The maximum, with 11.3 million inhabitants, occurred in 2012, while at the end of the century there will be 5.5 million.
14ymedio, Madrid, July 15, 2024 — Cuba is one of the countries that shows the most negative population statistics in the UN demographic perspectives report. The document, prepared with a database that goes from 1950 to 2100, indicates that the Island reached its peak population in 2012, when it had 11,303,175 inhabitants. When the 21st century ends, the projection indicates that there will be only 5,577,280, 50% less.
The fall in population will not be an exclusive phenomenon of Cuba, although its situation is extraordinary. The report reflects that in 2080, the planet will reach its maximum level with 10.3 billion people, and then over the next twenty years there will be a decline of 6%, since in 2100 there will be 9.6 billion inhabitants, according to the document, entitled “World Population Outlook 2024” and prepared by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
In general, the fall is attributed to a lower fertility rate in the large world economies. This is the case of several nations that are currently in the group of the ultra-low fertility rate; fewer than 1.4 births per woman. Cuba barely escapes that group, since currently this figure stands at 1.44. However, everything indicates that the blow to the Cuban population is not because of this.
In general, the fall is attributed to a lower fertility rate in the large world economies
Spain is in that segment, with a fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman. Although the UN estimates that it will rise slightly to 1.38, its population, which is currently 47.9 million, will fall to 32.1 million people in 2100, a sharp decrease of 33%, much lower than that of the Island, so the causes point more to migration.
According to UN forecasts, of the 5.5 million Cubans that there will be in 2100, 2.8 will be men and 2.7 women, with an average age of 54.9 years, which indicates a notable aging of the population. There would be 410 Cubans over 60 years old for every 100 Cubans over 14 years, compared to the current 157. Meanwhile, the population growth rate, which today is -3.5, in 2100 will be -10.8.
In addition, the mortality rate will be 17 per 1,000 inhabitants, with 95,000 annual deaths, compared to 38,000 births. The age of life expectancy increases significantly, up to 88 years compared to the current 78, but at the same time it reflects a decrease in the percentage of women of childbearing age, which falls another 10 points from the current 41% to 31%.
Li Junhua, Undersecretary General of Economic and Social Affairs, believes that the population data provided by the report are positive in general and that a decrease in the population not only reflects a higher level of development, but will have an impact on “a lower ecological pressure of human impact due to a lower aggregate consumption.”
A decrease in the population not only reflects a higher level of development, but will have an impact on “a lower ecological pressure of human impact due to a lower aggregate consumption”
The report indicates that the population “peak” has been reached in 63 countries – Cuba among them, although most are from the so-called ’”developed world.” China, Germany, Russia and Japan stand out; in that group, a net population reduction of 14% is expected.
There is another segment of countries, with Brazil and Iran in the lead, where the peak will occur between now and 2054; finally, in the remaining 126 countries, that peak will not arrive until the second half of the century.
In this last group of countries, which will continue to grow in population for decades, are India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and the United States, predictably due to immigration in the latter case.
In 50 countries of the world, it will be emigration that will attenuate the effects of a declining and increasingly older population. The arrival of emigrants will increase the birth rate and slightly rejuvenate the average age of the population
At the end of the 2070s, there will be more people in the world over 65 years of age than under 18, and a greater number of elderly people (over 80) than infants under one year of age.
In 50 countries of the world, emigration will mitigate the effects of a declining and increasingly older population
All these forecasts can, however, change significantly. The COVID-19 pandemic was a factor that significantly modified the demographic data, for example, with an increase in the mortality rate.
In addition, in Cuba, mass migration may, in fact, have already changed the figures. The UN puts the Island’s population at 11 million at the moment, although it is almost certain that the number of residents has decreased. The data is kept hidden by the delay of the census that the Government should have prepared in 2022 and postponed due to the economic crisis.
The new tentative date for its realization is in 2025. However, an independent study by Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos that came to light a few weeks ago affirms that the population of Cuba fell by 18% between 2022 and 2023 and is currently 8.62 million.
Translated by Regina Anavy
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