14ymedio, Jorge Hernández Fonseca, Miami, 15 September 2020 — The world of the Cuban political opposition is full of many dissimilar figures, who seem more like a patchwork quilt than a screen ready for the projector. There has always been talk of the “necessary unity,” a thesis denied with such profusion of arguments among themselves, that no one in their right mind ventures to talk about it. However, the failure of such a union is no reason for opponents to attack each other mercilessly.
Today Castroism is defeated, ideologically and practically. Marxism does not work in Castro’s Cuba as it has not worked in any of the many countries where it has been established. However, the opposition is not an option to run the government in anyone’s eyes.
It is evident that Castroism is partly responsible for the critical situation of the opposition, because one of the government’s long-time strategies has been “divide and conquer,” a strategy that separates the opposition internally and externally and that has been particularly successful. Also the limelight, the fight for material resources and other detrimental characteristics of the human being, contribute to the fact that the long-awaited coordination between the opposition groups has not been possible.
The prospect presents contrasts, however, with the existence of young, brave, intelligent opponents willing to sacrifice to liberate the country from the iron dictatorship that has been imposed on them, who should have as a priority task coordination with their counterparts.
There are signs of discreet conversations between the Castro dictatorship and the United States, basically because Washington wants to solve the Venezuelan problem using “the good will” of the Cubans, the owners and lords of Chavista Venezuela. These conversations would also imply positive results for the Island, but there are no opponents capable of taking responsibility for running the Government, because their disputes could destabilize the State and give the drug traffickers the opportunity to assume power.
The model of drug trafficking societies that exists in much of Central America, starting with Mexico, would be very easy to introduce in Cuba with a weak and divided government, such as the one projected by the Cuban opposition, which lacks the strong leader that the United States needs to safeguard its coasts, after the Castro nightmare of these last years.
For a world power like the United States, which needs a stable Cuba above any other characteristic (including democracy), negotiation with an authoritarian government in Cuba — made up of sectors of current Castroism and leaving its armed forces intact — would be preferable to a democratic team on the island, made up of current weak and divided Cuban opponents, an easy target for the Central American and Mexican drug cartels.
Faced with this reality, Cuba’s own divided, unstable and uncoordinated political opposition — honest but divided — might not leave the US any alternative but to negotiate with the enemy.
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