The aging process took between two and three centuries in Europe, while on the Island it took just 124 years.
14ymedio, Madrid, 7 November 2024 — The aging of the Cuban population is accelerating at a dizzying pace, with 24.4% of the Island’s residents over 60 years of age (2,452,489), one point more than the previous year and almost five points more than in 2016 (19.8%), when it was already considered high. In 20 years, the increase was 9.7 percentage points.
The report, prepared by the Center for Population and Development Studies and published this Wednesday by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), updates the situation at the end of 2023 and offers some devastating data that show the speed of the process.
In 1899, only 4.6% of the people were over 60, giving an increase of 20 points in 124 years. The number would not be important if one takes into account that in the 20th century, advances in medicine and female emancipation led to a general aging of the population in the world, particularly in developed countries. However, as the report indicates, Cuba “took just over 120 years [to increase the elderly population by 20 points]. This same process in European countries took between two and three centuries.”
In addition to being the country with the most ageing in Latin America, experts have had to develop their own alternative scale
In its region, Cuba is also an anomaly. In addition to being the country with the most aging in Latin America, experts have had to develop their own scale, an alternative to that of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), to measure the groups of older people in Cuba. The statistics the organization applies to all of Latin America use three intervals that indicate the degree of aging: Group I refers to less than 10% of the population over 60 with respect to the total; Group II is between 10% and 15%; and in Group III the figure exceeds 15%.
“In this sense, and given the trajectory of the aging process in the country, it has been necessary to adapt the previous classification to the Cuban context, establishing a new typology, considering that all territories show increasing values,” says the report, which includes four groups for Cuba: in Group I the elderly represent less than 15% of the population; in Group II it is between 15 and 19.9%; in Group III between 20.0 and 24.9%; and it Group IV it exceeds 25%.
The report contains detailed data on the degree of population aging by province and municipality, sex and area of residence (urban or rural), for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The numerous tables show that a few municipalities fall below 20%, and these are: Alquizar in Artemisa (18.2%); Ciénaga de Zapata in Matanzas (19.6%); La Sierpe in Sancti Spíritus (19.2%); Bolivia and Baraguá in Ciego de Ávila (19.2 and 19.9%); Antillas in Holguín (19.1%); Río Cauto in Granma (19.4%); Tercer Frente and Guamá in Santiago de Cuba (19.4% and 19.2%).
Everything indicates that the higher rate of young population in Guantánamo is not linked to its greater development, but to its lower purchasing power
Guantánamo province is a special case, being the youngest overall (21.3%), and with a good number of municipalities with relatively low numbers. The lowest recorded is Yateras, with an aged population of 16%, followed by Caimanera (17%) and El Salvador (17.7%). All the others are between 19% and 20%, except for Baracoa and the main city. Unfortunately, everything indicates that the higher rate of young population in this province is not linked to its greater development, but to its lower purchasing power, which makes it difficult for individuals to emigrate.
At the other extreme, the province with the most aged is Villa Clara, with 27.8% of the population over 60 years old, followed by Havana (26.5%) and Sancti Spíritus (25.4%). All the municipalities in Villa Clara, without exception, are classified within group IV, but the highest percentage of the entire island, by a large margin, is in Plaza de la Revolución, with 35.1% of people over 60 years old.
Several municipalities in the capital city stand out for their high numbers, with Playa and Diez de Octubre, close to 30%, sharing the podium with the previous one. However, there are also many others, such as San Miguel del Padrón and Arroyo Naranjo, that remain in group III, making Havana not the province with the most aging population on the Island. In this case, there is a struggle between two circumstances: it is the area with the most job opportunities – and which, therefore, receives the largest internal population – but also with the most options of obtaining the money or contacts to leave the country.
In Cuba, the aging of the population is also due to a very notable “decline in the proportion of children under 14 years of age,” the report highlights, explaining how “all of this is present in the variation of the image of a pyramid with a wide base and narrow top, moving towards a rectangular shape.”
Experts also predict that the trend towards aging will continue to accelerate next year, which, the report highlights, means that “there are many challenges that the country must face in order to meet the needs of an increasingly large elderly population.”
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