14ymedio, Reinaldo Escobar, February 2, 2023 — The economic measures that were widely dubbed “el paquetazo“* — the package — were unpopular but necessary. Even from a coldly economic perspective, however, they seemed to be too little too late.
The recent dismissal of the economics minister, Alejandro Gil, indicates that the decision to postpone increases in the price of fuel and public transportation is not due solely to an alleged virus or because Cimex’ computer networks got hacked, as has been reported, but to a change in policy to the detriment of the package’s promoter.
As is common knowledge, major decisions cannot be made in Cuba before consultations with and approval from a trio of nonagenarians — Raúl Castro, Ramiro Valdés y José Ramón Machado — who hold the reins of power. Once they have signed off, then the politburo weighs in, followed by the Communist Party Central Committee and lastly the complacent legislature, at which point the Council of Ministers is only too happy to give its approval.
What could the triumvirate’s motivation be? This is almost impossible to know. They are driven by factors both biological and ideological, and by family commitments, about which we can only speculate. Where Gil ultimately ends up in the Cuban political hierarchy now that he is no longer economics minister is still unknown. This raises the question of whether he was fired or has “failed up” as those whose job performance is lacking yet who still manage to climb the ladder of power are jokingly described.
The nonagenarians may have calculated that, if the package’s measures took effect right now, the resulting social upheaval could occur before their ultimate biological hour of reckoning arrived
Perhaps Gil was too cautious and Cuba’s khaki-clad leaders needed a figure who could convey greater speed and toughness in implementing the measures. Or perhaps his name became too quickly associated in the public’s mind with an acceleration of economic reforms and this set off alarm bells in the older generation, whose hands still steer the ship of state.
Maybe this is just one round in a complex boxing match. This time, the almost hundred-year-old guardians of orthodoxy have won, ejecting a technocrat from the ring. He has been knocked out an apparatchik, but that does not rule out future fights. What has become clear is that the Cuban leadership no longer seems as rock solid as it once was. It cracks under pressure and sends the public an unfortunate message: uncertainty.
If this was a fight between anxious traditionalists and bureaucrats worried about economic asphyxiation — officials who were looking for small ways to preserve the system but ventilate it financially — the traditionalists have won. Gil’s departure may be celebrated, but it could be the worst news for Cuba’s short-term future. They used him as a scapegoat but that does not stop inflation, nor does it revalue the peso much less improve what is served on Cuban dining tables.
But if the obdurate traditionalists have won this round, we must know why.
The nonagenarians may have calculated that, if the package’s measures took effect right now, the resulting social upheaval could occur before their ultimate biological hour of reckoning arrived. Prolonging the agony of the country and its people in exchange for not having to pay in life for the consequences of a disaster for which they are completely responsible illustrates the depth of their selfishness.
Perhaps the settling of scores is not over. As the popular saying goes, “the goat that breaks the drum pays with its skin.” Especially if he is a scapegoat.
*Translator’s note: “Paquetazo” is basically ‘package’, but the ending ‘azo’, signifying a blow, adds a certain heft to it. (See “Maleconazo“) See also from Spanishtogo.app: “Paquetazo, a term used predominantly in Latin America, refers to a package of economic reforms implemented by the government that often includes a series of austerity measures. Over time, it has become a popular term among citizens to express discontent with these policies.”
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