If the U.S. does not intervene, it will be the first fuel delivery since January
14ymedio, Havana, March 29, 2026 – Russia has tested the pressure of the United States on energy supply to Cuba with the dispatch of the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, a ship loaded with crude oil heading toward the Island and whose arrival in Matanzas is scheduled for this Monday. The tanker carries about 730,000 barrels of crude and is this Sunday north of Haiti, just hours of sailing from the Cuban coast, according to maritime tracking data.
The vessel loaded at the Russian port of Primorsk on March 8. During its passage through the English Channel, the tanker was monitored by the Royal Navy while it was escorted by the Russian sloop Soobrazitelny. After that stretch, both vessels separated and the tanker continued alone toward the Atlantic and then toward the Caribbean.
The Anatoly Kolodkin appears on the sanctions list of OFAC (U.S. Treasury Department) since February 2024, linked to Sovcomflot, Russia’s largest state shipping company, and is also on the British list of sanctioned vessels.
The Havana refinery is an old and inefficient installation, “a relic of the industrial transformation system of Cupet”
The Cuban energy expert Jorge Piñón believes that, at this stage of the journey, a possible interception of the vessel by the United States is unlikely. “In my opinion it is already too late. I am not a military expert, but if there had been a confrontation with the U.S. Navy it would have been in Atlantic waters, with more room for political and naval maneuvers,” he told this newspaper.
For the researcher at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas at Austin, the central question is no longer whether the Anatoly Kolodkin will reach Cuba, but what the Government will do with the limited volume of fuel that could be obtained from that shipment. According to his estimate, from the 730,000 barrels of crude carried by the tanker, no more than 250,000 barrels of diesel could be derived, an amount insufficient to resolve the crisis but still relevant for deciding priorities.
Piñón notes that the Havana refinery is an old and inefficient facility, “a relic of Cupet’s industrial transformation system.” From there, he outlined two scenarios: that the State distributes that diesel among sectors considered critical—generator sets, transport, and agriculture—or that it keeps it as a reserve in case of a future political or military escalation.
“Will we be so naive as to think that the Government will not keep a significant amount of diesel for its own reserves, instead of supplying it to those who need it most for their livelihood?”
In any case, the expert adds, “the refining process will take between 15 and 20 days and another five to ten days will be needed to distribute the fuel.”
The approach of the Anatoly Kolodkin has been closely followed because, although it will not solve the crisis, it could offer partial and temporary relief.
The arrival of this shipment coincides with a critical stage for Cuba. The Island has not received oil since January—the last delivery of crude came from Mexico with the Ocean Mariner—an interruption that has worsened the energy crisis and made the country’s external dependence more visible. The lack of fuel has affected transportation, electricity generation, the distribution of goods, and the daily life of millions of people.
The fragility of the electrical system, which has gone years without adequate maintenance, has worsened as a result of the oil embargo decreed by the U.S. in January. Cuba has suffered seven nationwide blackouts since October 2024, including two in March of this year, a sequence that confirms the deterioration of the grid and the lack of backup capacity. Havana has tried to contain the impact with emergency measures. The Government has imposed dollar sales to the public and strict gasoline rationing; public transport has been reduced, and some services have been cut. In that context, the approach of the Anatoly Kolodkin has been closely watched because, although it will not resolve the crisis, it could provide partial and temporary relief.
The immediate backdrop to this operation is the breakdown of regular supply from Venezuela. Since January 3, Cuba lost its main regional oil benefactor, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S., and since then it has not received fuel from Caracas.
Although Mexico has maintained donations and humanitarian aid, it has not resumed shipments of oil or fuel to the Island
Mexico has not filled that gap either. Although it has maintained donations and humanitarian aid, with shipments of food, medicine, and other supplies, it has not resumed shipments of oil or fuel to the Island. Mexican caution comes amid threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on any country that sends oil to Cuba, a warning that has raised the political cost of any supply attempt.
Recent experience also shows that not all shipments manage to complete their route. The clearest precedent is that of the Sea Horse, a tanker flying the flag of Hong Kong (China) that was carrying about 200,000 barrels of diesel of Russian origin initially destined for Cuba. Faced with the risk of seizure by the U.S. Navy deployed in the Caribbean, the vessel changed course toward Trinidad and Tobago and finally appeared in Venezuelan waters after spending weeks adrift in the Atlantic. The case demonstrated how far Washington’s pressure can go in frustrating a shipment even when it is already underway.
If the Anatoly Kolodkin ultimately manages to dock and unload in Matanzas, or stops beforehand in the Bay of Nipe (Holguín) to transfer its cargo to the fleet of Cuban tankers, no one doubts that it will be the result of a decision made by the U.S. and that it will be presented as a humanitarian gesture.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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