changed, we’re going to have a very hard time, because the State, which is already socioeconomically bankrupt, would have no other way out than to abandon people to their fate.”
According to ONEI experts, Cuba will reach 36% population aging by 2040, and the population will have fallen to 8.3 million inhabitants. Unlike other countries, the island currently has no prospect of changing this dynamic through immigration.
*See also these articles and this one.
Translated by GH
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