Officialdom has failed in its attempt to disqualify the publication of informal exchange rates by El Toque
14ymedio, Madrid, November 10, 2025 — As expected by the specialists, after a few days of truce in which its price began a rapid fall from 490 pesos to 410, the dollar is back up strongly on the informal market. The new war waged by the government against El Toque, which publishes daily sales rates in the streets, is of little use. If this Saturday the dollar had already started to rise to 415; the next day it cost 420 pesos and, this Monday, 430 pesos.
The independent media itself never tires of illustrating how it extracts the information it offers, most recently this Sunday. Far from operating as a denunciation of the regime, which accuses it of “speculative manipulation” serving the US as part of an “integral program of destabilization” and “usurping” the task of the Central Bank of Cuba, El Toque, without referring to this smear campaign, explains that its exchange rate is based on advertisements and publications in networks collected daily and from responses by users.
This is exemplified by the data collected on Saturday and Sunday. In the first graph they report the “histogram of published offers” and explain: “Most offers are concentrated between 410 and 430 CUP/USD, with an average point of 420 CUP,” which “indicates that the majority of participants in the market coincide in this price range.” The average, 421.81 pesos, is slightly above the median (420 CUP), which suggests that some providers are starting to request higher prices. This slight difference may indicate upward pressures; that is, an increase in the dollar rate.”
Towards the end of October, a change in trend is observed: requests for purchase (demand) increase, and sales offers decrease (offer)
In a second graph, they present supply and demand aggregates, showing the evolution of the number of people interested in buying or selling dollars over time. The figures, insists the media, “are based on amounts declared by users in their messages.” But they clarify: “Not all offers include precise amounts; therefore, the values presented constitute a sub-record of the actual movement; that is to say, the detectable minimum of transaction intentions. As a result, the total market volume is likely to be much larger.”
And they conclude: “During the month of October, the volume of transactions remained relatively stable. However, towards the end of the month a change in trend was observed. There was an increase in purchase requests (demand) and a decrease in sales offers (supply). This imbalance –more people willing to buy and fewer to sell — usually anticipates increases in the dollar price if the trend continues.”
The article recalls that economist Pavel Vidal, head of the Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi), has also explained many times that movements in the informal exchange rate are given by the balance between supply and demand. “If the demand for dollars, euros or MLC (freely convertible currency) exceeds the supply — because many people or private enterprises seek foreign exchange to import, travel or protect their savings against inflation- the price of these currencies in Cuban pesos tends to rise. Conversely, if more people are willing to sell currencies than they are willing to buy — through increased remittances, tourism or a recent appreciation of the dollar- the rate may be lowered.” This is the basic law of supply and demand, which is practiced all over the world, except in Cuba, where the regime tries to ignore it without success.
It is also influenced by “expectations,” such as “rumors of new sanctions, announcements of regulatory changes for MSMEs, remittances or banking operations, as well as changes in monetary policy” and other factors, such as liquidity or financial regulations.
In the case of the drop that occurred last week, some experts associated with OMFi link it to the effects of Hurricane Melissa, specifically the sending of currency and donations to support the country and families.
In his report of last October, Pavel Vidal stated that the economic crisis on the island “has not yet hit rock bottom, and no possible exits are perceived in the short and medium term.” He ventured that the dollar could even exceed 500 pesos at the end of October, in an “extreme” scenario. Before the descent of the past days, it was close to reaching it.
Regardless of specific predictions, the scenario outlined by the Cuban economist, who resides in Colombia, for the unstoppable devaluation of the national currency remains valid. For example, there is the debacle of tourism, essential to foreign exchange earnings. Also, having cash is the only way to be able to buy in the dollarized stores, which are becoming more numerous. In addition, the energy crisis and the “very limited access” to inputs and financing negatively affect production, which increases the dependence on imports. “Mistrust in the future of the economy and the Government’s ability to face the crisis” causes capital flight and encourages the “accumulation of savings” in hard currencies.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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