The Havana Regime Swallows Hard Before the New Winds Blowing in Washington

The resentment of the the US State Department’s new leader towards Nicolás Maduro will also have repercussions on the Island. / EFE

14ymedio bigger14ymedio, Yoani Sánchez, Generation Y, Havana, 23 January 2025 — Cuba had been removed from the United States’ list of countries sponsoring terrorism for just six days. This Monday, after Donald Trump took office, the island’s regime was once again on a list that carries serious diplomatic and financial restrictions. Havana has barely had time to react to a see-saw that, in less than a week, has caused official spokespeople to go from declaring victory to cursing Washington.

Every time a new president arrives at the Oval Office, speculation about his role in the downfall of Castroism is high. In Trump’s case, there is a fairly unanimous consensus that his four years in office will be a real time in the wilderness for Miguel Díaz-Canel. In the midst of the greatest economic crisis of this century, the dictatorship finds itself in a state of extreme material fragility. The presence of Marco Rubio, son of Cuban exiles, as Secretary of State will be one of the most bitter pills that the Plaza de la Revolución will have to swallow.

With an absolutely unequivocal stance against the regime that has controlled the Island for 66 years, Rubio will be a tough obstacle on the international stage.

With an absolutely unequivocal stance against the regime that has controlled the island for 66 years, Rubio will be a tough obstacle on the international stage, where Havana has long experience in manipulation, buying loyalties or silence based on diplomatic favors, and presenting itself as a victimized David in the face of the disproportionate force of the Goliath of the North. The resentment of the new leader of the US State Department towards Nicolás Maduro will also have repercussions on the island, which is dependent not only on Venezuelan oil but also on the political support provided by the Miraflores Palace.

In a region where attempts at unity have been marked more by ideology than by the search for the well-being of its residents, a US administration more focused on Latin America could shake up the continent’s alliances and loyalties to a very large extent. The process of Havana’s loss of influence in this hemisphere, which has been ongoing for years, could accelerate starting this January. It is not surprising that some current allies of the Cuban regime prefer to rush to have their photo taken with Trump rather than to continue courting a failed and bankrupt system tied to the designs of the nonagenarian Raúl Castro.

The haste with which Trump cancelled Joe Biden’s decision to remove Cuba from the list of nations sponsoring terrorism seems to indicate that new penalties may rain down in the coming weeks. Within the Island, ordinary people are debating how to position themselves in the face of the pressure that is coming. The oldest remember that the dictatorship has shown signs of closing ranks and becoming more dangerous when cornered. Among those who are not yet graying, however, there is the illusion that the erosion of the model is so great that a push is enough to make it fall like a house of cards.

Nobody knows what will happen, but there is a new deck of cards on the table. More specifically, the cards on one side of the political battle are now different, while on the side of official Cuba they are the same worn-out scraps as always: repression, voluntarism and diplomatic hullabaloo.

________________________

Editor’s note: This article was originally  published in Deutsche Welle  in Spanish.

____________

COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORKThe 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.