Economist Pedro Monreal points to the failure of the floating exchange rate created by the government a month ago in its latest attempt to revalue the national currency

14ymedio, Holguín/Sancti Spíritus, Havana, Miguel García, Mercedes García, and Darío Hernández, January 22, 2026 – Just over a month after the official floating exchange rate went into effect, promising to revalue the national currency, the dollar has soared to 500 pesos in some parts of Cuba, such as Holguín. That is 10 CUP more per USD than the rate reported this Thursday by the independent platform El Toque (490) in its daily tracking of informal-market currency trading.
This was confirmed by a resident of Holguín who owns the electric tricycle he uses for work, whose electronic control box burned out. When he asked about prices, a private seller told him it cost $190. “I asked him what that was in pesos, because I didn’t have USD and had no way to get them, and after insisting that he preferred dollars, he told me the dollar was at 500 pesos.”
At the same time, mipymes [‘MSMEs’ — micro, small and medium-sized private enterprises] in the eastern city have raised prices for basic goods such as cooking oil, spaghetti, and chicken. “Starting this week, it’s going to be huge,” a Holguín resident laments ironically. Some merchants argue that inflation is precisely due to the new price of the dollar. “Due to the rise of the USD, there may be some price changes in certain products, but it’s nothing serious; we’re making an effort to keep prices as fair as possible,” they promise in a WhatsApp group.
“It’s not at all fair. They say they made the last purchase at one price for the dollar, but the next one will more expensive, so they’ll have to raise prices”
“Can you imagine? It’s not at all fair. They say they made the last purchase at one price for the dollar, but the next one will be more expensive, so they’ll have to raise prices,” the same woman says. continue reading
In Sancti Spíritus, most informal stalls are offering the dollar at the rate reported by El Toque, 490 CUP, but according to a source in the city, “there’s a mipyme that’s taking it at 500.” Meanwhile, in Havana, in most neighborhoods the dollar can be found at 490 pesos, but two days ago, at the La Cuevita market in San Miguel del Padrón, it was being bought at 480.
That same Tuesday, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal documented the failure of the most recent exchange-rate measures, comparing them to preparations for the “war of the whole people,” announced after the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the U. S. in Caracas and the death of 32 Cuban soldiers in the operation. “Exactly one month passed between the announcement of a new official floating exchange rate and the notification of the analysis and approval of plans and measures for the ‘transition to a State of War’ in Cuba,” tweeted the specialist, who lives in Spain. “So far, the floating rate is fighting a losing battle.”
For now, Monreal continued, the peso “has depreciated 3.9% against the USD under the floating rate, failing to meet the government’s expectation that the ‘new official foreign-exchange market’ would help restore the purchasing power of the national currency.”
In effect, when the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) launched without prior notice an official floating exchange rate on December 18, to be added to the other two operating in the country: one at 1×24 for centralized state allocations for goods and services deemed essential, and another at 1×120 for certain “entities with the capacity to generate foreign currency,” such as tourism. The government presented it as the start of a transformation of the foreign-exchange market aimed at “bringing order” to the economy and moving toward future monetary unification.
In practice, however, the Island entered an even more complex stage of exchange-rate segmentation amid the worst economic crisis in decades. It quickly became evident that the population was ignoring the official rate, which was paradoxically very close to El Toque’s, against which the government had waged a harsh propaganda campaign months earlier, and they continued exchanging dollars on the informal market.
The peso “has depreciated 3.9% against the USD under the floating rate, failing to meet the government’s expectations”
In the following weeks, it could be seen that at state-run currency exchange offices (Cadeca), where dollars are virtually nonexistent and where the dollar was theoretically selling this Thursday at 457.92 pesos, only elderly people came to collect their pensions.
On January 9, yet another policy was added to the already convoluted exchange-rate market. The BCC opened a banking channel allowing private mipymes to legally purchase foreign currency through banks, but under very strict rules.
Thus, purchases by these private entrepreneurs can only be made based on the new floating rate, only once a month, and without being able to choose the amount. The amount is calculated by the bank by taking the average of what the mipyme deposited into its tax account over the previous three months, using only half of that money and converting it at the floating exchange rate in effect at the time.
In practice, this means that if a mipyme has had low or irregular income, it will be able to buy very few dollars, even if it urgently needs them to import raw materials, pay for services, or fulfill contracts. And if the business is just starting and does not yet have an income history, it could simply be left out altogether.
The BCC also made it clear that the entire process would be “bankarized.” Cuban pesos must be debited from the tax account, and the purchased foreign currency can only be deposited into the economic actor’s own foreign-currency account. No cash, no informal transfers, and no room for maneuver. Before approving the transaction, the bank will review the client’s identity, accounts, and the origin of the funds, as part of the controls that currently weigh on any economic activity on the Island.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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