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“In these moments, the actors of the dictatorship are unpredictable and dangerous.”

In her post , García Basulto believes that “they are really nervous” and “they don’t know what they’re doing.” She continues, “They’ve demonstrated this with their actions against the diplomat in question.” This was the first arrest “in more than five years” that the journalist has suffered , and she concludes: “In these moments, the actors of the dictatorship are unpredictable and dangerous. But as I always say, we are not afraid of them.”

The Cuban newspaper La Hora de Cuba reported details of Mario Junquer’s arrest: it also occurred around noon yesterday, as he was leaving the home of the newspaper’s director, Henry Constantín. The playwright was detained for two hours, though he has not provided any further details. In a Facebook reel, he posted a picture of himself with the words: “I’m free now. Well, not quite free yet. I’m home. Thanks to everyone. History will swallow them up.”

Constantin’s home, the newspaper he directs reported, has been surrounded since early Friday morning by patrols and motorcyclists of the National Revolutionary Police and plainclothes agents of State Security, “apparently to prevent any encounter between the journalist and his friends from Cuban civil society, and the head of the United States diplomatic mission in Cuba, Mike Hammer.”

Other activists from Camagüey were also harassed, such as actress Iris Mariño, deputy director of La Hora de Cuba. The media outlet also reports the arrest of a young man, whose name it does not give, “who apparently argued with Yoel Santiesteban, a government official who participated in the two acts of repudiation against Mike Hammer in front of the Santa María Hotel.”

The act of repudiation suffered by the diplomat, right in front of the place where he was staying, came to light through a video posted on the Facebook profile of a government supporter who only publishes official acts and commemorations on his wall.

“These threats came quickly, and I have been under surveillance and besieged since early this morning.”

Those involved were men and women who shouted “down with the blockade,” “puppets of Donald Trump,” “murderer,” “genocidal” and “bootlickers,” identical slogans to those used by the Cuban propaganda apparatus in acts of repudiation against opponents and dissidents.

Hammer, for his part, reported the incident on the US Embassy’s social media accounts with a smile, as usual, explaining that he had “insults shouted at him,” but stating that they were people who “belong to a certain party” and who “do not represent the Cuban people.”

At the time of that recording, Hammer was in the city of Trinidad, Sancti Spíritus, which is also part of his tour of the island these days, to “meet more ordinary Cubans.” In the central city, he met with Father José Conrado Rodríguez Alegre, one of the critical voices against the regime within the Church.

From Las Tunas, former political prisoner Taimir García Meriño also reported on Sunday the harassment by the political police, who had previously threatened her with “serious problems” if she received a visit from Hammer. “These threats came quickly, and I have been under surveillance and besieged since early this morning,” the opposition member denounced .

Similarly, State Security interrogated former political prisoner Ezequiel Morales Carmenate for several minutes in the city of Puerto Padre, Las Tunas province. Morales Carmenate had extended an invitation to the head of the U.S. mission to his home. In a video posted on social media, the activist reiterated his “open door” to Hammer, announcing to the regime: “I welcome whomever I want into my home.”

The U.S. Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs warned yesterday in X that “the illegitimate Cuban regime must immediately cease its repressive acts of sending individuals to interfere with the diplomatic work of Chargé d’Affaires Hammer and the Embassy staff. Our diplomats will continue to meet with the Cuban people, despite the regime’s failed intimidation tactics.”

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At the end of 2025, Mexico became the main supplier of oil to Cuba after the collapse of shipments from Venezuela.

Hours earlier, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that her government would seek “different alternatives” to support the Cuban people and warned that the measure could “trigger a far-reaching humanitarian crisis” on the island, impacting hospitals, food, and basic services.

Sheinbaum said she instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to contact the U.S. government to understand precisely the scope of the decree and raise the humanitarian risk, in line with Mexico’s historical stance of solidarity with Cuba.

Last Wednesday, Sheinbaum spoke by phone with her counterpart Trump, in a conversation of almost 40 minutes, which was described as cordial and productive.

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In that same message, the president emphasized the structural dependence of Castroism. “Cuba lived for many years off large quantities of oil and money from Venezuela… but not anymore,” he stated. The national economy was never self-sufficient and was sustained, first, by Soviet subsidies and, later, by Venezuelan support.

Trump insisted that the island is in a “very bad” situation because that flow of resources has been interrupted. The collapse of the Chavista model and international pressure on Caracas have drastically reduced the shipment of subsidized crude oil, exposing the fragility of the Cuban energy system .

The opacity of the Cuban government makes it impossible to know whether it is willing to negotiate or whether, once again, it will choose to cling to the rhetoric of resistance.

The US president also referred to Mexico, stating that Sheinbaum was “very good” and that he asked her to stop sending oil to Cuba. Although the Mexican government has insisted that its aid is based on “humanitarian” reasons, it has acknowledged diplomatic contacts with Washington and the search for “alternatives” to support the Cuban people without exposing itself to sanctions.

From Havana, Díaz-Canel called the measure “fascist” and denounced an alleged attempt to provoke a deliberate crisis. But this tactic sounds worn out once again. After more than six decades of invoking the “blockade” as the automatic explanation for all its failures, the regime has robbed the word of its power and credibility. Like the boy who cried wolf, now that the net is finally closing in, the alarm no longer has any international impact.

Blackouts have become the most evident symbol of the system’s failure. During peak demand, more than half the country is plunged into darkness. The government manages the shortages with “scheduled” power cuts that paralyze daily life and deepen social discontent, while continuing to blame the embargo for all the country’s problems and avoiding accountability for its own mismanagement.

Trump’s strategy is to use economic pressure to force a change in the regime’s behavior. The Cuban government’s opacity makes it impossible to know whether it is willing to negotiate or whether, once again, it will cling to the rhetoric of resistance, shifting the cost of the crisis onto the population rather than relinquish power or introduce real reforms.

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López Hernandez has not yet commented, although both are expected to give further explanations this Friday through the Cuba X Cuba platform.

One person who did speak out was Cuban economist and a friend of the professor, Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, who asked the judges to have the “courage” to definitively cancel the trial. “Annul this farce, which will be yet another stain of shame on the Cuban judicial system, as are all the sentences handed down by the courts that have tried those who have protested against a regime that keeps the country in misery and expects us all to accept it as if we were servants,” he wrote on social media.

The economist considers the behavior of the island’s judges “shameful,” stating that “they have abdicated their duty to administer justice. When they deliver injustice, they lose their very nature and the respect of the people, because they renounce their duty to submit to power.” De Miranda Parrondo also called for “the release of all political prisoners in Cuba.”

López Hernández and Pantoja reported that on the day of the events for which they are charged, both were victims of mistreatment. According to the professor’s testimony, they were trying to arrest her when the officer used a “martial arts technique,” causing her to fall and hit her head hard. The professor was later diagnosed with post-traumatic labyrinthitis, an inflammation of the inner ear that affects balance.

“The obvious intention is to involve me in a common, not political, process,” said López at the time, who was placed under house arrest.

Torres and Pantoja have received solidarity from friends, intellectuals and international human rights organizations, who are calling for an end to the coercive measures against freedom of expression and assembly.

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The figure announced by the state-owned company Unión Eléctrica marks a record within the scheme of scheduled outages.

For Saturday’s peak hours – the late afternoon and evening – the UNE (National Union of Electricity Companies) estimates a generation capacity of just 1,160 megawatts (MW), compared to a peak demand estimated at 3,040 MW. The deficit, the gap between available and required energy, will reach 1,880 MW, while the planned outages, that is, the amount that will be deliberately disconnected from the system, will reach 1,910 MW.

Behind these figures lies an exhausted thermoelectric system. Eight of the 16 operational generating units remain out of service due to breakdowns or maintenance. This source of generation, under normal conditions, provides around 40% of the country’s energy mix, so every failure has an immediate impact on supply.

Espinosa insisted that the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant would only be out of service for an estimated 96 hours. However, engineer Félix Estrada, director of the National Load Dispatch Center, was much less certain that the work would be completed within the announced timeframe, a caution that reflects the accumulated experience of delays and missed deadlines.

Meanwhile, the UNE has stopped publishing a key piece of data in its daily reports: the number of distributed generation plants—the generators—that are not operating due to a lack of fuel or lubricants. This omission makes it impossible to accurately measure the impact of the loss of Venezuelan oil, although the other indicators point to a sustained increase in the number of idled generators, reaching record levels.

The energy sector has suffered from decades of underfunding, lack of maintenance and absence of structural investment, all within a system controlled by the State since 1959, without transparency or accountability.

The increasingly widespread and frequently scheduled power outages are having a devastating effect on the economy, which has contracted by more than 15% since 2020, according to official figures. Power outages have also been a key factor in the social protests of recent years, directly impacting daily life, food production, and the functioning of essential services.

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Adding to this worrying situation is the low birth rate: last year ended with 3,108 fewer births than in 2024.

Just a month ago, at the end of 2025, the Ministry of Public Health announced a worrying increase in infant mortality in Cuba, which rose from 7.1 to 9.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in a single year—figures that already signaled the accelerating crisis across the country. In Havana, the figures skyrocketed from 10.2 at the end of 2024 to 14 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025, a jump that reflects an alarming trend. Since 2020, Havana has remained above the national average.

Adding to this worrying situation is the low birth rate: last year ended with 3,108 fewer births than in 2024, while the mass exodus that, according to Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos , has reduced the island’s population by 24% in just four years, is contributing to a shift in the country’s demographic structure. The island is gradually aging; more than a third of its inhabitants are over sixty, and young people represent a decreasing proportion of the Cuban population—they are the ones who emigrate the most—a reality that also influences the country’s social and health dynamics.

This unprecedented crisis is becoming increasingly impossible for the regime to conceal, a regime that until recently boasted of being a leader in healthcare in the region. In 2018, the country recorded an infant mortality rate of 3.9 per 1,000 live births, although several experts questioned the accuracy of this figure, which was by far the best in the Americas. In any case, the contrast with the 2025 figures highlights the brutal deterioration of the healthcare situation in less than a decade.

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The regime’s alliances have also failed to translate into economic stability or relief for an island facing its worst crisis.

The government reaffirms its commitment to “continue working with friendly countries,” alluding to Russia, China, and Iran, presented as geopolitical counterweights to Washington. But this alliance, more symbolic than effective, has also failed to translate into economic stability or relief for an island facing its worst crisis in the last three decades.

The official statement insists that the United States has failed in its attempt to “surrender and destroy” the Revolution for 67 years. However, the text omits a key question: what has the Cuban government itself achieved during that same period to guarantee prosperity, rights, and sustained well-being for its citizens?

The energy crisis, aggravated by the suspension of Venezuelan supplies and US pressure on Mexico, is presented exclusively as a consequence of the “blockade,” when in reality it is also the result of decades of mismanagement, lack of investment and centralized decisions that scare away capital and talent.

Even Havana’s traditional allies no longer hide their frustration with a state incapable of honoring its financial commitments or undertaking even minimal reforms to stabilize its exhausted economy. This is compounded by the apparent normalization of non-payment and an ever-increasing dependence on donations and political concessions, accepted as simply part of the system’s normal operation.

The regime presents itself as a “peaceful people,” open to dialogue, but it intensifies the mechanisms of internal repression.

Belligerent rhetoric is also accompanied by an increasingly bombastic tone. The words used to define the United States are designed for ideological mobilization, not for diplomacy or the resolution of real conflicts. And they reinforce the perception of a power trapped within its own narrative.

Meanwhile, official figures presented at recent party rallies paint a far less rosy picture, with a collapsed transportation system, industrial production well below projections, stagnant housing, and rising infant mortality. All of this, according to the official narrative, is being managed with more slogans and calls for resistance, but with no concrete solutions in sight.

The regime presents itself as a “peaceful people,” open to dialogue, but it intensifies internal repression, persecutes dissent, and maintains absolute control over political life. It calls for international “understanding” while denying fundamental rights within its borders. It speaks of popular sovereignty without allowing free elections or pluralism.

“Patria o Muerte” [Fatherland or Death] thus functions once again as a closing slogan, but not as a project for the future. A useful phrase for uniting the ruling elite and justifying inaction, but increasingly distant from an exhausted citizenry that demands not epic narratives but concrete solutions: electricity, food, medicine, transportation, and freedom.

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Cuba is among the countries most reluctant to accept the return of its own deported citizens.

There have been no official declarations from the Cuban government, no press releases, and no public explanations regarding the situation of these citizens. Nor have there been any visible efforts to expedite their return. The only known policy is the acceptance of a single monthly deportation flight from the United States, a number that Washington has unsuccessfully requested be increased, according to diplomatic sources cited by the newspaper. In fact, the flight scheduled for January should have departed yesterday—they always leave on the last Thursday of each month, unless it coincides with a US holiday—and it has not yet taken place.

The lack of gestures on the part of Havana has created a moment of heightened tension with the Trump administration, which, following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, has maintained intense pressure on the island, declaring it an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to its national security and foreign policy. According to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to the Times on condition of anonymity , the regime has continued to refuse to increase the frequency of repatriation flights.

According to Refugees International, Cuba is among the countries most reluctant to accept the return of its own deported citizens. “The Cuban government doesn’t want to receive them back,” confirmed Yael Schacher, an analyst with the organization, quoted by the NYT, noting that the current economic crisis—marked by blackouts, food shortages, and fuel scarcity—reinforces that posture.

The result is a limbo in which Cubans are trapped between two governments, with no clear rights or defined timelines. Some have managed to call relatives in the US, who in turn have informed family members on the island. On social media, wives and mothers have created support groups where rumors of release, messages of faith, and snippets of phone calls from the base circulate.

An order signed by President Trump in January 2025 instructed that the base be prepared to receive up to 30,000 deportees.

The immigration operation that brought them to Guantanamo originated from an order signed by President Trump in January 2025, instructing that the base be prepared to receive up to 30,000 deportees. A year later, the actual number is far from that target. According to the New York Times itself, some 780 people have passed through the base under this scheme, without the U.S. government having demonstrated that most of them had criminal records.

The cost of the operation is also not transparent. The Pentagon acknowledged to Congress that the first month cost $40 million. Since then, no official figures have been released. Democratic Senator Gary Peters, chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security, estimated that the cost of the operation could reach about $100,000 per day for each migrant detained at the base.

Tom Cartwright, an activist and migrant rights advocate who has monitored ICE flights for years, questioned the necessity of Guantanamo as a transit station for these deportations. In his view, the use of the base is not based on a real logistical need, but rather on a political decision.

Cartwright believes that the Cubans held in Guantanamo serve as a tool of pressure against Havana, in an attempt to force the Cuban government to accept more than one monthly repatriation flight, a demand that has so far been rejected.

Neither ICE nor the Department of Homeland Security has responded to questions from the Times about why these men are still there or when they will be transferred. Nor has the Havana regime.

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