The Cuban capital is the most affected by emigration, in addition to registering an infant mortality rate of 10.2 per thousand, the highest in the country.
14ymedio, Madrid, 23 May 2025 — That the mortality rate in Cuba is higher than the number of births is nothing new. The population growth been negative for years and there is no possibility of reversing it, given that the average age continues to rise. In 2024, it increased by two-tenths of a percentage point compared to the previous year nationwide, but the situation in the capital is particularly dire.
Havana recorded 27,864 deaths last year, approaching three times as many as births, which were 10,783. In total, the province ended December with 1,749,970 inhabitants, a total of 64,237 fewer than in 2023. Of this figure, 47,156 were due to emigration, according to data published this Friday by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).
As if that wasn’t bad enough, infant mortality also hit the capital hard, with 10.2 per thousand births, Havana leads the country with the saddest rate and drags the Island-wide figure down to the 7.1 announced at the beginning of this year, despite Sancti Spíritus achieving a commendable and surprising 3.6.
All provinces have high negative migration balances, both abroad and in total.
The figures, which appear in the report on demographic indicators for Cuba and its territories, confirm that the island closed 2024 with 9,748,007 inhabitants. However, a recent independent study reduced that figure to eight million, a total of 307,961 fewer than the previous year. Of these, 128,098 were deceased, while 251,221 were lost to emigration.
This is a well-known but worrying indicator, as all provinces show high negative migration rates, both abroad and overall. Havana, for example, once again stands out for its outward migration rate, with a rate of -36.1 per thousand (only Isla de la Juventud exceeds it, with -36.5). This figure is tempered by the share of migration that is to other provinces, leaving the capital with a total migration rate of -26.5 per thousand leaving the Island.
The opposite is true for the eastern provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantánamo, which have rates of only -16, -17, and -18 per thousand for emigrants leaving to go abroad, but their internal migration rates raise the figure to -22.4, -22.6, and -26.6, respectively. Overall, Isla de la Juventud, Camagüey, and Cienfuegos are the provinces with the largest emigrant populations, while Pinar del Río has the highest rate of citizen retention, despite having a migration rate of -20 per 1,000.
The figures for the increases in the mean and median ages are also rising. In 2023, it was 42.2 compared to 42.5 in 2024, while the median (the most common) has risen from 44.1 to 44.5. Although the difference seems minimal, it shows a constant increase, clearly due to the low birth rate and high emigration of people of working age. There is absolutely no province where the average age is less than 40 years, with Artemisa and Guantánamo being the youngest (both at 40.1) and Cienfuegos and Villa Clara the oldest, at 44.9 and 44.5 years, respectively.
In the eastern part of the island, fewer young people have the opportunity to emigrate due to the higher poverty rates.
Regarding the crude birth rate, Guantánamo again displays a double-edged sword: it has the highest number of births—9 per thousand—followed closely by Santiago de Cuba, with 8.9. This also reveals that fewer young people have the opportunity to emigrate, a result of the higher poverty rates in the eastern part of the island.
For its part, Havana is the province with the fewest births per thousand inhabitants, with 6 births per thousand. Sancti Spíritus and Cienfuegos follow, with 6.1 and 6.2, respectively.
Regarding overall mortality, the capital stands out again, reaching a rate of 15.6 per 1,000, presumably due to its aging population and despite having more and better healthcare facilities. Villa Clara, with 14.8, is close, while Guantánamo has only 9 deaths per thousand, a consequence of having a younger population.
Authorities have repeatedly lamented Cuba’s low birth rate, although they compare it with other developed societies and cite women’s emancipation as the underlying cause. However, in those other countries, in-migration cushions the population decline and aging. On the island, however, in-migration is almost nonexistent.
In the midst of a demographic disaster that worsens year after year, the government has yet to implement any measures capable of stemming the flow, and experts wonder how long the remaining social system in Cuba will be sustainable without new blood to feed it.
See also:
Cuba lost more than 300,000 Inhabitants
Cuba: Humanitarian crisis and ‘implosion’
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