Maduro’s campaign presents polls to counter the pro-opposition surveys
14ymedio, Madrid, 25 July 2024 — The Cuban state press has rushed to shore up the disinformation campaign launched in Venezuela by the Chavista hosts to try to make people believe that Nicolás Maduro will win next Sunday’s elections. Faced with independent polls, which show the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, a clear winner, the Venezuelan Government has been airing its own polls for days that grant victory by a wide margin to the current president.
According to the government Center for Measurement and Interpretation of Statistical Data, reproduced by Cubadebate on July 20, Maduro has a “very high probability of winning with 53% of the votes.” The electoral results “are not polarized,” and participation “does not exceed 65%.”
The numbers are opposite to those shown by the most recent calculation of the Center for Political and Government Studies of the Catholic University Andrés Bello and the pollster Delphos, who estimated that González Urrutia would obtain approximately 4.9 million votes and Nicolás Maduro 2.9 million votes. In “any of the scenarios,” of high or moderate participation, these independent institutions said, there is “a difference ranging from 20% to 34% in favor of the opposition.”
Even more forceful was a survey published in May by Datincorp, considered the most reliable survey company in the country, which gave González Urrutia 62% support, compared to only 20% for Maduro. This pollster also highlighted an overwhelming participation of 75%.
The Chavista campaign does not only present its own polls but also tries to discredit the independent polls
The Chavista campaign does not present its own polls but also tries to discredit the independent polls. Thus, they talk about “fake surveys,” as in an article in the Mexican newspaper La Jornada, also reproduced by Cubadebate this Tuesday.
“It’s a mathematical market for experts using diverse methods, almost always attached to unsustainable syllogisms for illusionist operations. The problem is not the surveys (if they are scientific), but the ambushes of fallacies that they serve, knowingly or not. Since they no longer have ideas, they believe that they still have the numbers, and they manipulate them,” says the cryptic article, without providing supporting data.
In Venezuela, the mood on the street is torn between the hope of an opposition victory and the pessimism over Chavismo fraud, or that the Government will not recognize the results if they are flagrantly unfavorable, or that even, as Maduro recently threatened, there will “a bloodbath” if he loses. If there are protests, another unknown is what part the Armed Forces will play. For 25 years it has closed ranks with the Government, but like the majority of the population, it may feel optimistic.
Edmundo González Urrutia, 74, is a retired diplomat with a long career. He has repeated many times that he would never have expected to be a presidential candidate, but today the appreciation that the majority of Venezuelans profess for him is undeniable. Appointed by the Democratic United Platform (PUD) instead of María Corina Machado, the initial candidate and disabled by Maduro, “Egu,”as his supporters call him, has impacted the campaign with his relaxed manner and his brief but forceful speeches.
His image is not on any propaganda poster, unlike Maduro’s
González Urrutia has promised to improve deficient basic services, such as electricity, water, education and health, but he has essentially focused on the reconstruction of the institution of President and on reconciliation between Venezuelans. Likewise, he has emphasized dialogue, stating that he is willing to talk to anyone, even if they are representatives of Chavismo.
His image, curiously, is not on any propaganda poster, unlike Maduro’s, which floods every corner.
The efforts of the current president in the “marathon” of closing the campaign are considerable. Videos broadcast on social networks show some soulless rallies, with people passing by indifferently next to the screens where you can see and hear the president screaming. Jorge Rodríguez, head of the so-called “Comando de Campaña Venezuela Nuestra” and brother of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, announced “mass acts” these days before the elections. Among them, a “motorized caravan” with more than 60,000 will perform “activities of agitation and will march throughout Caracas.”
In recent weeks, the resemblance of Maduro’s campaign to that of Daniel Ortega in 1990 in Nicaragua is surprising
In recent weeks, the resemblance of Maduro’s campaign to that of Daniel Ortega in 1990 in Nicaragua is surprising. He was called ‘el gallo enavajado‘ — the fighting rooster. Maduro uses a similar image, ‘el gallo pinto’. And in the images that allude to a “loving” candidate shown hugging children, with optimistic mottos (“The worst has already happened, we are recovering. With Maduro everything will be better” vs. “We will win and go ahead! Daniel, president. Everything will be better!!!”).
In both cases, the opponent – disqualified in the case of Venezuela – was a woman. In those Nicaraguan elections, Violeta Chamorro beat Ortega with almost 55% of the votes. Venezuelans hope that both campaigns will also be similar in that regard.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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