In the transition to freedom and democracy, the White House should resist the temptation to undertake this task alone.

14ymedio, Federico Hernández Aguilar, San Salvador, February 13, 2026 – Faced with Cuba’s energy collapse and its foreseeable social consequences, practiclaly all analyses of the situation on the island agree on three very specific points: that Castroism is facing an crisis without precedents; that one should never underestimate, despite everything, the capacity of the regime to resist and reinvent itself, despite everything; and that, finally, it is impossible to predict what will happen after 67 years of dictatorship.
While largely agreeing with these preliminary deductions, it is worthwhile to risk some hypotheses that can contribute criteria and ideas to the public debate on Cuba and its future. Because the fundamental dilemma is not about setting an exact date for the death and burial of Castroism—whose political and economic model, de facto, expired several years ago after a long agony—but rather about trying to commit to a transitional alternative that enables democratic construction and minimizes the imaginable humanitarian impacts.
Cuba, to begin with, is not Venezuela. In Caracas, there weren’t enough compatriots willing to die alongside Nicolás Maduro: the vast majority of the dead were Cubans. On the island, there are indeed enough soldiers ready to sacrifice themselves, just as those who fell defending—at the last minute—Maduro, because they weren’t offering their lives for the Chavista dictator, but for an ideology instilled in them since childhood.
Cuba, to begin with, is not Venezuela. In Caracas, there weren’t enough compatriots willing to die alongside Nicolás Maduro: the vast majority of the dead were Cubans
These quasi-religious convictions have been fundamental to the maintenance of Castroism, and it is advisable to analyze them before undertaking any kind of military incursion into Cuba. The United States, on the other hand, even assuming it could orchestrate the regime’s implosion (through leaks and negotiations) with a popular uprising, would have to act quickly to limit the operational capacity of the official repressive apparatus. And that, while essential, is quite complicated. continue reading
While it is true that the charisma narrative of Castroism died with Fidel, the cohesion of the political and military elite has allowed for a level of control and surveillance unparalleled in Latin America. Dismantling this structure requires a high degree of lethality, delivered with agility and precision. Undoubtedly, the US possesses these capabilities, but exercising them on an island like Cuba could indefinitely delay decision-making. Meanwhile, tragically, citizens would be wondering what the difference would be between dying of hunger and going out into the street to be shot. It is impossible to write this without trembling fingers.
Regarding the transition to freedom and democracy, the White House should resist the temptation to undertake this task alone. Throughout the 20th century, ordinary Cubans didn’t speak of the aid the United States had given them in 1898 to achieve their independence; what they remembered was the Yankee occupation and the humiliating conditions imposed from Washington at the behest of Senator Orville Platt—hence the name of the famous 1901 Platt Amendment to the Cuban Constitution—which limited the island’s trade relations, forced it to cede portions of territory (such as Guantánamo), and exposed it to future interventions.
President Trump is likely unaware of this history, but his Secretary of State certainly is. Marco Rubio knows of Cuba’s tendency to view its large neighbor with suspicion, however much it now needs Cuba to shake off its tyranny. Washington, therefore, would be wise to lead a hemispheric alliance of nations willing to contribute, especially logistically and intellectually, to the arduous transition process in a country that has seen key figures killed, detained, or exiled. Chile, Argentina, El Salvador, and Paraguay, to name a few, are countries that have successfully transitioned from dictatorship or war to democracy. Requesting their collaboration would be an encouraging display of wisdom.
It would, therefore ,be in Washington’s best interest to take the lead in a hemispheric alliance of nations willing to contribute, especially logistically and intellectually, to the arduous transition process.
Meanwhile, clearly, the imposed president Miguel Díaz-Canel has asked Cubans, even though they’ve already suffered everything, to prepare to suffer even more. What are two hours of renewed calls for sacrifice to a guy who never stops eating exquisite food and using electric light bulbs?
Jorge Dalton, a prestigious documentary filmmaker and founder of the International Film School of San Antonio de los Baños, recently wrote on his social media: “I see officials giving sterile speeches and harangues, projecting a false pride that reminds me of that story about a man who is drowning in the sea and, with water already entering his mouth, instead of asking for help he shouts: What a beautiful Caribbean Sea I am swallowing!”
Castroism, in any case, has already been swallowed up by history. There was and will be no absolution for those who caused Cuban blood to flow—in torrents!—for a model that was incapable of recognizing its own demise.
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