14ymedio, Madrid, 4 September 2024 — The data of the collapse of the population in Cuba does not give a break. Almost two months after it became known that at the end of 2023 there were 10,055,968 residents on the Island, detailed statistics reveal that Havana lost 15% of its inhabitants in three years and already has fewer than two million residents, a figure it hasn’t had since at least the 1990s. In addition, the other two provinces that exceeded one million inhabitants in 2020, Santiago de Cuba and Holguín, no longer reach that number.
The detailed figures appear in the report “Demographic Indicators of Cuba and its Territories,” whose general features were presented in August by the National Bureau of Statistics and Information (Onei) and were published in full this Tuesday on the institution’s website. In the absence of the repeatedly postponed census, Onei experts proposed a model to approach the “effective population” that is based on the accumulation of at least 180 days of stay in the national territory, both for newborns, deceased and, most importantly, migrants.
The result could not be more discouraging. Each and every one of the Cuban municipalities lost population between the end of 2020 and the end of 2023, bringing the total number of residents on the Island to figures that have not been seen since 1983, when Cuba reached 9,984,591. A year later, it already had 9,571 more inhabitants than at the end of last year.
Each and every one of the Cuban municipalities lost population between the end of 2020 and the end of 2023
In detail, the general panorama confirms that the western provinces lost the highest percentage of population compared to the eastern ones, predictably because the purchasing power – very necessary to emigrate – is lower in the latter. This means that there are fewer family members and acquaintances abroad, decreasing contacts for leaving and the possibilities of obtaining the required sponsorship from family members in the United States to qualify for humanitarian parole.
Despite this, the decline in population is not a minor thing. Between the dates compared (from the end of 2020 to 2023, although there are data corresponding to each of the intermediate years), Guantánamo lost 5.3% of its population, going from 505,606 to 478,328 inhabitants, the province with the smallest decrease. It is closely followed by Santiago de Cuba, falling from 1,045,631 to 988,655. The decrease is 5.4%, although the fall to less than one million inhabitants has a strong symbolic effect.
The same thing happens with Holguín, which is in fourth position; Granma, with 6%, has the third smallest loss of population; Las Tunas lost 8.1%, and it loses its quality of a province with more than one million residents (1,021,591 in 2020) and remains at only 938,744.
The special municipality of Isla de la Juventud, which at the end of 2020 had a small population of 83,625, has lost 8.9% of its population in these three years, ending up with 76,154 residents.
The middle area of the table, with a population loss of 9.2% and 9.5% respectively, is occupied by the westernmost provinces, Pinar del Río and Artemisa, which currently have around 500,000 inhabitants.
Meanwhile, the group of central provinces loses about 10% of its population. Among them are Camagüey and Matanzas (10.9%) and Villa Clara (11.5%)), which, to a greater or lesser extent, exceeded 700,000 in 2020 and is now well below that figure. Sancti Spíritus (10.3%), Ciego de Ávila (10.4%) and Mayabeque (11.1%) range from 415,714 for the first to 341,568 for the latter. Cienfuegos, which fell from 406,244 to 356,641 residents, is the second Cuban province that has suffered the most demographically.
But nothing compares to Havana, which went from 2,132,183 at the end of 2020 to 1,814,207 three years later, a loss of 15.3%. To put it into perspective, the population of Ukraine fell by 16.6% between 2022 and 2024 as a result of a brutal war. In Havana, the average loss in each municipality is about 20,000 inhabitants, except for those with the smallest number of residents (Old Havana, Regla and Cotorro).
In 2020, the average age of Cubans was 41.4, compared to the current 42.2, while the most common age has risen from 42.8 to 44.1
The analysis of the Onei includes, also with year-to-year tables by municipality, the demographic rates, with the data of births and deaths, which have a much smaller impact than emigration in the final balance sheet. In addition, figures of internal migrations appear, as well as the few foreign immigrants who arrived on the Island in recent years.
Another table gives the distribution of urban and rural population in each of the provinces and municipalities as well, while the last one has the data disaggregated by sex. The last tables of the document are dedicated to analyzing the average age of the population, as well as the median.
As expected, since emigration is higher among young people, the population has aged in these three years. In 2020, the average age of Cubans was 41.4, compared to the current 42.2, while the most common age has risen from 42.8 to 44.1.
Translated by Regina Anavy
____________
COLLABORATE WITH OUR WORK: The 14ymedio team is committed to practicing serious journalism that reflects Cuba’s reality in all its depth. Thank you for joining us on this long journey. We invite you to continue supporting us by becoming a member of 14ymedio now. Together we can continue transforming journalism in Cuba.
