- This is the response to speculation of someone familiar with the island’s military about alleged Pentagon plans.
- Russia and China reiterate their support for Havana, but Moscow merely states that it “would not want any country to invade Cuba”
14ymedio Madrid, 16 April 2026 — The Pentagon has slightly cooled the speculation that arose from the USA Today report that the agency “is quietly intensifying its military plans for a possible operation in Cuba in case President Donald Trump gives the order to intervene.”
“We will not speculate on hypothetical scenarios. The Department plans for various contingency scenarios and remains prepared to execute the President’s orders as directed,” was the response to questions from the Russian news agency Ria Novosti. This statement is more cautious than the one offered by USA Today when it sought clarification on the alleged plan revealed by two sources to the publication, although there was an addition.
The Pentagon added that a chain of command keeps it “isolated” from the president, a statement interpreted as a call to separate political pronouncements from technical and operational decisions. While the final decision rests with President Donald Trump, the department ultimately confirms that all options are on the table.
“At this moment, it is more about a communication strategy.”
The idea is basically the same as that put forward in the USA Today article by Brian Fonseca, director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, who was interviewed for the occasion as an expert on the Cuban military. When asked by the publication, Fonseca opined that talk of preparing military plans could simply be a threat: “At this moment, it’s more of a communications strategy.”
The specialist emphasized something already known: that the Cuban Army’s material resources are very limited and its personnel are not highly motivated. However, he believes the consequences of the intervention would not be very favorable. “This would be a very easy military victory, but a much more difficult political one,” he opined. In his view, “restoring the rule of law and supporting the opposition leaders would be a much more complex task.”
The USA Today article reveals nothing new. Since the US intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2016, to capture Nicolás Maduro, it has been expected to repeat the same tactic in Cuba, based on Trump’s own repeated statements. However, the diplomatic route remains on the table, and the talks between the State Department and Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as ” El Cangrejo” (The Crab ), revealed by the US press, are considered a certainty.
What remains unknown is whether these talks will succeed, since in recent weeks Miguel Díaz-Canel himself, who in mid-March confirmed discussions with the US government, has fueled militaristic rhetoric. In two interviews with US media outlets, the Cuban president has insisted that he will not resign—one of the most widely discussed options, to make way for a successor more to Washington’s liking, such as Óscar Pérez-Oliva, the current deputy prime minister and a member of the Castro family—and that the regime will resist until death, if necessary.
This Wednesday, Beijing and Moscow again offered their verbal support to Havana, although materially it is unthinkable that the material support will go from solar panels and oil to military aid.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a press conference that Beijing “firmly opposes” Washington’s coercive practices and reiterated that China “will firmly support Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and opposing foreign interference,” a message that is repeated almost identically on a daily basis.
This Wednesday, Beijing and Moscow again offered their verbal support to Havana, although materially it is unthinkable that the material support will go from solar panels and oil to military aid.
Regarding Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with India Today that Russia “would not want any country to invade Cuba.” “Cuba is an exceptional partner of Russia, our good friend. And we would not like to see any country invading Cuba, or pressuring Cuba, or isolating it from the outside, preventing medicine from reaching Cuban children,” he said.
“Children in hospitals are dying without electricity or medicine. This is not right,” he insisted. The spokesman, however, downplayed Trump’s statements about Cuba, saying that the president “is extremely open with the press and very detailed in his explanations.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed this sentiment when asked about the same situation. “I don’t intend to play the fortune teller because we’ve often heard statements from Washington, and many of these never materialized into practical actions,” he noted.
The Foreign Minister noted that Russia has repeatedly reaffirmed its “firm support for the sovereignty and independence of our Cuban friends, who are prepared to defend their freedom to the end, with all the resources at their disposal.”
“Russia and China provide Cuba with political, economic, and humanitarian support in the United Nations and other forums, and I have no doubt that we will continue to provide that support,” he added, without mentioning at any point the possibility that the aid could go further, a possibility ruled out after the zero military cooperation with Venezuela and Iran.
Lavrov also said he remained hopeful that “the United States will not return to the times of direct colonial wars or the subjugation of free peoples.”
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