Politicians are dithering, companies are just out to make money, and ordinary people are becoming increasingly polarized on social media
14ymedio, Yunior Garcia Aguiler, Madrid, 12 September 2024 / Latin America suffered several dictatorships during the 20th century. One of the declared aims of these regimes was to stop the advance of communism in the region, to curb the influence of the USSR and Cuba, its spearhead in the region. These regimes were defeated in the streets, at the ballot box or by transitions they themselves permitted. But the trail of blood they left only managed to fuel resentment against right-wing ideologies and incubate a left-wing mystique that would later be exploited by populist leaders. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Fukuyama spoke of “The End of History.” It seemed that liberal democracy had definitely triumphed. However, it was not yet the end.
The Cuban regime was left as a lost cause against which it was not worth using too much force or giving the final blow. It would disappear on its own, like a dying dog, or it would be forced to transform itself. Pushing it to adopt open-minded recipes should have the same effect as in Eastern Europe. However, they underestimated the ability of the regime to take advantage of misery to its advantage, to victimize itself, to make the citizens more dependent on its crumbs, to awaken new sympathies in the world and to wait in ambush for the opportune moment to expand, once again, its influence.
Today, at the end of the first quarter of the new century, there are three dictatorships of pure Castro style in Latin America and a handful of pseudo-democracies that prop up these regimes and flirt with authoritarianism. Today’s dictatorships have noted all the errors of their predecessors and have a new manual that is proof against ballot boxes, social upheavals and transitions. Nor is the world is the same as it was in the 1990s.
Contrary to what some people expect with a pang of nostalgia, the US is not going to intervene in the region, neither with Kamala nor with Trump in the White House
Paradoxically, China was one of the countries that benefited most from neoliberal globalization. The red giant became a super-capitalist power without giving up ideological ground. And Putin’s Russia, for its part, played the “let’s make Russia great again” game. While this was happening, the American middle classes were affected when large companies migrated to countries with cheap labor. This created a perfect breeding ground for ultra-nationalist ideas, the resurgence of anti-immigrant sentiments and the need for a strong leader focused on domestic issues.
The American superpower is in full decline, threatened by its internal fissures and oriented externally towards its main enemy: China. This has caused it to divert its attention from Latin America and delegate leadership to countries such as Mexico and Brazil, today governed by the left. Contrary to what some expect, with a pang of nostalgia, the United States is not going to intervene in the region, not with Kamala and not with Trump in the White House.
Aware of the world we live in, Nicolás Maduro commits the biggest fraud in history to stay in power, forces the elected president into exile, represses and harasses the opposition… and nothing happens. Daniel Ortega, for his part, makes and unmakes in the most crude way in Nicaragua, crushing the most basic rights… and there he remains. Miguel Díaz-Canel, in Cuba, imprisons and exiles dissidents, takes the economic and social crisis to inhuman levels… nobody cares anymore. There they are, without ballot boxes, but with weapons; without rights for all, but with totalitarian laws; without civil society, but with docile institutions and yielding to their whims.
There they are, without ballot boxes, but with weapons; without rights for all, but with totalitarian laws; without civil society, but with docile institutions and yielding to their whims
It is the perfect world for these shameless dictators. Who is affected by a couple of sanctions, as long as the BRICS provide them with relief in a timely manner? What good are four denunciations and strong declarations at international summits, if in the end they are a dead letter? What does it matter what the European press says, if their governments play at extreme caution, without even daring to call the dictatorships by their name?
People suffering under these dictatorships have only three options: to revolt, to flee or to bow their heads. The last option is ideal for perpetuating the dictators and forcing the population to resign itself to material and human misery. The second is a problem for countries with solid democracies, where waves of migration are causing more and more discontent among their own voters. And the first option represents a sure grave or prison for those who dare to take it.
Parallel to all this, there is the issue of social media. A priori, it is a tremendously effective tool for denouncing abuses and mobilizing the population. But it also has its dark side. News oversaturation tends to normalize a problem, whatever it may be, turning information into noise. People can follow a crisis closely for a couple of months, but then they get fed up and feel the trivial need to turn the page and focus on the next crisis, as if real life were a streaming platform where we click on the next entertainment show. Opinions, on the other hand, do not come only from experts or well-informed people. It is common for stupidity to dominate the forums, replacing arguments with slogans, ideas with insults and concrete proposals with empty cries.
It is common for stupidity to dominate the forums, replacing arguments with slogans, ideas with insults and concrete proposals with empty cries
No one is surprised that the man who defeated Maduro in a landslide at the polls had to flee the country where his integrity was threatened. But it is also not surprising that the masses accustomed to Marvel and DC are quickly disappointed if they do not see superhuman powers in the hero. There are already attacks on the networks against Edmundo González, for the sin of still being alive. Contrary to what the masses accustomed to Netflix series think, the dead do not change regimes, the living do. When I hear María Corina Machado say “this is until the end,” I never expect that the end will be her death, because these are not the times of martyrs. And we Cubans should know this. The death of Oswaldo Payá did not pose any danger to the regime, on the contrary, and if he were still alive perhaps the opposition would have the leadership that we lack today.
It would be terrible if, within one decade instead of three, Latin America doubled its number of dictatorships. And it would be terrible if the international community continued to do nothing about it. While politicians dither, companies only want to profit, and while ordinary people become increasingly polarized on social media, we are creating the perfect world for dictatorships to spread, like a pandemic.
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