Experts in New York argue that the U.S. could accept economic changes on the Island without an immediate replacement at the top of power.
14ymedio, Havana, March 28, 2026 – Donald Trump once again put Cuba at the center of his speech this Friday by stating in Miami: “Cuba is next.” The phrase came during a speech in which he praised the military capacity of the United States and its recent actions in Venezuela and Iran. Immediately afterward, the president tried to downplay it with an ambiguous remark: “But pretend I didn’t say it.”
Trump linked his comments to the worsening of the Cuban crisis and the deterioration of the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel, in a context in which Washington is holding talks with sectors of power in Havana to avoid a larger confrontation.
It is not the first time Trump has used that tone. Previously, he had said that his plans for Cuba involved a “friendly takeover,” although afterward the head of the United States Southern Command, Francis Donovan, told Congress that the U.S. military is not preparing for a takeover of the Island. Along the same lines, the Treasury secretary stated that a potential regime change in Cuba would be “in slow motion.”
That dual approach—bellicose tone in public and parallel contacts—coincides with the assessment presented this week by several experts in New York
The Cuban government itself eventually acknowledged, after repeatedly denying it, that talks with Washington do exist. Behind the rhetoric of confrontation, therefore, there is a line of political pressure that does not appear aimed solely at a direct clash. Trump’s ambiguity does not reduce the scope of his words. On the contrary, it leaves several scenarios open, ranging from a tightening of sanctions and economic coercion to a forced negotiation under extreme pressure.
That dual approach—bellicose tone in public and parallel contacts—coincides with the assessment presented this week by several experts in New York, at a forum organized by Americas Society and the Council of the Americas on the renewed interest of the White House in Latin America. There, Brian Winter, vice president of policy at both organizations, summarized the logic that, in his view, guides Washington’s policy toward Cuba: “Everything points to the U.S. prioritizing its stability and its national security, and that some kind of transition in Cuba’s economic policy could occur without necessarily implying a change at the top of power.”
Winter added that Cuba “has always had a unique importance for U.S. national security,” especially due to two factors: competition with other powers, such as China, and the impact of Cuban migration to U.S. territory. As he explained, around 20% of the Cuban population has emigrated in recent years, a figure that helps explain why the Island’s internal deterioration has also become a security issue for Washington.
Marco Rubio: “Any report about Cuba that does not come from the president or from me is a lie”
The forum also pointed to another key figure in this hardening: Marco Rubio. Winter stated: “I think it is fair to say that Secretary Rubio’s personal history influences U.S. policy.” But he immediately set a limit to that interpretation, warning that the White House’s intentions do not appear to be limited to an operation of political or family revenge against Cuban power. “If it were only about overthrowing the regime in Havana for family reasons, they would be adopting a different policy,” he commented.
For his part, the Secretary of State declared from France, at the end of the G7 meetings: “Any report about Cuba that does not come from the president or from me is a lie.” Rubio also repeated what he had already said days earlier from the Oval Office: “We have to change the people in charge, the system of the country, and the economic model they have. It is the only way Cuba can have a better future.”
The current Cuban crisis did not begin with Trump, nor can it be explained solely by U.S. sanctions. The Island has been burdened for years by unproductivity, centralization, reform paralysis, and political repression. The regime has been unable to offer a credible way out of the deterioration of basic services, food shortages, the transportation crisis, and blackouts, while keeping intact a control apparatus that blocks any real opening.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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