Preventive evacuations have already begun in the Dominican Republic
14ymedio, Havana, October 21, 2025 — The Cuban Meteorological Institute (INSMET) confirmed this Tuesday at 11 a.m. the official formation of tropical storm Melissa over the Caribbean. INSMET recognizes that there is “great uncertainty” about its trajectory. According to Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 1, the system was organized during the early morning from an activated tropical wave and already shows signs of strengthening.
“During the last few hours, the tropical wave action over the central-eastern Caribbean Sea has become better organized, concentrating areas of heavy rain and electrical storms, and becoming tropical storm Melissa, the thirteenth of the current hurricane season, says the alert.
At that time, the eye of Melissa was located at 14.3 degrees north latitude and 71.7 degrees west longitude, which is about 480 kilometres south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
The storm has sustained maximum winds of 85 km/h, with higher gusts and a central pressure of 1,003 hectopascals. It is moving westward at 22 km/h, although, according to Cuban meteorologists, its speed will begin to slow during the day as it gradually turns northwestward.
Official meteorologists say they are keeping “a close eye on the evolution and trajectory of this system”
The report adds that in the coming days, Melissa will move slowly over the central Caribbean Sea, south of the Greater Antilles, and that oceanic and atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for its intensification, making the phenomenon “a potential danger for the region.”
However, the fact that the system moves slowly and remains for several days in the central Caribbean increases the possibility of it affecting directly or indirectly the eastern half of Cuba, as previously warned by the Provincial Meteorological Center of Ciego de Avila.
Official meteorologists say they are “keeping a close eye on the evolution and trajectory of this system,” and have announced that the next official announcement will be issued at 6:00 in the evening this Tuesday.
The Dominican Republic has already begun evacuations: “First responders are activating their contingency plans to the maximum,” said Juan Manuel Méndez, director of the Center for Emergency Operations (COE).
This means that “preventive evacuations have been initiated” in vulnerable areas, added Méndez at a press conference with the meteorological and emergency authorities. According to what was said at that meeting by the director of Civil Defense operations, Delfín Rodríguez, the country has shelters for 600,000 people.
International sources, like the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), agree that Melissa could intensify in the coming days, with an erratic or almost stationary pattern south of Jamaica and Haiti, and a possible shift to the northwest as a mid-level trough strengthens over the western Caribbean.
Although there is not yet a forecast that places the center of Melissa over the national territory, the specialists stress that the associated rains, waves and coastal tides could be felt in coming days in the provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma and Holguín.
Most models show that the system could be maintained in the central Caribbean for at least five days
In these regions, the structural vulnerability of rural dwellings and roads, together with problems accumulated from the lack of maintenance for dams, levees and drains, aggravates the risk.
International forecast models suggest that Melissa will move over very warm waters (between 30 and 31°C), with relatively weak wind shear, conditions that are conducive to further development. Most scenarios of the European model (ECMWF) and the American model (GFS) show that the system could be maintained in the central Caribbean for at least five days, with a gradual increase in intensity. Some forecasts warn that it could even reach hurricane status if it stays over the open sea long enough.
The NHC has warned that the indirect effects -tidal waves and heavy rains- will already be felt in the next 48 hours over Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba, while surf and riptides could spread to the northern coast of Cuba during the weekend.
The lack of resources to repair roofs, reinforce housing and secure crops puts pressure on communities that face hurricanes every year with deteriorated infrastructure and few alternatives.
The experience of previous hurricanes in October -such as Sandy (2012) and Matthew (2016)- reminds us that tropical systems at this time are often treacherous. They advance slowly, discharge prolonged rains and cause more damage by flooding than by wind. Therefore, specialists recommend activating preventive measures now, even if the storm still remains far from the Island.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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