Between power vacuums and diplomatic maneuvers, the fate of the country hangs in the balance.
14ymedio, Federico Hernández Aguilar, San Salvador, January 22, 2026 -Reducing geopolitical threats to the US—that is, limiting the influence of Iran, China, and Russia (probably in that order)—is reason enough for someone like Donald Trump to order the removal of a dictator in South America. Nicolás Maduro was a prime candidate for a swift removal without the need for any military invasion. And that’s exactly what the Republican president did, removing the missing piece to better control the chessboard.
With the fall of Hugo Chávez’s successor, however, a whole new range of possibilities opens up. We already know that Trump lacks democratic credentials and even the slightest scruples to conceal this deficiency. We also know that his temperament is volatile, his ego colossal, and his thirst for power astounding. He has no qualms about saying what he thinks because he has never needed to think about what he says. His limits, as he himself has stated, depend on what he calls his “own morality,” an assertion that will surely be a topic of debate among psychotherapists and legal philosophers in the years to come.
But Donald Trump, like any politician lacking statesmanship, does have fears. He fears real challenges to his power. And he also possesses a keen sense for understanding when that power might truly be challenged. The midterm elections next November exert a real pressure on the president, because by then he must present tangible achievements on nearly every front his excesses have opened up.
But Donald Trump, like any politician lacking statesmanlike qualities, does have fears.
And it is precisely here that democracy in Venezuela can take root: in that small crack between unbearable narcissism and electoral realism. If figures like Marco Rubio have managed to push their boss down the path of a surgical and successful coup, they are now obligated to propose the long process of democratic restoration as a noble and lasting legacy. Not because Trump cares about Venezuelans, but because he cares about what posterity will say about him.
And a resounding failure in Bolívar’s land is not only now a possibility—not to mention a terrible legacy—but the rhetoric emanating from the White House has already made this harsh reality palpable for many observers, both within Venezuela and around the world. The time has come for the empty, boastful rhetoric to give way to pragmatism and skill, even for Trump’s own benefit.
Dismissing María Corina Machado as a key player in the Venezuelan transition was, as we now know, a political blunder and a childish emotional outburst (with a Nobel Prize to boot). However, as expected, someone finally told Trump that his tantrum would have consequences. Machado will have to return to Caracas and lead the reconstruction of her country, whether with the approval or the reluctance of the US president.
Long before that, it is true, the dangerous power vacuum left by Maduro must be filled. The remaining Chavistas, currently embodied by Delcy Rodríguez, are the necessary scapegoat for this purpose. Without someone like her, dismantling the oppressive structure in Venezuela would necessitate a military occupation in the short or medium term. And nobody wants that. Not even Trump; least of all his voters.
But restoring order in the barracks is very different from governing toward democracy. That task cannot be carried out by any figure from the fallen regime, among other things because none of them understand the meaning of the rule of law, separation of powers, or accountability. Whoever Washington negotiates with to oversee this period must know that their mission has an expiration date.
But restoring order in the barracks is very different from governing towards democracy.
Following the stabilization phase that will prevent the country’s collapse, the US will then have to provide on-the-ground protection and support to the legitimate opposition that defeated Maduro at the polls in July 2024, hopefully sooner rather than later. This support should be shared with other neighboring countries in the region. An overwhelming US presence is inadvisable.
Recognizing these fundamental conditions is the basis for a successful transition. If the US has truly chosen to guide the initial stability, with the promise of building the foundation for a full democracy, then Rodríguez’s role is merely instrumental, while Machado’s is essential. But until that happens, the Chavista past must now bear the risks of the necessary dismantling.
The release—not merely the release of political prisoners—is non-negotiable, as is the disarmament of the motorized armed groups under Diosdado Cabello’s command. Those who remain defiant must have their options limited: join the Colombian guerrillas on the border, attempt a futile internal military resistance, or go to prison. The important thing is that each remnant knows what they stand to gain if they challenge Delcy Rodríguez’s interim presidency.
At the same time, the opposition’s social base must receive the right messages, not more confusion. As Andrés Izarra, a former member of Chávez’s cabinet, wrote, “Trump’s triumph was taking Maduro out of the car while it was moving and getting in himself.” True. The problem is that not only has the car continued moving, but this vehicle—called Venezuela—has only one possible destination: democracy. Any other destination is a collision… and it will be fatal for whoever is on board, even if their last name is Trump.
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