14ymedio, Reinaldo Escobar, Havana, 25 April 2021 — When an event breaks the well-known laws of nature or the dubious laws of history, it is usually described as a miracle. It is not enough that it is inexplicable, it must also have a favorable consequence.
This gives the impression that from the two political poles of Cuba only the realization of a miraculous event could avoid a presumed national catastrophe.
The government sector dreams of an improvement in relations with the United States that will ease restrictions and eliminate sanctions; places its hopes on a return of Lula to power in Brazil, which will serve to save the Maduro government in Venezuela; and has faith that its vaccines will be able to be sold all over the world. If they weren’t such (supposedly) atheists they would dedicate their prayers, their spells, to the fulfillment of these prodigious events.
Capriciously settled in their positions, those in power have closed every possibility of dialogue; what’s more, they have managed to make this option perceived as an immorality from those who propose it on the opposing side. They have closed the doors to reformist tendencies in the economy by proclaiming that the private exercise of professions and the importation of goods for internal trade in the hands of individuals “would lead to strategic errors and the very destruction of socialism and therefore of national sovereignty and independence.”
On the other hand, less monolithic, those who aspire to a profound change that will once and for all abandon “the construction of socialism,” know that the predictions that the Eighth Congress of the Communist Party could produce a turning point from above were excessively optimistic. They had the illusion that “now they are going to authorize SMEs [small and medium size enterprises].” On the contrary, they saw how the state business system was enshrined as the dominant form of management in the economy. The youngest, who believed they had found ways to disagree that would not lead them to be classified as mercenaries, were suddenly accused of attempting a soft coup.
In light of the confirmed limits to the economy and the shielding of ideological intolerance that sustains the criminalization of disagreement, the only thing left to do is to submissively bend, escape from the Island or bear the consequences of rebellion.
Those who rule Cuba are betting on massive meekness and believe they can profit from a new migration crisis*.
Those who do not agree with the policy outlined by the dictatorship and refuse to feign obedience or emigrate are being left with the possibility of a social explosion as the only way out. It could also happen that the archangel Michael comes down from heaven with his righteous sword.
Translator’s note: Profit from a migration crisis would come in the form of remittances sent back to family in Cuba. In 2019 it was estimated that remittances – 90% from the US – represented about half of all family income in Cuba.
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