With the support of some left-wing governments, Chavismo is looking for alternatives to preserve power
14ymedio, Havana, August 5, 2024 — Cornered by international discredit and the civic advance of the opposition, the next move of Chavismo to guarantee its survival is the subject of dozens of theories, opinions and rumors. The approach to the possible annulment of the electoral results by the regime is – in the words of the former president of Colombia, Iván Duque – one of the most widespread and “dangerous” hypotheses.
“There is talk that the Supreme Court of Venezuela is considering the possibility of declaring the elections null and void, given that the data could have been corrupted due to the ’cyber attack’ that Maduro uses as a smokescreen,” the Colombian politician said on Monday on X. The alleged hacking of the database of the National Electoral Committee (CNE), he said, could be a pretext for Maduro to seek an advantage.
The theory is not only “possible” but also “strategic” for the regime of Nicolás Maduro, says Duque, who describes step by step the possible development of this plan to stay in power.
First, the Supreme Court would set the scene by asking the CNE for evidence of the cyber attack, and it would get the evidence by paying companies specializing in digital security, the former president theorizes. “Money buys almost everything,” so “getting a forensic technical report on cybersecurity from a company like this would not be difficult for them.”
First, the Supreme Court would set the scene by asking the CNE for evidence of the cyber attack
With the evidence in hand, the Court could declare the voting records corrupt and “disavow” Maduro as president, creating at the same time an alibi for the CNE authorities, who declared the dictator president-elect by relying on manipulated and false information.
This will allow Maduro to come out of his corner and reorganize his forces. They will have a period of four months to correct all the flaws, shield the system and guarantee his triumph in December,” explains Duque, who adds that the regime could amplify its margin of victory by ordering the release of the detainees during last week’s protests – “which would give a social relief” – and by promising guarantees to the opposition.
“Freezing ” the situation, as the Colombian calls this strategy, would also eliminate the “reasons to protest” and clear the image of the dictatorship before part of the international community by converting “fraud” into “error.”
Duque also pointed out that his successor in the presidency of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, could be the one who negotiates – “to help Maduro” – the annulment of the elections in Venezuela, supported by other allies in the region. “Mexico and Brazil are being sought to do the same,” he said.
“Freezing” the situation, as the Colombian calls this strategy, would also eliminate the “reasons to protest”
According to an interview in El Tiempo newspaper with a source in the Colombian government, “Petro is aware that Maduro lost the election and that what Chavismo did delegitimizes it. Therefore, Colombia wants to give them a way out and generate confidence for a peaceful transition.” The official also denied that Colombia supports a cancellation of the elections: “There has been talk of even repeating the elections, but Colombia does not entirely agree because they will lose again, and that would encourage a greater escalation of the conflict.”
Other possible scenarios, based on the alliances of Chavismo in the region, include the removal of repression to avoid more complaints and let the storm pass, an escalation of violence or a dictatorship without Maduro – a “fraudulent change” – that could facilitate both Havana and the Puebla Group.*
According to the information from more than 24,000 tally sheets with 80% of the votes counted, published by the coalition of opposition parties on its website, Edmundo González Urrutia from the Democratic United Platform (PUD) won with 67% of the votes, and Maduro remained at 30%.
The data have been validated by several governments and dozens of independent and foreign media. Some experts, such as the Spaniard Kiko Llaneras, have published graphs and maps showing the forceful victory of the opposition in all the states of the country from the voting records, which include the signatures of witnesses and poll workers, among other data that support the veracity of the documentation.
*Translator’s note: The Puebla Group was founded in 2019 to unite left-leaning parties and leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean. It denounces U.S. “imperialism” and sanctions and calls for “de-dollarizing” the economy.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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