Some 96% consider political change “extremely urgent” and 82% point to the lack of freedoms as the country’s main problem.
14ymedio, Havana, April 27, 2026 — The online survey promoted by the independent media outlet El Toque —supported by more than 20 independent media outlets and coordinated by journalists and social scientists—to gauge opinions on the country’s political and social situation has exceeded initial expectations. In less than three days, it has already accumulated more than 29,200 responses, well above the 10,000 projected by the closing date of May 1.
Of the total, 59% of the participants are located within Cuba – 17,240 at this time, according to the anonymous geolocation detection of the digital platform – despite the difficulties of connection and the state control of internet access.
The results released this Monday—which can be viewed live at this link —reveal overwhelming rejection of the current political model in Cuba. 96% of those surveyed consider political change on the island “extremely urgent.” 94% are “very dissatisfied” with the system of government, and 90% describe Cuban state policies as “completely inauthentic.”
Only 4.7% of those surveyed mentioned the US embargo as one of the country’s central problems.
When asked about “Cuba’s main problems today,” the numbers are striking: 82.4% identify limitations on civil and political rights as the country’s primary problem, even surpassing the economic crisis, cited by 52.9%. Government inefficiency and inaction also rank highly at 75.2%, while 47.7% denounce institutional corruption. In contrast, the US embargo appears far behind: only 4.7% mention it as a central problem, a stark contrast to the official narrative of the Cuban state.
The perception of a disconnect between power and the citizenry is widespread. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed claim to have no influence on government decisions. Regarding trust in the main political figures of the State, on a scale of 1 to 5 ranging from “no trust” to “full trust,” the average score is extremely low: 1.1. When asked to identify leaders with “favorable performance,” the most frequent response is “none” and “nobody.”
When imagining a transition, the rejection of current structures is almost absolute: 99% would eliminate the Communist Party, 98% the business system of the Armed Forces, and the same percentage would dismantle the State Security apparatus and state control of the media.
Some 99% would eliminate the Communist Party, 98% the business system of the Armed Forces, 98% would dismantle the State Security apparatus and state control of the media
Some 76.8% believe the country should transition to a liberal democracy with a market economy, while only 0.1% support the socialist system as it stands. Even including those who believe socialism should be reformed, support for that model does not exceed 1.4%.
As a means to resolve the internal political conflict, 60.4% of Cubans on the island support the overthrow of the government “by any means necessary,” including armed struggle. Of all those surveyed in the diaspora, 70.4% voted for this option.
Some 21.3% of all respondents prefer a negotiated transition, and only 10.1% trust peaceful mobilization as the main tool.
Regarding the role of the US and international influence in achieving political change in Cuba, 47.1% support maintaining the US embargo as a pressure tool – 44% within Cuba, 51% from the diaspora – while another 24.4% advocate for its gradual elimination.
Of Cubans on the island 60.4% support the overthrow of the government “by any means necessary,” including armed struggle.
More than a quarter of those surveyed (27.5%) support direct US military intervention. When this figure is broken down by Cubans abroad and Cubans on the island, the numbers are similar: 26.7% of all respondents within Cuba and 28.7% of Cubans in the diaspora vote in favor.
There is also consensus on what to preserve from the current system during a transition, with 73% prioritizing universal healthcare and education. An additional 68%—an identical figure among Cubans both on and off the island—vote in favor of preserving national sovereignty and independence from foreign powers.
Although the organizers themselves warn that the survey is not probabilistic and is conditioned by unequal access to the internet, the volume of responses and the strength of the figures make it a significant indicator of citizen discontent.
Some 68% – the same figure among Cubans outside and inside the Island – vote in favor of preserving national sovereignty and independence from foreign powers
The state-run media outlet Razones de Cuba has reacted with a smear campaign , attempting to discredit the survey by contrasting it with the pro-government mobilization “My Signature for the Fatherland,” promoted by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, an initiative that has already been denounced for the coercion it exerts on citizens to seek support.
Cuban researcher and journalist Hilda Landrove noted in a post on social media that, despite the limitations of any survey in a restrictive environment like Cuba, and even applying high correction margins, the magnitude of the survey results leaves no doubt about the state of opinion of the Cuban population inside and outside the country.
Amelia Calzadilla, director of Citizenship and Freedom Training and one of the promoters of the survey, told Martí Noticias that the response patterns themselves demonstrate a demand for greater citizen participation in political life.
The level of dissatisfaction with government management is above 95%.
For Calzadilla, the fact that the lack of civil and political liberties appears as the country’s main problem, according to those surveyed, reflects the population’s desire to “participate in order to fix” (the situation). The activist interprets the volume of responses as a symptom of accumulating social discontent and a willingness to express opinions directly when relatively safe channels are opened.
“If you review the survey, you’ll see that the level of dissatisfaction with the government’s management is above 95% of the participants. It’s producing very strong numbers,” the activist states.
The survey is still active and can be answered at this link.
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